Depressing Peak Oil article...

[ruiner4u]

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/viewpoints/articles/0406vip-mcpherson0406.html

Guy R. McPherson
University of Arizona professor
Apr. 6, 2008 12:00 AM

Peak oil spells the end of civilization. And, if it's not already too late, perhaps it will prevent the extinction of our species.

M. King Hubbert, a petroleum geologist employed by Shell Oil Co., described peak oil in 1956. Production of crude oil, like the production of many non-renewable resources, follows a bell-shaped curve. The top of the curve is termed "peak oil," or "Hubbert's peak," and it represents the halfway point for production.

......

For individuals interested in making other arrangements, it's time to start acquiring myriad requisite skills. It is far too late to save civilization for 300 million Americans, much less the rest of the planet's citizens, but we can take joy in a purpose-filled, intimate life.








JoY :sarcasm:

[UndertheOcean]

1. Our Generation is so fucked

[lostnotforgotten]

2. The Oil Drum Dot Com

www.theoildrum.com

[elocs]

3. If you want to immerse yourself in hopelessness,

just spend some time at www.PeakOil.com and you will be thoroughly depressed. You will never have enough food, water, guns and bullets to survive.

[callous taoboy]

14. The oil drum site is equally gloomy. n/t

[lostnotforgotten]

16. As Rightly It Should Be - This Is A Wake Up Call!

eom

[TheWraith]

20. It's paranoia, and Y2K for the next round.

There's some people who are never happy unless they're facing the end of civilization as we know it. Peak Oil is their Prozac.

[lostnotforgotten]

21. Your Opinion Only As The Facts Do Not Support This Viewpoint

eom

[Richard Steele]

22. You are just as full of shit as ever.

nm

[Double T]

4. So why the HELL are ALL of YOU still driving your gas guzzling SUVs??

Few are serious about DOING SOMETHING about THIS and some don't even care.

[Speck Tater]

5. The human mind and body evolved to operate as

a hunter/gatherer in a small tribal group. Anything more complex than that is just too taxing on our poor mental faculties, and we screw it all up.

The good news is that those of our descendants that survive will again be living in the hunter/gatherer world they are best adapted to, and balance will again return to nature.

[Arctic Dave]

6. It never fails. I was reading the post for this article

and sure enough there is always that one guy that says if the liberals would just let the oil companies drill more in Alaska all our problems would be solved. Well, I happen to work in the oilfields in Alaska and if this guy would tell us were all this oil is, we would be glad to pump it.:eyes:

[SteinbachMB]

7. It's all over

...resistance is futile. I think I'll go out and filler up, one more time.

[benEzra]

8. I think the alarmism is overstated and overly pessimistic.

The same dire predictions could have been made about Peak Coal, Peak Charcoal, Peak Wood, and going far enough back, Peak Flint.

We have wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear, plus natural gas, synfuels, and biofuels in the near term.

Case in point, France gets over 70% of their electricity from nuclear, plus some hydro and renewables. Were oil production to cease tomorrow, they could use non-fossil-fuel generated electricity to produce hydrogen for fuel. They wouldn't just revert back to the Stone Age.

Shifting away from an oil based economy won't be painless, but it is not the end of civilization. Look at it as growing pains, not a death rattle.

[ThomWV]

9. You beat me to the punch. Thank you for your non-hysterical reply

These "Peak Oil" alamrists drive me nuts. The end of the oil age won't be much different than the end of the age of the horse. There are plenty of horses around to this day, they are simply no longer important for performing work. The same will happen to oil as an energy source, it will simply be replaced as more efficient and economical energy sources supplant it and as our use of energy becomes more rational.

[lostnotforgotten]

11. You Miss The Point Entirely - This Is Not A General Energy Crisis

This is a specialized transport fuels crisis.

There is no combination of "wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear, plus natural gas, synfuels, and biofuels" that can support our "easy motoring lifestyle" as we presently know it.

Hence we have a looming problem on our hands.

I would humbly suggest that you spend some time educating yourself on the topic.

Forewarned is forearmed as is said.

