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Stinky The Clown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:12 PM
Original message
How much longer can the American lifestyle sustain itself?
The UAW reports that union membership is at its lowest level since 1941 ... fewer than 475,000 members.

GM (or was it Chrysler??) has announced it will start using some Chinese-made engines. GM is working on a completely Chinese manufactured car for US intro in the near future.

The Chinese Marketing Consortium (actually, I mean WalMart) has hinted they, too, could start selling a Chinese car soon.

So there you have it. Our once vaunted auto industry is shit. Our biggest domestic brands are .... Japanese.

At the grocery today, almost all the produce was from non-US sources.

We graduate fewer scientists and engineers than a frightening number of other countries. US 'ingenuity' is way overrated. Our young people are getting less and less actual education as we teach only to some bullshit tests.

Our entire economy is running on credit.

Our food prices are up as we divert land that was once used to raise food to raising grain for ethanol fuel stocks.

We import damned near everything. No country can sustain that sort of trade imbalance very long.

To compound things, our dollar is falling to worthlessness.

Besides armaments, and trouble, what do we - or better yet, what **can** we - export? I can't see anything substantial.

The US is getting its economic ass kicked around the world. We're in debt to everyone and are rapidly racing toward third world status.

And yet we hear about the American Dream and other election year platitudes.

People .... we're really in deep shit.

I don't want to hear about dreams.

I want to hear the truth about where we are and hear about solutions.

Who's talking about this?

Candidates? Nope. Not on either side. Everything the three of them say is very much in the moment. It isn't a 'mortgage crisis'. That's a symptom. Do they think we're morons?

The Congress? Hahahahahahaha! Yeahsureright.

The media? Heh .... more worthless than the Congress.

How much longer do YOU think we can sustain our lifestyle?
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zonmoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:14 PM
Response to Original message
1. 20 to 50 years tops.
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0007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:16 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Maybe less!
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gateley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:17 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. I think you're being a tad optimistic.
It's exponentially growing worse -- FAST.
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zonmoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:52 PM
Response to Reply #3
16. I was trying to think of the best case scenario.
but maybe I am being too optimistic in that way.
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blues90 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-31-08 02:07 PM
Response to Reply #3
65. LOL , that's the funniest response I've heard in a long time
because it's so true
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pinto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:22 PM
Response to Original message
4. I actually remain hopeful that necessity remains the mother of invention.
I think there are undercurrents of innovation, readjustment and rebuilding that don't get big press, yet hold a promise for America and our relationship with world markets and economies.

Will we have to adjust our lifestyles? Most surely, in any scenario. It's doable. And in a sense it's necessary.
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mike_c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:23 PM
Response to Original message
5. there aren't any easy, painless solutions, so politicians avoid the issue...
...like the plague. Don't be looking to leadership that's afraid to even discuss the problems to ever achieve actual solutions.

I've noted here before that I have a job and an income that would have set me for life in my parent's and especially my grandparents' generations, but I live paycheck to paycheck more-or-less like I did 30 years ago and have very little to show for my accomplishments. This is at least partly because my babyboom generation is chasing a bar that rises higher faster than we can chase it-- or more to the point, the economic floor we're standing on is falling faster than we can make progress. My parent's accomplishments-- on much less income, BTW-- are out of my reach. I'm struggling with questions like "will I be homeless when I retire?"

I don't think most folks have a clue how bad it's going to get.
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Indiana_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:26 PM
Response to Original message
6. I think it will be slow for some and faster for others.
I can't really tell. Since I've started paying attention in 2003, it has been excellerating (sp?) more quickly than I want. It's kind of like that saying about someone who "can't see the woods for the trees". Up close in my own life, I can't see a decline, but when I step back and read articles from all over the world here on the internet, learn more about our financial system, learn about resource depletion paired with population increases, it looks like things are happening at a pretty fast clip. I think it will only be something that the survivors will be able to see more clearly in hindsight. I think America will not be immune to the decline...we may even fall harder in some ways only because we're so spoiled and don't realize it. However, we have "a lot of fruit on the tree" and their will be a lot of fruit to be plucked off before we're really hurting. We'll just cry a lot louder than the rest of the world. I hope that makes sense.
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stellanoir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:29 PM
Response to Original message
7. tick. . .tock. . .tick. . .tock. . .tick. . .tock. . .
There was a older local guy, who was the grandfather of some kids for whom I used to babysit years ago.

