Early push begins to oust freshman Dem Rep. McNerney (CA)

[L. Coyote]

Early push begins to oust McNerney
Contra Costa Times - 03/23/2008 - http://www.contracostatimes.com/columns/ci_8669643


Campaign managers have a saying: "Eighty percent of what we do is wasted. We just don't know which 80 percent."

That old saw may prove especially prescient in the GOP campaign to unseat Democratic freshman Rep. Jerry McNerney of Pleasanton and replace him with Republican Dean Andal of Stockton in November.

"I saw stuff coming out about McNerney a year ago," said Allan Hoffenblum, author of the California Target Book and a former GOP campaign consultant. "We used to wait until at least after Labor Day. Campaigning is year-round now."

Since last fall, the National Republican Congressional Committee has sent out several dozen e-mail blasts with titles such as, "Jerry McNerney Runs for Political Cover" and "Jerry McNerney Put Partisanship above Protecting America." ...

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[tularetom]

1. This guy defeated the super oily richard pombo in 2006

but he's turned out to bee somewhat of a DINO. Still, a lot of work went into getting this seat in the D column and it would be a shame to see it go down the shitter.

[L. Coyote]

3. Abramoff rubbed off too much. Too bad he did not bring down Bush in '04 too

but McCain saved Bush with his Senate Comm. cover-up.

[Xithras]

2. I said it would be a hard seat to hold when he won it. (warning: long)

Disclaimer: The 11th districts southern boundary literally runs along the back edge of my land, but I don't live in it.

Politically, this area is dominated by conservative Democrats and even more conservative Republicans. Liberal Democrats, and especially politically active ones, are rare around here. The vast majority of the effort behind McNerneys campaign came from Democratic activists in the neighboring Bay Area, and not from local efforts. Still, it wasn't even their efforts that ousted Pombo.

As the numbers from the last election showed, McNerney didn't so much win, as much as Pombo just lost. Pombo could have easily beaten McNerney if his previous supporters had stayed true, but his actions were so over the top that most local Republicans were sick of him, and they stayed home in droves. Quite a few were so angry at the local Republican party apparatchik for supporting him again, that they even voted for McNerney as a way to "punish" their local party leaders (and it worked, many local Republican political leaders were ousted after the defeat). McNerney was even endorsed by politically prominent local REPUBLICANS, including the Republican who ran against Pombo in the primary. There was a party crossover that has never been seen in this area before. When you coupled Pombo's complete loss of local support with McNerneys financial and manpower support from the Bay Area activists, Pombo didn't have a chance. Most people around here believe that Pete McCloskey would have defeated Pombo and ended Pombo's reign of terror anyway, if McNerney hadn't run. Pombo only won the primary because local conservatives feared running the old and politically out of the loop McCloskey against a Bay Area Democrat.

The problem for McNerney is, and always has been, that KEEPING the seat is a harder fight than winning it. The anger that accompanied Pombo went away with him, and it's extremely unlikely that the Republicans will vote for a Democrat this time around. If the old voting numbers return and the Republicans run a solid and locally acceptable candidate, he has no chance of winning. McNerneys only opportunity to keep the seat required him to take a hard right politically to fit in with the political needs of his district, and to adopt the "local politics" theme that has always dominated the area (i.e., he needed to become more like neighboring Valley Democrat Dennis Cardoza, a well known Blue Dog despised by party liberals). While he has moved significantly to the right since his election (alienating most of his Bay Area liberal Democratic supporters in the process), he has failed to connect with the Valley and is primarily active in the Contra Costa region at the western edge of the district. To most of the voters in the Valley, where this election will be won or lost, he's still perceived as a Bay Area "outsider" without any connection to the local political scenes. That perception will be hugely problematic for him in the next election, since he's running in an area with a century long history of rebelling against the well deserved perception of "Bay Area political domination".

The only advantage we have right now is that the local Rethugs still haven't floated a candidate capable of generating any enthusiasm. Dean Andal is the name most commonly tossed around, and while he does have a long political history in the area and is respected by local conservatives, he's also seen as a friend of real estate development, which is a big downside in a region weary of endless sprawl, leery of becoming the next LA basin, still reeling from being Ground Zero in the real estate implosion, and so financially dependent on an agricultural economy that Andals developer friends are so keenly intent on destroying. If we can hang his friendship with Gerry Kamilos and the big developers around his neck, it might be enough to bring him down. Then again, Pombo was a land speculator himself (still is, his company is still very active around here) and conservative loyalty was enough to overcome it. And if an even more conservatively appealing Republican candidate comes along, we'll have an even bigger problem keeping McNerney in his seat.

Yes, I am pessimistic about keeping the seat. I can count on one hand the number of actual area residents I've met who are genuinely enthused about him holding the seat. Most people are indifferent, and many see his holding the seat as a temporary necessity to oust Pombo, but nothing more. There is a widespread, almost unquestioned local assumption that the Republicans will take the seat back in the next election, even among local Democrats. With their huge voter advantage in the district, I'm inclined to agree. I'll work to stop it, of course, but the district was designed as a "safe" Republican seat and all the positive thoughts in the world aren't going to overcome that fact. Short of McNerney pulling a Lieberman on us, or a total implosion of the local Republican party, I can't see how any other outcome is really possible.