German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

[Mugu]

AFP via Yahoo

BERLIN (AFP) - A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.

Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029. Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.

Complete article

[knitter4democracy]

1. That's awesome!

Get that boy into a good college! We need him studying math and physics and all sorts of things. :)

[EOTE]

2. Seriously. I hope he's got a free ride to a great school.

It's amazing how active some of these young minds are. He needs as many outlets as possible to exercize it.

[Squatch]

8. He lives in Germany...

school *is* free there.

[leftofcool]

3. and frightening as well

[Hugabear]

6. We've always known it was only a matter of time before we got hit again

The Earth is basically a moving target in a huge solar shooting gallery. It's not a matter of "if" we'll get smacked by a major asteroid or comet, but rather a matter of "when".

[leftofcool]

7. Tis true!

[gilpo]

4. Awesome???? 1 in 450 not so awesome

Gives the fundies something to cheer for, though.

[knitter4democracy]

12. Awesome that a young kid did the math and got it right.

I'm not so worried about the asteroid, given that I can't do anything about it. I have enough to worry about, so this one's far down on the list. :)

[Hugabear]

5. Seems like that would be pretty big news

And you'd think the headline would focus more on the increased chances of a major asteroid hit.

[nebenaube]

10. ha he exposed them...

who says they didn't skew the numbers for social engineering purposes...

[Extend a Hand]

9. This article says the NASA figures are correct

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/

There's only one problem with the story: the kid's sums are in fact wrong, NASA's are right, and the ESA swear blind they never said any different. An ESA spokesman in Germany told the Reg this morning: "A small boy did do these calculations, but he made a mistake... NASA's figures are correct."

It would appear that the intial article in the Potsdamer Neueste Nachrichten, which says that NASA and the ESA endorsed Nico Marquardt's calculations, was incorrect. The story was picked up by German tabloids and the AFP news wire, and is now all over the internet.

[knitter4democracy]

13. Well, I still think he's a cool kid.

I hope a good prof grabs onto him and mentors him through grad school.

[Extend a Hand]

15. oh yes!

I do too

[chelsea0011]

11. Hmmmmm. Is this why the Mars program is on overdrive?

[JackRiddler]

14. Bullshit for the tabloids - obviously so.

Comment from slashdot:

http://science.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=523902&cid=23086332

Let's see. We begin with the original source of data, "telescopic observations." Good, but perhaps a bit, shall we say, lacking in nine-digit precision. Then we add the element of a bright schoolboy (always a favorite in the papers) doing something big and being validated (instantly!) by "NASA" (not a person, but apparently the entire agency). Oh, and "NASA" told "ESA", but we still don't have the identity of anyone other than the putative schoolboy.

So far, doing well.

Then we hit the big problems. First, we have the scare factor of "40,000" satellites surrounding Earth. Most of which, actually, are in LEO, with a few more in geosynchronous orbit. Which makes the space around the Earth only about 99.999% empty space, rather than a few more nines. As it turns out, space is big. But it sounds good to imply that somehow there's this asteroid belt around the earth, and that the "killer" asteroid might hit a satellite.

Well, WHICH ONE? They have a lot of different masses, they are going in different directions, and we pretty much have to get a specific momentum change in the right direction in order to get just the right perturbation. Hitting a small piece of space junk is one thing, but the variation in weight of those "40,000" satellites is orders of magnitude. And that makes a big difference in orbital perturbation, even if the difference in orbital velocity is small compared to the velocity of the asteroid. We're talking about a subtle effect here.

And let's not figure in things like elastic collisions, off-center collisions, pieces flying off, or anything else. Nope, it's gonna happen perfectly, just like that seven-ball four-cushion bank shot we all can hit again and again. Heck, they even called the pocket. Right into the Atlantic, after an orbit measuring in the decades. Now I will grant that the orbit is pretty well known, but again, that little "satellite assist" must be just precise as heck.

A nice touch gives us the "destroy both coasts and darken the world indefinitely." While it's good to be so certain, couldn't they be more specific about the method of destruction? Seeing as how they apparently know everything else, and all.

And finally, we have the 450:1 odds. Not 500:1, and certainly not 1000:1, but exactly 450. Cool. About as believable as my old homework excuses, but infinitely cooler. Can you say "significant figures"? I knew you could.

(...)

[tjwash]

16. The yahoo article is dead now, but the truly hilarious thing about it...

...was this entry: The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."

Not to mention, that if NASA was wrong, they would have updated their risk website.

[slowry]

17. Just in case anyone was worrying about this still: NASA's press release on this...

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/apr/HQ_08103_student_asteroid_calculations.html