He had written a book on our over reliance on oil from Arabia in the '30's.

He had gotten roasted by McCarthy in the 50's as a subversive.

Jimmy Carter did all sorts of cool things to encourage alternative fuel sources.

"Saint Ronnie" trashed them and short sightedly ripped the solar panels off the WH.

Now the "Skanda hooligans" (I say that with endearment as I'm 1/4 Swedish) have the BEST technology for alternative energy sources.

The Native Americans had this expression. "If we don't change course, we'll end up where we're headed."

As to the American dream, it was largely a fallacy for all too many working stiffs and underprivileged folks.

Like Barb implied, being corralled into the SuperDome post Katrina was upward mobility. Arghhhhh.

I remember a couple years ago.

Some Canookian (again said with endearment) was chastising us for lamenting losing the American Dream. He/she said, "Make a new and better one."

I would only add, "a more inclusive one."

best to you and Sparkly

:hi:


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DB1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:32 PM
Response to Original message
8. I am busy burying my head in the sand so to speak....
Trying to become self sufficient with greenhouse, cow, chickens,trees and berries and teaching my kids how to live and learn. BUT when you read about ice shelfs melting away, and people not only eating garbage corporate food, and then not even having access to that and starving it gets very depressing. Therefore I am becoming much more active both politically and agriculturally. I think that the ultimate solution to many of our problems can be resolved at a local level. You take away petroleum based economics and everything improves. Petroleum is why the fear and steer political policies of Bushco works.
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Solon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:34 PM
Response to Original message
9. Well, the first thing we would have to do is cut our energy consumption...
across the board by about 75%. This includes electricity, heating, and transportation. That means the Auto industry would literally be a niche market, and any vehicles of that variety will be short range electric vehicles only. We'll have to trade in our suburban homes for flats and apartments in more urban settings, with much better energy efficiency. Transportation will take the form of buses and trains, rather than planes and cars. And that's just the start, and will probably happen within about a decade, decade and a half, tops.
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Stinky The Clown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. The majority of our population lives in exurban areas .....
... so the call to move to cities is almost impossible to achieve. yes, we're reliant on personal transport. But I don't think a vast migration to big cities is gunna do it for us.

Instead, we must learn how to cope with living where we do.

A BIG part of that is new types of work situations ..... like telecommuting. You know ..... it was less than a hundred and fifty years ago when most Americans worked from home. "Going to work" is very much a modern, post Industrial Revolution concept. Since we're no longer industrial, we need to get out of that mindset.
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notesdev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. Seconded
Telecommuting can be a big part of the solution. Just imagine how much money could be saved all around, on fuel, commercial real estate, road maintenance, and so on.
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Stinky The Clown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. Yeah, but bosses are afraid that workers will cheat on their time sheets
If they can't see ya sweat, you're not sweating (they think).
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notesdev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 07:17 PM
Response to Reply #18
26. An economic fallacy
I've seen plenty of people show up for the full 40 hours every week and do absolutely nothing for their pay. I knew one guy who worked for the government, got paid $80k a year plus all the very generous benefits that come with that, answered 1-2 phone calls per week, and played solitaire on his computer for the rest of that time.

Managers who judge people by their attendance and not their performance are simply bad managers. They use attendance as a substitute for having to actually use their own judgment.

Both sets of people ought to get shaken down to the bottom of the economic ladder to make room for people who are busting their butts and doing some good for the world.

These economically unproductive practices are going to get taken out over the next decade or so, as the coming major recession (possibly depression) forces companies to put the bottom line first.

