A drastic development in Iraq

[kpete]

Wednesday, March 26, 2008
A drastic development in Iraq
by A.J. Rossmiller · 3/26/2008 08:10:00 AM ET


I've been closely following the situation in Iraq over the past day or so, and although I often downplay hysterics with regard to minor changes in political or military processes (in Iraq and elsewhere), this time the developments really could be a big deal. For nearly seven months, the militia loyal to Shia cleric and political leader Moqtada al-Sadr has observed a self-imposed ceasefire. Despite frequent analysis crediting the "surge" for reductions in violence, there's a strong correlation between this ceasefire and the drop in casualties. Along with a few other major factors (waning of ethnic cleansing, buying off insurgents in Anbar, shift in counterinsurgency strategy), the ceasefire had a big impact on the security improvements.

All of that, however, may evaporate in a hail of bullets if the current Sadrist "civil disobedience" campaign brings the simmering rift between rival Shia groups into sustained open conflict. One of the most frustrating things about mainstream Iraq analysis is that it tends to talk about worst case scenarios for leaving but best case for staying; well, there are some pretty bad possibilities for if we continue an occupation with no political strategy, and a full-blown Shia vs. Shia civil war is among the worst. For years the insurgency was overwhelmingly Sunni, which means the fighters were drawn from about 20% of the population. The Shia, on the other hand, are around 60% of the country. The problems are obvious and significant.

And, of course, this development was predictable -- and predicted. I've been warning about antagonizing Sadrists unnecessarily, as have others -- Eric Martin is one of many Iraq observers who saw this coming, and he has a comprehensive rundown of the history here. Bottom line, this is something that could change the dynamic considerably after a period of security improvements. For the millionth time, without a political solution, things will ultimately continue to get worse, not better.

http://www.americablog.com/2008/03/drastic-development-in-iraq.html
http://www.democracyarsenal.org/2008/03/potentially-ver.html

[bdamomma]

1. kick

[Jeffersons Ghost]

2. K&R

[Dhalgren]

3. Kick! Thanks, pete...

[madokie]

4. and as long as the usa mission is to take their natural resources it will remain the same

as now, chaos. Americans may be uninformed, or better yet misinformed, about bushco's mission but the rest of the world is well aware of what is going on.
We must never forget in those same eyes we as citizens are complicit in all this. Its time for us to rise up and put a stop to this

[gordianot]

5. United States political solution, we do not seem to be able to resolve our own problems.

Once upon a time there was a Democratic Republican division. Now there is division between Democrats. We are definitely not a good role model.

Iraq should not expect help from the United States for any kind of political solution. it is not like they had a choice to begin with.

[kentuck]

6. That means W needs another huge supplemental...

To bribe them once again, as he has for the last year.

[Orwellian_Ghost]

7. K&R n/t

[libodem]

8. Well

I'd be good for a while if it netted me 300,000,000. We were handing out money to those guys to keep them from fighting with us and each other. I think that was the figure I saw last night on Frontline. Repukes think they can fix anything by throwing money at it except maybe public schools and health care. Crush, kill, destroy. Not clear, hold, build. What building? Who can blame the insurgents? They are fighting invaders and occupiers of their country. They are the, 'Give me liberty or give me death guys', in this story.

[spanone]

9. K&R shit is meeting fan

[mike_c]

10. you'll appreciate this lovely Mr. Fish....

[spanone]

12. thanks lol

[applegrove]

11. So true.

[IDemo]

13. I posted on the reality of "Surge Success" awhile back. Dropped like a rock.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2937243

[me b zola]

14. And do you know how this will get spun by the corporate media?

The corporate media will not lay out the facts as Rossmiller has done. Rather, they will do the old and familiar 'Iranian backed Moqtada al-Sadr' has increased it's attacks upon Iraq and American interests.

To the best of my recollection, it was last April when the Pentagon--and reporters with ties to the Pentagon--began labeling every act of violence committed by Shia as "Iranian backed", and every act of violence committed by Sunni as "al Qaeda in Iraq". Except of course McCain gets the memos mixed up due to dementia, but that's another story.

So my prediction is that the truth about "the surge" will be spun into reasons why the American public should be scared of and support military action against Iran. This will be used to beat the war drums.

[balantz]

15. K&R

Thanks for contributing this. This kind of reporting and discussion is why I continue to check in to DU.

[Usrename]

16. Al-Sadr is reported wounded.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3244291

[WilliamPitt]

17. The link & story are from 2004

[Usrename]

18. Thanks,

I don't remember him being wounded.

[druidity33]

19. this mornings news...

i put up a post with a few links in it about what's happening in Sadr City, Basra, etc

it's here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3244668&mesg_id=3244668

and there's this:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3066544&mesg_id=3066544

[cornermouse]

20. I think the roof is caving in on Bush and unfortunately, our

guys as well. They are and have been hitting the "Green Zone" for, what, a week now? A group of Iraqis carried a coffin with what's his name's face in front of an American flag plastered to it, but hey they love us and want us there? Not! Afghanistan is calling for more soldiers which we're going to have to supply? Where are they going to get them from? Everything is falling apart. We never should have gone into Iraq. It's time to get out. Now.

[lebkuchen]

21. According to Bush, the more deaths we sustain, the greater the success!

I wish I could slap the shit out of everyone who voted for this duffus twice.

[cornermouse]

22. I have similar feelings.