The war is going to get worse, and it will help the Republicans:

[rateyes]

Here's what is going to happen, IMO, and how it will be spun by McCain and the Repukes---and, how it will be portrayed in the complicit media---and, how it will help the Republicans this fall:

A big part of the reason for the reduction in violence in Iraq has been the 6-month ceasefire on the part of Muqtada al-Sadr's army. Those forces are now asking al-Sadr not to extend the ceasefire, and he has indicated that he might not. See: http://www.kxmc.com/News/202395.asp

The spin has been that the reduction in violence has been the military "surge" of American troops. Petraeus has said that he will start cutting back on the US military presence (to pre-surge levels). This draw down will coincide with the end of al Sadr's ceasefire. Violence will increase---not because of a reduction in US Military forces, but because of the end of the ceasefire, BUT McCain and the Republicans will use the upsurge in violence to the drawing down of the troops and use it as "proof" that the surge "worked" and that we need to surge again...playing right into the hands of a McCain candidacy.

And, the spineless Democrats in Congress will cave once again on drawing down troops from Iraq.

We had better get ahead of this story, and start warning people now. If we count on the the MSM to tell this story, we're screwed, again. My bet is that a vast majority of Americans (and, probably Democrats) didn't even know about this ceasefire, because we keep playing into the assertion that, at least, the military end of the surge is working. It's not. It never has.

But, it will be framed that way, unless we reframe it to reflect the truth, right now.

[Johonny]

1. They don't have the troops to surge again

Not unless they plan to draft people. It's well know the Surge draw down is set at the point not of any logical military goal reason but at a level when the military can no longer supply the troops needed for the surge.

[PATRICK]

2. Taking the initiative

smartly and forcefully is exactly what is needed. No matter how dumb and disastrous and fixated the GOP strategy is, they always retain the initiative and final word. Waiting for the Dems to notice that. That and crooked voting apparatus, treason, etc.. Those little details.

The fall candidate must TAKE the initiative and keep it. For once, just once shove aside the Bush offerings and not rely on his rather reliable but costly failures.

[wuushew]

3. I feel the long term political outcomes are better served by having an Iraqi Tet in 2008.

Iraq is doomed. The benchmarks are a joke and the structure of the country is decaying more rapidly than oil revenue or U.S. funding can halt. The culmative cost and wear on our military machine is unsustainable, so it is only a matter of time before we get the hell out of Dodge.

Foreign policy setbacks are always blamed on the administration in office. Iraq will be the equivalent of what "losing China" was to Truman. Republicans will use this to make hay and undermine any Congressional gains Democrats may have made.

[sinkingfeeling]

4. War? What war? You mean the occupation of Iraq.

[Swamp Rat]

5. That is why the republicans started this conflict in the first place,

to help them steal the world's resources and our national treasury.

GOP = Pro war, mass murdering, rapers of the Earth.

[B Calm]

6. I look for a lot of friendly fire with casualties from Blackwater troops.