Where can we find no-spin information on the economy?

[CoffeeCat]

I've been at home the past several days with CNBC on in the background. I
am astounded at the pro-corporate spin about the economy.

Most of the talking heads say what a great time it is to get into the stock
market, because there are some great bargains. I understand "buy low, sell high."
However, there is so much more going on in the economy right now. It's not just
that the stock market has experienced losses--it's other things.

What about the falling value of the dollar?

What about other investments? Is this really a good time to put money in the market?
What about gold? What about stuffing it in your mattress?

Speaking of your mattress...are the banks safe?

The talking heads laugh it off when people say, "recession." They're sugar coating this.
Am I wrong about my analysis? I'm not an economist, but I see an economic bust. Our
economy was propped up on credit-card spending and people taking out home-equity loans.
People are maxed out on credit and now it's nearly impossible to get those home-equity loans.

This means a slow down. Combine this decreased spending with the large numbers of people who
will lose their homes and start their lives over in apartments or their parents' basements.
They'll stop spending. The same people who were buying riding lawn mowers, granite countertops
and Pottery Barn--are now just buying the essentials.

Speaking of essentials---food prices are through the fricking roof, as are gas prices. People on
fixed incomes will be hurting. Many middle and upper-middle class people are affected by food
and gas prices--enough to affect their spending habits. People will have less money for entertainment,
movies, eating at restaurants, travel, furniture, etc.

I do not see how our current economic situation avoids deeply affecting small businesses. This
will cause business failures and rising unemployment.

The housing market will cause other area homes to be devalued, and also loss of property taxes---
causing revenue losses on the state and local levels.

All of this spells worse than recession to me. I'm not saying a depression, but somewhere in
between a recession and a depression seems likely. No doubt, many people will be hit with
depression-like circumstances!

Am I totally off base? I'm forced to figure this out on my own--because the happy-talk, corporate-backed
hacks don't want to give me the facts. Their glossed over version, makes me feel as if it's a lot
worse than they're telling--because they're working hard to put on a happy face.

Any insight, information, idea or good resources is much appreciated.

[rwheeler31]

1. Financial Times UK

[Juche]

2. No idea honestly

I have been reading liberal sites for economic issues like EPI or CBPP, but I don't know where to find unbiased info aside from RAND and they cover it peripherally.

[Duer 157099]

3. The best way to judge is go shopping

go fill up your tank, go food shopping, go to the mall, and then go look at the job listings on Craigslist (or wherever) and look at the salaries ($10-15/hour) and then get the classifieds and look at the housing prices.

Do the math, just in your head, and you already know the answer. Which you already knew anyway.

The talking heads on TV are doing what they are paid to do, by the ones in whose interest it is to put that message out there.

[Ilsa]

4. The govt numbers are always wrong now. They get "corrected"

a few months down the road. IOW, Bush has his minions lie about them util they can't cover any more.

I think when you are this close to technically being in a recession, you are there already.

I run a very small business out of my home. Grocery money kind of income. I am finding that I am referring more customers to state agencies for their needs, and people are asking me to hold their checks a little longer because they won't clear for another payday. It is definitely slowing down.

The FDIC is hiring back retired examiners to help with prospective bank failures. They are increasing the size of this dept by 40%. Bank failures are a pretty good indicator that cash is slowing down in its turnover. I don't know how reliable the M1, M2, M3, numbers are anymore if Bush gets a chance to do fuzzy math with them.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

5. In the secret private corporate memos we do not have access to...

sorry. :(

[Birthmark]

6. Stock Market Watch thread here on DU

It has the best, most up-to-date information and several people who know their stuff. It's an education.

Alternatively, you can go to the government websites. The information is always there. Just forget what you hear in the media and look at the raw numbers. For example, we hear that the "unemployment rate" was 4.8% in February. We both know that that is no reflection of what's going on. If you go here: http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm and look at the numbers, you'll be able to ascertain why that unemployment rate is so low --the civilian labor force *shrank* by about 450,000 people. Meantime, the number of people Not in Labor Force *grew* by about 640,000. So we know now why the unemployment rate shrank even though you and I know that the job market isn't good.

Remember, the government numbers always have to balance. They can't claim that the Civilian Population shrank. If they did, it would quickly be pointed out and everyone would KNOW that they were lying. Instead, they'll play around with categories. But in the end the numbers always have to balance out.

The same is true for almost all government statistics. The real info is there, but you have to look at the raw numbers rather than listen to the crap the media spew. It takes some work and some patience.

Or you can check out the Stock Market Watch thread every time stats come out. :)

[bananas]

7. Catherine Austin Fitts will be on Flashpoints weekly

She was on the Wednesday, March 26, 2008 show about 40 minutes in.
www.flashpoints.net

[lligrd]

8. Visit The Economy Forum nt

[Warpy]

9. You're not off base

The problem is one of maldistribution brought on by years of tax codes favoring the richest, of deliberate depression of wages and destruction of unions, and the attempt to keep the whole thing running by offering us worker bees easy access to a lot of debt, debt that is largely uncollectable but which was cut into pieces and laundered into exotic assets for big money to trade back and forth.

Now the banks and brokerages are starting to take a look at all these exotic assets and realizing that most of them are backed with nothing but a lot of bum loans in Florida and California. That's why every week you read of one of them posting a big writeoff. They're parceling the bad news out in driblets in order to forestall panic and keep the game going.

What can we worker bees do about it? Not a hell of a lot at this stage of the game. Getting as far out of debt as we can will be a start, because all those teaser loan rates on mortgages and credit cards are due to skyrocket as banks try to salvage what they can from a tapped out population.

What they've done is create a situation in which people are simply stretched out and can no longer support the 2/3 of the economy represented by the consumer market. Their debt is at the breaking point, meaning they're paying so much of their income to service it every month there's barely enough left over for food and transportation to work to earn money to pay to service the debt.

I would strongly suggest anyone of extremely modest means to get out of debt and then stick to insured investments instead of that mattress. At least the insured investment will generate token interest and won't be vulnerable to thieves and house fires.

The stock market will likely trend downward until Stupid & Co. are out of office and the crazies are out of power in Congress. The long term trend of the market has always been up, but it took 20 years for it to recover after the last time the Republics fouled up the economy to this stage.

As for the paid talking heads on CNBC, just follow the money. That's who they're working for, not me or thee.

[On the Road]

10. I Believe the Best Sources

are those who put a lot of their own investment money on the line and have done well over time.

On the stock market, one source I frequently look at is Clearstation, especially the NASDAQ discussion board. There are bulls, bears, and people from both parties represented. It's not a magic bullet -- there is none -- but it's a window into what a variety of people are saying right now. Another source on the market I like is Decisionpoint, run by an independent technical analyst. Ont he free portion, he has a "chart spotlight" updated every 2-3 weeks and a collection of daily analyses from other private sites on another link.

On economics, I like Brad deLong's blog. Also, while I've never read it, www.argmax.com is supposedly a very good economics blog that's slightly left of center.

However, if you're looking for a source that will provide the outcome of todays' problems (or whatever the current problems are), it doesn't exist. At any given time, it's possible to argue both ways about the economic future.

[alittlelark]

11. We've been hanging w/ this site for 2+ years

http://www.shadowstats.com/


There is a fee, but we have more than re-couped it to the tune of 1000x. You can also google the site and find info that will help.

The bottom line for us was getting our $$$$ out of this 'mafia -controlled' country.



We have done very well.