Bernake warns of possible recession... and the IMF raises the stakes for a

[nadinbrzezinski]

world wide recession.

I know that by the strict definition we are not there yet... but trust me folks, we are there.

The canaries in the mine have been chirping STRONGLY for the last six months at least and if you go to any retailer these days you will see the signs, clearly.

So the next question is...

Well, is the Pope Catholic?

But, now that we have the big honchos ACTUALLY mentioning the R word in statements, it means things are probably worst than MOST suspect

By the way, we Casandras are far from surprised since we have been singing this song for a while and we just hope to be wrong on how deep this will be

[laconicsax]

1. Canaries in the mine don't warn by chirping. They warn by dying.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Trust me when I say this... the canaries are dying

but they chirp before they die.

Care to tell me where luxury products sales and discretionary spending is these days?

That answers your question

[napoleon_in_rags]

3. You're right, I see it right here in my town.

Nobody can get jobs, that's the critical thing.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. And people still need to eat and put gas in tanks

I know...

It is getting bad.

So discretionary spending, such as games and movies, and vacations are off

Here is a piece of trivia

NPR today gave an interesting piece of data

By this date about fifty percent of folks have planned the summer vacation.

Today only 16% have done such, and vacation spots and cruise lines are sweating bullets right now

[napoleon_in_rags]

21. That's bad news.

Sounds like the fat is burning, and it won't be long until there is no more fat. We've got to think about changing the way we do bizness, especially with logistics and moving things and people around. If I expect one thing that threatens us deeply as a culture its a sudden unexpected boost in gas prices. We need to be prepared.

[LSK]

4. POSSIBLE?!?!?!?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. Well he has the watch... last thing he wants to admit is

this shit is that bad folks... after all honesty ain't their strong suit

[MADem]

15. That was my reaction as well. nt

[Hydra]

5. The canaries died years ago

Assuming we didn't outsource that service as well.

You think them using the "R" word is bad? Wait til they start using the "D" word.

Katrina will look like a picnic at that point. As then, if you don't have the money to survive, you'll be left sitting on your roof.

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. As I said, now that they admit to the R word, we might as well

be staring at the D word

By the way IMF was far more honest

This is the greatest crisis in the US since the Great Depression, which of course was called hogwash by Gub'ment economists as well as Goldman Sach...

I think IMF did not use the word D today because technically it is NOT there yet...

[Hydra]

11. Boiled frog

Think this is bad? The reality they are creating is worse. They're just introducing it in stages.

No problem
Slight chance of slowdown
Slowdown possible
Slowdown Likely
No Recession
Slight chance of recession
Possible Recession
Definite recession

Since all of this was deliberate, you have to think this slowly turning up the heat is, too.

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. There is that too

though there is the possibility that they believe the crap they sell... and that this slowdown actually is counter intuitive, just as Chile's depression of the 1970s was counter intuitive, and in the end Pinochet had to pull back from the free market, chicago boys crap, because it didn't work.

Remember, for these guys this is a religion. and their faith is sorely tested right now

[Hydra]

16. For some of them, it is a religion

But just like there were a few deluded fools that thought that invading Iraq would create a capitalistic paradise...they were considered the excuse makers. The people heavily committed to Iraq and now to this "economic crisis" are fully aware of what happens when you pull available capital from a market- it dies.

From Cheney and Bush's POV, the free market as religion people aren't much different than their fundie supporters- useful tools. They control the markets in a way that the free market people would consider blasphemy.

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. Actually if you read Friedman, the god of Chicago School

what they are doing is EXACTLY what they should do... privatize wealth creation and socialize failures

And it has yet to work as advertised. After all, free trade ain't

[Hydra]

18. I don't think I can stomach Friedman

But how is this not working for them? They get free money, and the little people lose everything they have. Looks pretty good from their side.

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. Look at Chile, in the end they had to use high end repression

and the privatized companies were nationalized once again.

Yep, they are assholes, but the system will implode on its own... and unless they can RUN... they will face more than tar and feathers... and they know it

[Hydra]

20. Remember when this happened before?

The banks shrunk the available currency, and instead of pitchforks and torches, this happened instead:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Reserve_Act

I'm sure other things happened, as I am not well versed in the time period. I do know that when bad things happen, they find a way to profit...or plan how to in advance.

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. Yeah but I am thinking worst than that

can you say French revolution? How about Russian Revolution?

And if you press ANY population enough that is the result

Rarely do you have something like the American Revolution, though the Loyalists lost their shirts and then some

[gateley]

7. You know something, nad?

Regardless of whether we fall within the guidelines of the strict definition of a recession, those of us who have been affected (which is everyone who has filled up their gas tank or bought groceries for their families) KNOW we're already THERE. If not beyond. Which supports your statement that if they're now acknowledging the POSSIBILITY of it, we're in the throes.

I don't think the world has been in this situation before -- it's a whole different world than it was during previous recessions. I doubt if any of us understands how deeply or far-reaching this is.

I've been ringing this bell for a while, too, and actually wondered if I was over-the-top. Not anymore.

:hug:

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. I know,

but this is also the ideal situation for ahem Disaster Capitalism and with the IMF getting to play a role by actually speaking (and given it is infested with Chicago School) this will get BAD

[durablend]

12. Not to worry...

They'll shut Bernanke up just look enough to make sure Bush's ass keeps smelling like a rose and whoever unfortunate enough to end up in the WH taking the rap for the entire mess.

Expect the media to ratchet up the "Bush tax rebates will REVIVE the economy" meme in the coming weeks. We all know it's bullshit but they're going to go all out in promoting it as the country's savior.

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. They did that in 2002 and it didn't work

of course I worry that this rebate is truly an advance on NEXT YEAR's Taxes.

So me, not spending this... but putting in a savings account to pay my taxes with next year.