[benEzra]

18. Yes, there is.

Given good sources of electrical power (nuclear, wind, solar, hydro), plug-in hybrids running on synfuels, biofuels, or much smaller amounts of petrofuels would still work. In the long run, given electricity, you can synthesize transportation fuels from water (e.g., hydrogen), though other fuels may end up being more practical for that purpose. For air transport, you can either use biofuels, reserve petroleum-derived fuels for aviation by using hydrogen elsewhere, or use hydrogen.

I didn't say the transition would be painless, or cheap. But it is not the end of civilization as we know it.

The fact that one does not subscribe to apocalyptic scenarios does not mean one has never looked at the issue; it can simply mean that one believes the apocalyptic view is overly pessimistic.

Now, IF we manage, through short-sighted policy blunders, to kill off wind power (NIMBY, "don't spoil my million-dollar view with your windmills on my horizon"), nuclear, biofuels (by shortsighted emphasis on biofuels made from food crops), etc., and thereby cut our electrical supply just as we need it most, we will be in for a very rough time economically. But nations like France with an electrical infrastructure that is already majority non-fossil-fuel based will do pretty well.

[lostnotforgotten]

19. Go Back And Check Your Facts - All These Are True, Just Not Enough

In other words everything mentioned will not scale sufficiently to replace the level of activity we now see for transportation today.

Sad to say that many dreamers would like it otherwise, but it just is not so.

[callous taoboy]

13. You may be right, but have you read any of James Kunstler's writings?

He argues that it is because nobody seems to be gearing up for this transition that it is going to hit us hard and fast. He also argues that we will need vast amounts of (petroleum) energy to build and maintain all of the infrastructure that alternatives would call for. In other words he is arguing that there is no way we will be able to use alternative energy to make a transition that would allow us to keep running the world as we now know it.

[lostnotforgotten]

15. Yes! As Kunstler States It The Easy Motoring Lifestyle Will End

Because there is no combination of Oil substitutes in sufficient quantities or that contain sufficient energy per lb to run things as we have so far.

What will change:

- The 3,000 mile Ceaser Salad will end (trucks delivering lettuce from the West Coast to the East Coast)
- Large scale suburbia (we will return to our urban roots)
- We will be forced to live more locally
- Many people will eventually be employed on farms to locally grow food
- Air Transport will become too expensive for most
- Trains will see a resurgence for long-haul travel
- People will vacation locally instead of globally
- High-tech sailing ships will populate the seas for lack of bunker fuel (low grade oil)
- and on, and on

Learn More Here:

www.kunstler.com/
www.theoildrum.com
www.energybulletin.net/primer.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M._King_Hubbert

[depakid]

17. It's easy (and perhaps comforting) to be in denial

It takes courage to recognize the gravity of the situation, and understand that there's no substitute for cheap petroleum and natural gas.

The reason for this boils down to 3 basic FACTS about petrol.

1. It has a remarkable energy density;

2. Conventional sources have a high return on energy invested to retrieve and process it; and

3. It's readily transportable.

No other energy source has these qualities except petroleum (and to a lesser extent, natural gas).

And the US macroeconomy in particular is utterly dependent on them. Everything from foodstuffs to pharmaceuticals (not to mention other energy sources and projects) require cheap petroleum and natural gas inputs.

The US economy (like any system) cannot expand or meet its growing debts and obligations without increasing energy supplies- anyone who believes otherwise is engaged in magical thinking, and would do well to revisit the laws thermodynamics

What we'll see is that as prices inexorably rise, certain businesses and activities will become uneconomic. Those with the slender margins who are the most petroleum dependent (think: trucking) will be the first to feel the effects of declining oil supplies, but as with any complex, interdependent system, the perturbations will resonate throughout.

The real questions are where are the tipping points? and what cascading effects will take place.

As with any widespread change- or paradigm shift, there will be winners and losers. Some people and groups of people- perhaps governments will have the foresight to plan and adapt to the changing conditions.

Others won't be able to overcome the psychology of prior investment, and will cling to outmoded ways of thinking and behaving. Until they no longer can....

[Supersedeas]

10. Water may be the next oil.

[callous taoboy]

12. My wealthy brother is searching for farm land as I type.

He is so sure that we have very little time to get ready.