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that a democratic Arab state would provide a peaceful counterbalance to the grassroots support radical Islamic terror enjoys in the Mid-East. It didn't. Even assuming Iraq fully stabilizes, its birth pains will have likely been bad enough to prevent it from becoming an Arab shining city on a hill, at least any time in the near future.
Now the issue at hand has changed. If the US can't stabilize Iraq by the time we pull out (assuming a Democratic victory in 08, this gives the military three more years to do so) advocates of terror will have learned a very dangerous lesson; they can destabilize the developing world regardless of developed world intervention.
Terrorism is as much about economies of scale as it is about spectacular violence. I don't think we will see another 9/11 style attack. That type of terror is going the way of the dinosaur. It's too expensive, requires too much effort, and produces too much backlash. The terror of the future is infrastructure terror, small attacks against the machinery that makes modern life function. When infrastructure crumbles, governments crumble along with it.
When a government loses legitimacy, one of two things happens. Either another government rises to take its place, or society fractures along ethnic or religious boundaries and plunges into chaos. Terrorist groups lack the ability to replace the state, and the state lacks the ability to stop terror, so the first option is highly unlikely in the long term. The second is almost guaranteed.
Today's economy is globalized. If the infrastructure of a nation holds its society together, the infrastructure of all nations is supporting our collective economies. Every time a pillar is brought down, the rest need to prop up more weight.
To destroy our way of life, terrorists need only to collapse the infrastructure of the world's weaker nations. Iraq is teaching them how to do this, and teaching them they can succeed at it. If that nation does manage to overcome the forces trying to tear it down, with our help or without, it will have sent a powerful message to violet radicals of all kinds around the world.
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