If I were a middle manager type, I'd be desperately looking into acquiring a useful skill right now. Then again, if I were a middle manager type, I'd probably be too oblivious to what was coming to take the proper steps to secure my position.
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Solon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 08:24 PM
Response to Reply #13
36. Its either that or the exurbs are going to turn into slums...
Not every job, hell, not even the majority of jobs in this nation can be done through telecommuting. If we have to "cope" with living in exurbs, then we are going to see those McMansions turn into multi-family units.
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Stinky The Clown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 08:29 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. That's already been predicted and in fact I posted abut it a few weeks ago ....
.... about the McMansions turning into multi unit dwellings.
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Solon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 08:56 PM
Response to Reply #37
43. In a sense, that is already happening...
at least in older suburbs, such as the one I live in, they aren't McMansions, modest homes, about 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, with either finished or unfinished basements, 30+ years old, and many of them are beginning to become multi-family dwellings.
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Solon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 09:02 PM
Response to Reply #37
45. Also, another note...
To be honest, I wasn't even commenting on trade policy, as you have, but sustainability. Simply put the "American way of life" is unsustainable, we consume too much energy to maintain our lifestyles, and that has to change. You would need at least 3 to 5 Earth's worth of resources to sustain it for probably the next century or so, unfortunately, we only have 1.
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 09:57 PM
Response to Reply #36
55. I've heard this argument many times..
but I just can't see it happening on a large scale.

Yes, many mcmansion communities will likely be demolished.

During the depression, cities suffered the most. Criminals prefer high density areas. Big city infrastructure is extremely expensive to maintain and requires enormous amounts of energy.

Basic changes to our way of life will keep exurbs livable. Retrofitting for solar panels and wind, plug-in electric vehicles, telecommuting or more effective carpooling.

It's my opinion that smaller communities will perform better than large cities in the case of an energy crisis.
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Solon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 10:05 PM
Response to Reply #55
57. Its not the size of the community that matters so much as...
population density and zoning. When you have low population densities, in areas with NO commercial enterprises, just houses for miles around, spaced out, with roads between every four of them. That is not sustainable. They take up too much land, to be frank about it, and when you have to travel almost 100 miles a day just for work and going to the grocery store because the exurb you live in is so remote, that is a huge problem that's not going to go away.

Also, you forget that during the Dust Bowl and Great Depression, many smaller towns were literally ruined, and quite a few were practically abandoned.
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marmar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:37 PM
Response to Original message
10. It can't, and it's already unraveling. And in at least one way, that's a good thing....
..... The American lifestyle of conspicuous consumption has harmed the planet, perhaps irretrievably.

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Greyhound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:38 PM
Response to Original message
11. Just as the Amerika today bears little resemblance to America of just
30 years ago, the Amerika of 2015 will probably be unrecognizable to any survivors from today.

The American lifestyle of today is far lower than the lifestyle of the 70s, which was lower than the 60s, which was, in my estimation, the pinnacle of what most think of when talking about "the American lifestyle".

So I guess the answer is that it can't be sustained for any amount of time at all, we are well into the decline and fall period, we just don't want to admit it.
:kick: & R


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notesdev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:38 PM
Response to Original message
12. Three years
Our standard of living is purposely being managed downward to be closer to the global average. That's why the CPI calculations were changed. When we all switch from hamburger to dog food as the best we can afford, the CPI will register that as "no inflation".
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liberal4truth Donating Member (309 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 10:00 PM
Response to Reply #12
56. I agree! Gas will be 5 dollars a gallon by 2010 easily.....
when people cant sell thier three year old SUV it will be plain to everyone that the American dream is over with.
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dysfunctional press Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 10:47 PM
Response to Reply #56
60. more like this christmas. even sooner if we start another war with another mideast country...
that begins with i-r-a.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:44 PM
Response to Original message
14. I can sustain mine for a lot longer
because I do things like heat with wood, spin my own yarn and knit my own sweaters, make my clothes (or did before all the fabric stores turned to quilting and craft crap that's too sleazy for clothing), and cook my own food rather than order in or dine out.

I do all this crap because I've been poor for most of my life.

