They aren't making any more oil. Don't be priced out forever. It's different in oil.

[El Pinko]

Now is the time to buy, because oil always goes up! Slap some marble counters on that oil and you can flip it with a 20% profit!


:eyes: :sarcasm:

[Mojorabbit]

1. Why do you think

it isn't a finite natural resource? It may be overpriced due to speculators right now but we sure aren't making any more of it.

[DS1]

2. I think it was a sarcastic statement on our previous housing boom

;-)

[El Pinko]

4. Exactly. Housing will continue to crash to about 2001 levels and then eventually rise again...

...and peak oil will eventually bring oil prices back to where they are now, but for now we are seeing price increases totally out of whack with the supply/demand situation.

I wonder how insane it will get before the crash? $150/bl?

[El Pinko]

3. It's also true that they are not making any more land...

...that didn't make the RE bubble any less of a bubble.

[selador]

5. bingo

scariest words you can hear in ANY bubble

'it's different this time'

i daytrade, and have studied many of them - tulips, oil, gold, real estate, nikkei, etc. etc.

same pattern

immense profit opportunities are found when you understand how the lemmings work

[Leopolds Ghost]

7. Wrong again.

The housing bubble has been created by mass illegal immigration coupled
with artificial scarcity of traditional urban development patterns,
which are illegal in the US and thus more expensive than heroin.
If illegal immigration were prosecuted to the extent parking and FAR
restrictions are prosecuted to limit low-income multi-family housing,
the demand would collapse and the supply would boom, reversing the
bubble.

However, in a country with a SANE ENVIRONMENTAL policy, developable land,
like gold and UNLIKE OIL, is a FIXED resource that can only shrink and
shrink and SHRINK compared to an unsustainably booming Malthusian
population "bubble" fueled by oil energy inputs.

[selador]

10. not wrong

bubbles are the same.

i've studied them and the market for years.

it doesn't MATTER what causes the bubble, as to the nature of bubble dynamics. that's because primarily all bubbles are products of markets where humans make decisions, and human psychology remains as it is (don't get me started on black box algo trading though)

and in the real estate bubble, there are always people looking to lay blame (and blame can be laid several places - irresponsibile buyers, overly aggressive predatory lenders) but the reality is that bubbles are not ipso facto "bad"

personally, i love them because they offer IMMENSE opportunity for growth of wealth, for people who pay attention and don't get swept up by emotion.

friend of mine, very talented trader did a great comparison of the nikkei, gold (in the 80's), real estate, tech stock bubbles based on logarithmic charts.

the similarities are astounding.

see: greater fool theory.

[Leopolds Ghost]

6. Uh, you seem not to understand supply and demand.

Peak Oil is a non-renewable CONSUMABLE resource whose supply vs. demand will continue to DROP and DROP and DROP.

Anyone who does not think the price of oil will continue to go up (in adjusted real value) until it becomes a luxury commodity is a fool.

Gold and Silver used to be much more common in the earth.

The price was dictated by the amount in the ground.

Now there is no easily accessible gold or silver in the earth (except for tailings) we have used it all up.

Gold, silver and diamonds are IN CIRCULATION, however. They do not get CONSUMED.

So the price of gold silver and diamonds goes up ONLY as a CURRENCY
alternative to the falling petrodollar (as the price of foreign oil
goes up and up, destroying the dollar's buying power, gold becomes a
more attractive currency).

AND the price of gold and (more significantly) diamonds is MANAGED
by the ultra-rich, who control international institutions (like the Fed,
which manages several privately-owned federal reserve wealth stockpiles)
that stockpile non-consumable commodities like gold and diamonds to
KEEP the PRICE HIGH.

If all these stockpiles were looted, it would be revealed that the
dollar is purely propped up as a medium of exchange for oil (which
will continue to go up and up, meaning the dollar is doomed unless
you own gold or oil or stocks invested in oil and other resources)
and that Fort Knox is mostly empty. All the gold and diamonds are
in private hands (or privately-owned "federal reserve" banks that
are actually owned by the wealthiest elite investor families on a
restricted basis.)

The price of gold and diamonds would drop like a stone if these
stockpiles were looted, destroing the "promised/implied" buying power
of the super-rich by increasing the amount in circulation, followed
by a deflationary crash when folks realize that there is no more gold
or diamonds to be had from the earth or in banks, and begin hoarding
in beds and safe deposit boxes.

