Carlyle Group Co-founder: "We are not at the end of this liquidity and credit crunch."

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Carlyle Tycoon Lowers His Gaze to Discover a Vision

Carlyle Tycoon Lowers His Gaze to Discover a Vision
After Befriending Street People, Conway Opens His Wallet

By Thomas Heath
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, January 21, 2008; Page D01

When he isn't crisscrossing the globe in search of investment opportunities, Carlyle Group co-founder William E. Conway Jr. will often take a few minutes in the morning to consult with five guys named Earl, Norman, Sam, Lorenzo and Tim.

They aren't bankers. They aren't rich investors. They don't own sports teams and aren't looking for stock tips. They are homeless.
....

Conway is providing $5 million to serve as equity so the charity can borrow or raise $125 million more from individual donors, city government, banks and commercial lenders. It's the same financial leverage model that made him worth $2.5 billion, according to Forbes magazine, and may potentially build 1,000 homes.
....

A McLean resident, Conway is a regular at Burning Tree Club in Bethesda, and a Catholic who attends mass most mornings. He co-founded Carlyle in 1987 with Rubenstein and Daniel A. D'Aniello. The firm says it has returned 26 percent annually to its investors, including giant pension funds, foreign governments, wealthy individuals and endowments. Carlyle manages about $75 billion. It buys companies, then streamlines or grows them and sells the firms.
....

This is no time to go public, he said.

"We are not at the end of this liquidity and credit crunch," he said. "We are nearer the beginning than we are the end. This is going to spread from mortgages to credit cards to student loans and auto loans. It's going to go everywhere. The economy is going to be relatively weaker, at least for another year, than it has been the last five years. There are very significant problems ahead."

He said the mess spilling out from the mortgage meltdown and the ensuing slowdown will create a few remarkable opportunities for investors like Carlyle that are sitting on billions.
....

"Sellers are unwilling to recognize that their assets are not what they were worth six months ago," Conway said. "Be it a home, or stock in the market or a business office building, they are not worth what they were. In time, people will sell who have to sell. The assets you want to buy are the ones people have to sell.

OK, so let's review. He's worth $2.5 billion. Carlyle says it has returned 26 percent annually to its investors. Carlyle manages about $75 billion. He thinks we're only at the beginning of the credit crisis. Do you think I should listen to him?

[ursi]

1. well, the true impact is yet to come

[Sadie5]

2. I personally think it will be bad

for at least another year. I feel for those who had to live on credit cards because of health problems or job loss. I also feel that Bush can hardly wait to get the hell out and leave this Hooveresque mess he has created.

[bulloney]

3. And it will all be Bill Clinton's fault! If not, then Jimmy Carter's.

[Jackpine Radical]

4. Should you listen? Well...

as a general principle, I always ask myself what the motives might be when someone like that opens his mouth in public--why does he want us th think that? However, in this case, I believe him, not because he says thins, but because there is plenty of independent evidence that he's right. I thought we were in for seriously bad times before I read this, and I still think so after reading it.

[Orwellian_Ghost]

5. Creeps

K&R

[aquart]

6. Gosh, ain't he clever.

Not to mention insufficiently taxed.

[DaveJ]

7. A credit crisis that's bad for us or him??

To be honest, I think these billionairs are worried about an impending crisis that would come in the form of a Democratic government that would offer them no more free rides. They are 'winners'. They don't have any compulsion to care about the rest of us. Apparently he's 'researching' the homeless to get an idea of what people like us think. He's accustomed to a compliant population which actually cares about his financial affairs, but that time has past.

[Tansy_Gold]

9. For us. Can't you see him rubbing his hands in greedy glee

at the thought of all those "assets" that people are going to (have to) sell at bargain basement prices, so he can buy them and "make money" off them?

Asshole. Stinking asshole. I wonder just how many of those homeless people are homeless directly or indirectly because of Carlyle Group prosperity?

Asshole.



Tansy gold

[peacetalksforall]

8. I can't believe anyone who places the cause on mortagages and fails to mention the cost of killing,

invading, pillaging, plundering, torturing, tormenting, creating exiles, blasting people back to pre-basics, setting up private mercenaries and giving them to the State Dept to work closely or not so closedly with the Pentagon, creating untold costs for medical care or pretend care, plus the cost of buying coalition partners, creating set-ups like the cost of the Niger letter pay-outs, stealing every dime possible from us so that we struggle to pay the utilities. Then they dig in the heels and continue to spend for their private gain.

The Fed moves in to control the meltdown - who is going to move in to control the killing and debt?

No, I absolutely don't have any trust in anyone who doesn't factor in the cost of all the killing and accompanying thefts and crimes. Factor in the cost of lawsuits that have already taken place and are to come if they let us keep the courts. At a certain time, they will no longer believe that they have to keep up the pretense of a democracy. They probably have set the date.

All this piece did was issue a warning - if you are going to have to lose something because of this crises - we're moving in tobuy it if we want it. That's all they are about.

I keep asking myself why this throne let it go down this far - it's about more gain for the already 'gained'. This is about more control. This is to send a clear message - we are no longer free and there is no equal opportunity.

[307 MMS]

10. CG

Do some research on the Carlyle Group, of which GHWB was a member of along with James Baker, et al. Not a nice bunch. This guy feeling guilty or?