People who buy cases of bottled water (suckers), live on takeout, and buy everything else on credit are going to have a pretty steep learning curve.
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Liberal Gramma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #14
23. I sew too and agree with you on the quality at fabric stores
quality down, prices up. I've started buying fabric online. The only downside is you have to wait for it to arrive in the mail, maybe a week.
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Ilsa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #14
54. I sew also. And I recycle fabric from sheets, etc, making pillowcases
and nightgowns for myself out of old cotton sheets that are so worn that they have split. But they are soft as down.

I don't know how to knit, but that isn't a necessity for me. And I know how to cook and how to make a dime scream. If only I could convince my husband to be more careful with money.
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eilen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-31-08 07:32 AM
Response to Reply #14
62. I am also a sewist
and wish there were better fabric choices available as well. However, I do go to the thrift stores and refashion clothing. Except for shoes, (I wish I could make those myself, then I'd get what I am looking for), I do not purchase new clothing. I take issue with sweatshop conditions that provide the "Low low prices". It annoys me to no end when people point out to me I could have gotten a "brand new" pair of pants at Macy's during clearance with a coupon for the same amount. When I worked in nursing I did tend to buy pants at Macy's on sale with a coupon (Dockers) for use as uniform pants. Now I make my own if needed--I almost never NEED it because if I can't find a pair at one of the thrift stores (which is practically never) I can run up a pair very quickly from virgin cloth. Many textile mills and sweatshops overseas use child labor and have inexcusable work conditions. I have to qualify that we do purchase new clothing for my husband, he gets all his work clothing from a US union shop. However, I patch it and do repairs and I do sew his welding caps (hard hat liners). Next I will be sewing all his boxers.

I can also knit but haven't needed to lately except to learn technique-- like knitting socks but I have knit hats on my project list to supply dh and ds--they go through them so fast I can't believe everyone in town isn't wearing one of my hats. I prepare our meals too, but recently we have restarted purchasing pizza and wings from a family business in our neighborhood once a week-- I could make my own but we really like them and want them to stay in business. We do have a natural gas furnace but supplement it with a solar collector on the side of our house. We don't use the fireplace too much because the blower has not been working correctly--we've tried to fix it multiple times--it may be time to replace it, as it stands now, it irritates my dh's asthma so I think we definitely will need to shop for another one. Our house is a tract home built in the late 1970's. We do have a pool but I have to admit it is cost effective to keep the central air off and the pool filter cycling. This year I am teaching myself gardening and canning (even if my thumb is brown, I'll be buying bulk at the Farmer's Market to can).

I haven't been poor all my life-intermittently-fortunes come and go but averaged middle class. I enjoy sewing and knitting (also teaching self to crochet). I also want to learn weaving, woodworking and metal work (welding and soldering). A key component of my garden project is an extensive herb garden as I am learning about herbs and their uses. I also like to cook. My dh is an electrician and my brother is a carpenter. My issue of contention is state-corporatism and wish to separate from that dependence. I would Love to have solar panels on my roof but those systems are so expensive, I just can't justify it when there are so many other areas to develop self reliance in that don't cost so much.

My biggest beef about learning these skills and doing them is that they get little appreciation because of the preponderance of cheap goods in the marketplace. I do custom sewing (formal wear alterations and costume) and it is depressing at how little certain people value my skills and their expectation is that my work and time are worth little. There are some brassy people there who think my prices are open to negotiation! I ask them if their boss renegotiates their wages --would they knock their days wages 20% if the boss lets you take personal phone calls during company time? I will give a serious discount when I am approaching something for the first time--a type of garment I've not sewn before and I do some charity/community sewing.

I just want to say I am so thrilled to find some other sewists on the boards!
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-31-08 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #62
63. There's a crafts board here at DU
which I'm ashamed to say I visit only infrequently.

Maybe we should all go rattle a few cages there.
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Juche Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 05:46 PM
Response to Original message
15. Asia will overtake us
I was reading a report today that by 2020 Asia will be a 3rd superpower (with the US and EU being the other two). I'm suprised they aren't already with Korea, China, Japan & India there.

As for innovation, we still spend far more than anyone else. We put 3% GDP into innovation and R&D. The EU puts 2%, and China puts 1%. So in USD we put far far more into innovation than other countries and geographic regoins. So the US should still be the world leader in innovation for 30 years or more, until China starts to catch us or until the EU puts 3% into R&D.