There is no similar stockpile of lite sweet oil to "manage" the price
of oil, save for the depleting reservoirs in Saudi Arabia itself. It
is a commodity that can be only used up.

Anyone who believes the price of oil will eventually go down as supplies
grow less and less is a fool.

Even if we return to a medieval economy, like Albania, what little
oil-based economy is left will be a niche market commodity worth
more than gold.

Like the pepper and spices that powered the Dutch Protestant
Capitalist Empire that created the concept of modern western
financial and legal institutions.

[Occulus]

9. You took the OP about 99.5% too seriously n/t

[El Pinko]

12. LOLOL.

I love your funny theories about illegal immigration causing the housing bubble. Good one!



"Peak Oil is a non-renewable CONSUMABLE resource whose supply vs. demand will continue to DROP and DROP and DROP.

Anyone who does not think the price of oil will continue to go up (in adjusted real value) until it becomes a luxury commodity is a fool.

Gold and Silver used to be much more common in the earth."

Hee hee. Even better! By all means, since it is going to only go up and up, I suggest you buy oil futures big time, RIGHT NOW! Why you'll be rolling in dough because the oil spigot is being turned off.



"Anyone who believes the price of oil will eventually go down as supplies
grow less and less is a fool."

That's not what I said - prices will be coming down short term. During the course of the next year, I'd wager (although pump prices will be slow to reflect that, as ususal).

There will probably be some more oil rallies, too, but the demand/supply peak oil price pressures are still several years off. The price pressures we see now are 90% speculation.




"Gold and Silver used to be much more common in the earth.

The price was dictated by the amount in the ground.

Now there is no easily accessible gold or silver in the earth (except for tailings) we have used it all up."


Perhaps, but unlike oil, gold and silver can be recycled...

[rucky]

8. As someone in the mortgage biz...

that shit's funny.

[hunter]

11. Right and wrong.

It's the demand destruction that kills you.

It's a choice of being hacked to death or flattened under a press.

You can have a nice slow steady increase in oil prices that gradually suffocates the economy, or you can have wild speculative price swings slicing away at it until it bleeds to death.

Either way, demand has to fall to match declining production.

:woohoo:

[El Pinko]

13. Crude production has yet to decline at all...

As a matter of fact, even when price per barrel has fallen in the last several years, the oil companies have been deliberately cutting REFINING capacity here in the US in a deliberate attempt to bottleneck gasoline and keep prices high - they are making profits hand over fist and using Enron tactics to do it.

Also, gasoline demand in the US has fallen - almost 2% in the last 2 years.

This article is about California, but gasoline consumption nationwide has dropped, too.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/03/09/BU6QVEVD3.DTL&hw=gasoline&sn=005&sc=827


I also don't think that long-term higher prices must necessarily suffocate the economy. If most people would simply switch to fuel-efficient cars and use transit when possible, it would be enough to keep pump prices lower and help lower some of the added shipping costs for food and other commodities.

(Of course this is based on the assumption that the oil companies will stop shutting down all their refineries for "maintenance" *see Enron)

[hunter]

14. Everything the oil companies do is consistant with peak oil.

Why build new refineries if you can't expect to fuel them? Why not scrimp on the maintenance of supposedly valuable assets?

Once world oil production has peaked, which it seems to have done, there is no point in expanding your market share by undercutting your competition because the overall market has to shrink. It makes more sense to merge with your competition, and maximize profits as the entire industry rides the production curve down.

If oil prices do go down (which they may) it will be entirely by demand destruction, not by the deflation of some supposed "bubble." If the price of sweet crude ever goes down to $60, as some here have suggested, look around then and you'll see the smoldering economic ruins of entire industries.

People in the United States are not going to rush out and buy new fuel efficient cars as the price of gas increases because rising oil prices and declining real wages will interfere with their ability to afford new cars. Most people will simply drive less.

I think we are looking at an economy that is circling the drain. We are in the position now of a gambling addict attempting to gain back his original stakes by making increasingly risky bets -- deep oil in the Gulf of Mexico, Iraq, Arctic oil, LNG imports, synthetic fuels from coal, ethanol, biodiesel...

None of these things can support the kind of economy we built with the easy oil. It used to be you could simply drill a hole in the ground -- with a wooden platform even -- and the oil would pour out. In some places, for an investment of one barrel of oil, you could get ninety-nine barrels of oil back.

Those days are long gone. Sorry.

©