Crossover Republicans

[ThomWV]

In the 2000 election 50,456,169 votes were counted for Bush and 50,995,116 votes were counted for Gore; 50/50 split. Half of the 102 million voters in this country voted Republican.

In the 2004 election 62,040,610 voters were counted for Bush and 59,028,111 were counted for Kerry; 48/52 split. In that year we still had about half of the 121 million people who voted going for the Republican.

If George Bush were to run for President in 2008 the polls tell us that about 30% would still vote for Bush. That tells us that about 20% of some number of potential voters, lets say that number will grow again so that there are 130 million of them, will cross over from their previous voting pattern and either vote for the Democrat or may not vote at all. That's about 26 million crossovers. They are still Republicans at heart but they have been angered by George Bush; pissed off Republicans (PORs) you might want to call them.

Some days I think most of them, the PORs, have landed here.

[Historic NY]

1. Most are part of "Operation Chaos".

[johnlal]

2. There's some sophisticated calculus in the numbers...

...that I don't understand. Here's the way I perceive it:

The Republicans can usually count on at least 30%. There are fluctuations in favorability and popularity, but when push comes to shove, you can depend on a base of at least 30% to be there, no matter what. Even if there's illegal war, torture, illegal wiretapping, or widespread corruption.

When it's crunchtime, they try to expand their 30% by going after sympathetic voters. Then they go to issues like abortion or gay marriage.

But their final ace-in-the-whole is sliming the democrats. This tactic can make all of the difference in changing 49% to 51%. And a lot of it involved a wierd system of mannerisms and syntax. They are careful to make specific faces or gestures when they sneer the words: "Pelosi", "San Francisco", "Hillary", "Hollywierd", or any of about 100 key words and phrases.

I don't know what the strategy should be. Should we invest time and effort in destroying the base 30%, or should we hop around, putting out fires among the top 5% of their potential support?

[KharmaTrain]

3. Very Silent But Very Real

Yep...I've met plenty of "PORs" in canvassing in various areas. Many fell off the wagon over the economy, Iraq and the corruption, but aren't fully sold on the Democrats as the answer. We've seen a bunch of them peel off into the Paulbots...and others have crossed over on lower ticket races (Congress), but still aren't sure where they'll be this November.

The "math" here to think about is not the gains to the Democrats as it will be the loss to the GOOP. There won't be as many church busses filled up for Gramps and you could see a good number of "PORs" stay home this year...but those numbers could mean a difference of 5 to 10 percent...and higher in some critical states.

The Democrats have picked up what I like to call the "bandwagon" vote...another 10% or so that goes with the party that appears to be the strongest...which is now the Democrats. They're the ones who wanted to have a "beer" with boooshie and now like the "change" of Obama. This vote...the "swing" voters continue to favor the Democrats as the GOOP messes get worse and the corporate media can't spin them away.

A lot of people are keeping their cards close to the vest regarding this election...depending on how worse things get.

The one thing you also need to include are many first time and new voters...at least in the primaries. Many of the new voters were either 18-30 year olds or those with no affiliation (apathy reigned supreme during the early boooosh years)...these people will opt into the system as Democrats while an equal number could opt out on the GOOP side.

Cheers...