The US middle class is in for big hits over the next few decades as engineers, lawyers, doctors and scientists in Asia can do the same work for 1/4 the income.

However due to economic growth those countries will grow and become less competitive vs. US. if we push China to accept labor & envirnomental standards, the cost of Chinese goods will go up even more and become more competitive with US goods.

Plus as the world gets wealthier, the market for US exports grows.

I'm not an economist, but there should be good and bad to it. We'll still lead the world in innovation, but our middle class will get hollowed out. However, as the world gets richer the market for US exports will continue to grow.

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Stinky The Clown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #15
21. "Plus as the world gets wealthier, the market for US exports grows."
As hinted in my OP ..... besides armaments and trouble, what do we have to export?
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notesdev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 06:40 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. Plenty
Food and technology for starters. America ain't done yet, we were too strong for even this group of morons to finish us off.
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Hannah Bell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 07:47 PM
Response to Reply #24
31. in 2004 the us became a net food importer. n/t
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notesdev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 07:59 PM
Response to Reply #31
35. Not according to the USDA
US food exports are at $81 billion/year, imports at $70 billion/year.

And with the US dollar in free fall, imports are likely to decrease. Exports will depend on how much of the world goes into recession with us.
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Hannah Bell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 09:29 PM
Response to Reply #35
49. You're right, my mistake.
Edited on Sun Mar-30-08 09:32 PM by Hannah Bell
It was a WSJ prediction. I should have known better than to rely on reports w/o checking the actuals. Looks like you're right on the effect of the dollar's drop, too.


http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FATUS/monthlysummary.htm

Fiscal year export v. import

2004:

Out: 62.401
In: 52.656
In as % Out 84%


2005:

Out: 62.516
In: 57.736
In % Out: 92%


2006:

Out: 68.593
In: 64.026
In % Out: 93%

2007:

Out: 81.947
In: 70.037
In % Out: 85%

1/08:

Out: 9.3
In: 6.8
In % Out: 73%

One caveat, though: if US production is moving toward higher-value crops (e.g. almonds) while importing lower-value ones from cheaper-labor countries (e.g. SA), the dollar value can stay pretty constant while the volume/calories changes.

But mea culpa, nevertheless.

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Hannah Bell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 09:37 PM
Response to Reply #49
52. and thanks for correcting my error. n/t
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notesdev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 09:40 PM
Response to Reply #49
53. Crop production
Moving towards corn, away from less profitable crops, due to biofuel subsidies.

Big mistake, IMO, with lots of unintended consequences. Those rapidly rising prices at the grocery are due to the diversion of crops into corn (and thus less of other crops being grown, like wheat), and then burning the corn for ethanol.

Burning food for fuel is not the right way to go about it. If you burn food, prices rise, people who were just making it by slip into starvation. And it doesn't put enough of a dent in overall energy consumption to justify that.

The people who will pay the biggest price for this mistake will be blacks in Africa, as usual.

The greenest source of energy that is available and can be produced in sufficient quantities to make a difference is nuclear power - it's time for the greens to hop aboard that train. Yes, nuclear waste is an issue, but it's a smaller tradeoff than with any other source of power.

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Hannah Bell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 10:37 PM
Response to Reply #53
58. well, i agree with you on the biofuel. i think some local uses
might work, e.g. fuel production on the farm, with waste (farmers actually used to do this) - but gov't subsidies to adm for biofuel, no way. energy inefficient & pernicious subsidy.

even some food crops yield less in calories than they cost to grow by current methods. biofuel should be even worse, unless waste products are used.
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dysfunctional press Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #53
61. algae for biofuel may be the way to go...
it could yield 20,000 gallons or more per acre- and it wouldn't have to use any actual farm or grazing land. algae could be grown in the desert, in closed containers in greenhouses, using seawater. or spread around the country utilizing wastewater sources.
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Juche Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #21
29. Products that require skilled workers
Besides armaments, and trouble, what do we - or better yet, what **can** we - export? I can't see anything substantial.

-------

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html#Econ


Exports:
$1.14 trillion f.o.b. (2007 est.)

