Corn and Ethanol

[erpowers]

Is corn based Ethanol really causing the food crisis? It seems to me that high oil prices, which lead to high gas prices and the need to transport some foods is what is actually causing the food crises. I read an article in today's Washington Post about the food crisis and from the story it seems that at least on issue is paying the price for transportation of food. In addition, some of the corn used to make Ethanol would either be exported or would not be consumed by people. Is is possible that some people are just using the food crisis to criticize Ethanol?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/29/AR2008042903092.html?hpid%3Dtopnews&sub=AR

[KharmaTrain]

1. Yes And Yes...

The food crisis is a byproduct of a falling dollar...fueled by years of big defecits...that have driven up the price of oil and with it both the cost of producing and distributing food. We're seeing doubling of prices in many third world countries that has driven up the price of commodities. Many farms now are corporate owned...they work on and for profit and are getting more per bushel for ethanol production than for sending it to market. Add this to the additional costs the rises in the price of oil have made in the production and it's a spiral that will get worse as there's no one out there who cares other than to find a way to profit.

Right now many fields are being planted at $4 a gallon fuel and will cost even more as the year goes along...and someone has to pay for it. The high price of oil is making it more profitable to sell that corn into fuel production (no matter how ineffective it is) and will stay that way as long as the reliance on both oil and ethanol remain as they do.

[dipsydoodle]

3. Reminds me of what a happened in Brazil

back in the seventies. They knew they could run cars using their sugar crops to make fuel and thousands of VW Beetles etc were converted to use of the alternative fuel. Then the price of oil fell again and the cars were ultimately dumped.

[dipsydoodle]

2. It's not necessarily the root cause

but its contributing it. I think that particular article is a fair assessment of the situation.

There are other issues too :

But others fear the impact of biofuels on food prices. And recent articles from US scientists argue that the carbon debt incurred from carbon released from ploughing virgin soil often outweighed any potential carbon saving from the biofuels.

Professor Watson said some of the calculations on soil science were controversial - but agreed that carbon losses from soil were a serious concern.

>

This is certainly true compared with the US which has set numerical targets for biofuels without consideration of their carbon impact.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7309099.stm

and here :

The charity Oxfam is warning that the European Union's plan to increase the use of biofuels could have a negative impact on some of the world's poorest people.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/caribbean/news/story/2007/11/071101_oxfambiofuels.shtml

[KharmaTrain]

5. Ethanol Was Never Supposed To Be A Replacement

It was only supposed to be an additive...stretching the oil rather than replacing it. Or at least that was the intentions back in the 70s when the first projects got underway. It was supposed to be a stop-gap until some other more environmentally friendly and effective fuel could be developed...liquid hydrogen or fuel cells or methane. It also was intended as a means for corn farmers to find an alternative to selling for feed (which is what most corn that was used for ethanol was going to) that sold for the lowest price.

This food crisis is a Catch 22...and a very deadly one. Bio-fuels have now become profitable and that supercedes all.

Cheers...and thank you for the informative links.

[randr]

4. Ethanol production is the proud baby of the ag/chem industry

The pressure on farmers to place land in corn produced mainly for ethanol has changed the rural landscape. The price of land suitable for ethanol production has driven many farmers out of business. Where ethanol production plants are located the situation is critical. The demand by the ethanol industry has put tremendous pressure on the supply of needed fertilizer and seed.
Most of all it has been a boon for the Ag/Chem industry as they are able to reap the profits from mutant seed, fertilizers, and the final ethanol product.
In the end the market place for world food production and associated infrastructures has a new demand not related to the needs of people for basic food supplies. The term "food chain" comes to mind. We need to understand a new link has been added, diverting energy in opposing directions, and threatening to break the most needed of human enterprises.
There is a world of information I do not have the time to locate and post with this reply. I would recommend starting with a look at how the Palm Oil industry that has devastated the South Asian food chain.

[melm00se]

6. The run up in food prices

does not have a single root cause, it is a series of individual issues that add up to the problem:

1) the weakened dollar - this makes US exports more attractive to overseas buyers than in the past.

2) transportation costs - gas/oil driven transportation costs are up which also has a trickle up affect.

3) Corn to ethanol - most people are not aware of exactly how much corn is produced in the USA: ~12 billion bushels or ~364 million tons or, IOW enough corn to provide the caloric needs, according the UN, of 1.3 billion children. Now of that, approximately 25% is being diverted to the manufacture of ethanol - that is a shit pot of corn that is effectively removed from the available inventory. In addition, with the federal subsidies to the ethanol industry, they have the ability to pay more than market rates for corn (it's easy to spend when it's not your money) which also tightens supply and drives up costs.

4) Rice - due to several reasons, export available rice inventories are down which increase pressures on other food sources: potatoes, wheat, corn, etc driving up those prices.

5) Increased worldwide consumption of meat - one of the side effects growing and thriving economies (and middle class) is a shift in diet from low cost food stuffs to a diet of an increasing amount of meat. Corn is one of the main sources of livestock feed, feed costs go up so do prices.

6) Growing populations - with the percentage population growth in both China and India, they add 8 million mouths in China and 17 million mouths in India every year (it's like adding the population of both Illinois and Pennsylvania, every year). that's a lot of mouths to feed.

7) US agrarian policies - the US government pays farmers to keep 35 million acres lying fallow. Just bringing 15% of that farmland on line could bring about an increase of 900 million bushels of corn or an 8% increase

Now, as to opposition to ethanol as a fuel source: assuming that 100% of the ethanol production (86 million gallons based upon the amount of corn diverted into the ethanol industry) poured into gasoline at 10% mixture stretches US gas stocks by 2.4 days. In the short/medium term increasing the amount of ethanol to stretch gas stocks even further would increase the amount of corn diverted into ethanol production pressuring corn inventories even further. (Yes, I am aware that there are other raw material options for ethanol production but none of them, currently, even come close to the amount of corn production in the US, that may change over time but it takes just that, time, to switch over).