http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/10848So, we're almost five years from the day Baghdad fell, and it's time to ask: Who is in control of Iraq?
It's a question we've been asking for five years. And while in the pundit and political belts, the answers have varied (and the real answer is probably no one), the single person who comes closest is, perhaps, the one the US will least want to hear: Muqtada al Sadr.
Or, as a friend of mine calls him, Mookie.
The US would like the answer to be Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki. And he clearly set out to prove that he was in charge last week when he went with the Iraqi Army into the southern Shi'ite stronghold of Basra. But the fighting, which was intense for days, ended not with an Iraqi military victory, but with Mookie calling for his backers, the Mahdi Army militia soldiers (really, often just poor guys with weapons) to leave the streets. After that, Maliki, who was in Basra to supervise the attack, watched his troops march through nearly empty streets.
And, in summing up the effort by the Iraqi Army, U.S. General Kevin Bergner said "there is still much more work to do in developing and strengthening the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces ... Overall, the majority of the Iraqi security forces performed their mission. Some were not up to the task and the government of Iraq is taking the necessary action in those cases."
Hardly a ringing endorsement.
But now, on the heals of what many see as an embarassment to Maliki, Mookie is calling for million folks to converge on Najaf April 9, to protest the five year anniversary of the US invasion of Baghdad (just north).
U.S. officials would note it's also the five year anniversary (okay, a day short) of when he established himself as a force to be feared in Najaf, ordering the assassination of Imam Abdul Majid al Khoei (a judge issued a warrant for him in the murder, it was not delivered, and was probably never possible to deliver).
So every time since 2003 that he's gained another foothold in Iraq, it's been a slap in the face to U.S. influence, and a sign that U.S. backers in Iraq are not in total control of the country, despite what the purple fingers might imply.
In fact, the estimate in Iraq is that Sadr has as many as 3 million Shi'ite followers. Many are dedicated to the memory of his father, Mohammed Sidiq al Sadr, who was murdered (martyred to many Shi'ites) by Saddam Hussein henchmen. And he gets additional respect from the fact that his cousin is also a very popular Imam.
Beyond that, last summer, when he called for a six month cease fire, the level of violence in Iraq noticeably dropped, at least raising questions about whether this was coinciding with the success of the American surge, or a primary cause of that success.
In any case, the level of Sadr's influence will be tested again next week. And if there are a million men (or more) marching on Najaf, carrying his photos, waving his banners, chanting his name, to protest the U.S. occupying oppressors (as they call the U.S. force in Iraq), the answer to who exactly is in charge of Iraq might be very clear.
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