Exports - commodities:
agricultural products (soybeans, fruit, corn) 9.2%
industrial supplies (organic chemicals) 26.8%
capital goods (transistors, aircraft, motor vehicle parts, computers, telecommunications equipment) 49.0%
consumer goods (automobiles, medicines) 15.0% (2003)



We have better infrastructure and more R&D spending than every third world country and many 1st world countries. If we use that we can export products made with skilled labor to India, China and other developing areas.

If the US keeps investing in nanotechnology, robotics, biotechnology, engineering and energy we can export these products overseas to growing markets all over Asia.
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brokensymmetry Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 06:08 PM
Response to Original message
19. How long? Try zero.
I want to hear the truth about where we are and hear about solutions.



Really?

We are $9,000,000,000,000 in debt. That's right now, today. We are continuing to spend
on a host of projects, including Iraq. No matter who gets elected, we will remain in
Iraq. We need the oil like an addict needs crack. We will spend blood and treasure to
remain. We would pawn Queen Elizabeth's crown if we could get our paws on it.

We have a demographic tidal wave approaching. Medicare and Social Security will start
withdrawing more than is deposited. That will add to the annual deficit, hence to the
aggregate deficit.

Interest rates are lower than inflation. Low interest rates help consumers and stimulate
the economy; they also weaken the dollar. Foreign creditors see no reason to lend to the
U.S. when they merely lock in a guaranteed loss.

But if we increase interest rates, the annual interest costs on our debt will explode. Thus
we dare not let interest rates increase. But this forces the dollar lower. Which in turn makes
foreign goods (i.e., oil, food, raw materials) more expensive.

Oh, and by the way...we are past peak oil. Oil will get more expensive. And since
diesel and fertilizer is getting more costly, food will continue up. And do you recall that
massive debt? We'll continue to export to a hungry (and more affluent) world. Enjoy your memories
of steak. Expect chicken to become a luxury.

Online work and telecommuting? Fine. But keep in mind that the worker is now engaged in
global labor arbitrage, and is in direct competition with the global labor market. Thus, the
wage levels in the U.S. and other countries must reach equilibrium. Ultimately, the cost structure
will also reach rough parity; in the meantime, the adjustment will drive Americans into the same
financial situation as other workers around the world. I trust that creates an appropriate level
of horror; if not, it should.

Solutions? I suppose that we could simply default on the national debt, along with various
commitments like Social Security and Medicare. We could then spend the next two generations
rebuilding our economic and social infrastructure such that our grandchildren would have a chance.
We, on the other hand, would sweat and strain for meager rewards as we fixed the mess. That
won't happen. It is not viable.

So we'll inflate and inflate, and we'll get poorer both as a society and as individuals. From
time to time, we'll discuss why things went wrong and how to fix them. They went wrong when
we started living large, circa the early 1950's. There is no practical way to fix any of this.

Yeah, I'm a ray of sunshine.

And this is one of my relatively optimistic scenarios.

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Viva_La_Revolution Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 06:08 PM
Response to Original message
20. not any longer for me.
Dead broke.
No job prospects in sight.
Need new housing by May 1.

I'm screwed.
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blues90 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 08:58 PM
Response to Reply #20
44. I really am sorry to hear that .
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Viva_La_Revolution Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 09:03 PM
Response to Reply #44
46. So'kay...
Things have actually been worse, and we got through that. :hug:
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Pharaoh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 06:20 PM
Response to Original message
22. Nice rant Hubs....
K&R
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nichomachus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 07:05 PM
Response to Original message
25. I heard something astounding last night
I thought I knew a lot about the labor movement. I came from a mill town and we had to study labor for a year in high school (those were the days).

Last night, I watched an article on Pete Seeger, who was a labor activist, as well as songwriter/singer. He said that after WW2, when Taft-Hartley was passed, and during the post-WW2 red scare, the workers were told they could have as many unions as they wanted, but they had to get rid of all the "lefties." They did, and in the process, this robbed the labor movement of its best organizers. It also created a power vacuum that was filled by unsavory characters. This is what caused the labor unions to be eaten from within and gave the fascists a lever to use against discrediting them.

