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Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 10:35 AM by El Pinko
They're right. It won't be as bad. It will be much, much worse.
They are fond of pointing out that US real estate was never as overvalued as Japanese real estate got.
That's debatable, since the insane prices were mostly only in Osaka and Tokyo. The US housing bubble encompassed most of California, Florida, DC Metro, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and to a lesser degree Seattle, Boston and even a few burgs in Idaho and Montana. And there was a little bit of bubble just about everywhere, translating into trillions in imaginary, speculation-produced "equity" which has now evaporated.
Why will it be worse in the US? Japan's bubble was a direct result of it's habit of SAVING money. After 2 prosperous decades, the Japanese middle class had built up sizeable nest eggs and were look for good places to invest them, so they looked to land, both in Japan and in the US.
Where did the capital for OUR real estate bubble come from? US savers? HA. It came from...yup - savers in Japan and new asian tiger China! Americans borrowed their money and bought houses they couldn't afford, or took out equity loans to buy plasma screens they didn't need, and when the air came out of it, the Asian investors were left empty-handed by American profligates.
When Japan's bubble deflated in the early 90s, Japanese banks were left with a lot of bad debt which they took FOREVER to get off their books, making it an unusually long recession.
But Japanese consumers still kept saving. And unlike America, Japan didn't do its damndest to offshore all of its manufacturing to the third world, so that even today, it still has a substantial manufacturing base, and a much broader middle class than the US, whose society is quickly being sorted into rich and poor only. Japan still has one of the largest public account surpluses in the world while the US has by far the largest current account deficit. (in other words, Japan continues to add real capital to its economy while the US continues to add nothing but debt)
Most Japanese have some savings to fall back on. The US savings rate is less than zero.
So here's why I think it will be so much worse in the US. Foreign savers' trust in the US as a place to invest will be so shaken by this debacle that their capital will not be coming back to American businesses for decades, if ever. Wealthy Americans have some capital, but most of it is probably already invested. And if there is anything left of the middle class in a couple of years, they will be just trying to stay afloat and will be in no position to invest in anything anymore. And the lower 40% have been barely hanging on for decades now.
I don't know if I stated this very coherently at all, but it just seems to me that there is nobody left to bail us out. It seems that when this is done, we'll be pretty much a third world country - basically another Mexico, with walled rich enclaves surrounded by sprawling slums.
But at some point our dollar will be so worthless and people so desperate, that foreign capital will start to come back in. And it will be the Japanese and the Chinese looking to us to provide THEM with cheap manufacturing labor.
Let's just hope that our future foreign overlords are kind enough to pay us in cash and not scrip for the "company store".
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