It's been downhill from then.
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Hannah Bell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 07:49 PM
Response to Reply #25
32. Yes. The Mafia was used to help take them down. n/t
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NMDemDist2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 07:56 PM
Response to Reply #25
34. wow interesting point
thanks for posting

:hi:
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Hannah Bell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 09:35 PM
Response to Reply #34
51. just my hypothesis. i have no proof, just some interesting
coincidences.
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Orwellian_Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 07:17 PM
Response to Original message
27. Yesterday? Or until g_d wills it?




America is toast. Long overdue.

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Stinky The Clown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 08:32 PM
Response to Reply #27
39. Are you cheering the possible demise of America?
"America is toast. Long overdue."
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varelse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 07:20 PM
Response to Original message
28. Ummm
Has the "American Lifestyle" *ever* been self-sustaining? :shrug:
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superkia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 07:44 PM
Response to Original message
30. The elite along with our corrupted government will run us all into...
poverty for control. We will be their slaves without even knowing it, its coming, it just takes time.
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
33. Doesn't the rest of the planet sustain it now?
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femrap Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 08:31 PM
Response to Original message
38. I went the Ohio State school of
Dentistry to have some fillings done by students...I talked with a couple of them. TOTALLY OBLIVIOUS to what is occurring in our nation. Dumb as dirt. One was a Mormon who already has two children. And the other young woman joined the Army to get her Dentistry Degree paid for...she owes them three years. She is going to get pregnant so she doesn't get sent to Iraq.

When I was in college, our choices were so much more humane and enlightened. We were in gas lines. We knew what our planet faced. I fear it is too late.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 08:33 PM
Response to Original message
40. we've been done for a while now..
When people started taking out equity from homes to buy cars & take vacations...and when people started shopping for food..with credit cards.. we were done..

we just have not all maxxed out those cards yet..

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Zorra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 08:50 PM
Response to Original message
41. Yes, they think we are morons. And, in general, they are correct. Most
American voters derive their opinions from the information they receive from televised news programs.

And therefore, they are morons.

Every Democrat should kill their television on principle, for the good of the country.

But they won't, because the addiction is far too powerful.

It's more powerful than heroin and/or nicotine.
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blues90 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 08:51 PM
Response to Original message
42.  I'll join the people who are not so optimistic , this thing
and i call it a thing because it has grown to engulf and involve everything.

To sustain itself to me would be holding back a bad case of the shits while madly running to the nearest restroom and find the door is locked and an out of order sign that has that well aged look to it .
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Brigid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 09:09 PM
Response to Original message
47. I think it's already stopped sustaining itself.
Edited on Sun Mar-30-08 09:14 PM by Brigid
The housing market meltdown, tight credit, endless war, record budget deficits, the coming Social Security and Medicare crises, tight job market, high energy prices, and a host of other problems are just crushing us. God help is if McBush gets elected this fall. :(
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Rosemary2205 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 09:17 PM
Response to Original message
48. What, EXACTLY is the "American lifestyle"
I can tell you with no ambiguity whatsoever that my lifestyle in no way shape or form resembles that of my own sister.
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hootinholler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 09:31 PM
Response to Original message
50. Well which American Lifestyle do you mean?
Teh McMansion crowd? That one is currently comatose, although there are some who deny it.

The poor? Well, I see that lifestyle on the rise.

-Hoot
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dysfunctional press Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-30-08 10:45 PM
Response to Original message
59. the american lifestyle will continue as long as there is an america...by definition.
the lifestyle itself will change from time to time, depending on a lot of different factors...for instance, our current national "lifestyle" is not sustainable for too much longer, due to global climate change and peak oil- but of even more immediate concern are the same factors that have brought down any number of empire throughout history- being destroyed from within due to a bloated military budget and runaway official corruption on a grand scale.

i'd give it until dec.21, 2012 at the outside.
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ensho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-31-08 11:00 AM
Response to Original message
64. we will do less and less with less and less


health services will do less and less for less and less people

floods and storms are producing many newly poor every day

in the blink of an eye

or on an order from the neo cons

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