40% will vote Republican. 40% will vote Democrat. What and which candidate would appeal

[colonel odis]

to that 20% who determines the presidency?

Thoughts?

[havocmom]

1. Lots of life-long conservatives (real, old fashioned conservatives, not neo-cons) where I live...

will cross over to Obama come November. I reckon lots of Independents will too.

HRC? hell, one of her fat cat supporters is threatening the Speaker of the House to change rules she has no authority over. NOT a good way to make friends and influence people, so it seems safe to figure HRC campaign is not interested in making friends or influencing people; they now use threats and bullying.

Fuck that shit. We have had too many years of doing that to the People's Representatives by executive branch overstepping their legal bounds. We don't need more of the same.

[Warpy]

3. You can't ASSume 40% will vote GOP

For one thing, the party membership has declined to around 25% of the population. For another, people are disgusted with the direction that party has taken this country. They want change and they want it now.

Even diehard GOPs can't be counted on to vote GOP. The Evangelicals are feeling used and betrayed and the money boys know the party has totally fouled up the economy. Most of them will never vote for a Democrat, but they can be counted upon to sit this election out.

You're making the classic DLC mistake, that of trying to appeal to the fence sitters and soft conservatives instead of to the Democratic party base. The "where else can they go?" theory of electioneering has fallen completely flat during the last 2 presidential elections as the party base has felt increasingly alienated and has stayed home.

That GOP crossover vote is a myth. You win elections by appealing to your own party's base, something the GOP has done very well at up to now. Only because their core philosophy is so flawed are they in a position to lose this election. Only because they have so thoroughly screwed up everything they have touched will their base sit this one out.

[colonel odis]

4. wow. a mindreader.

[havocmom]

6. meh, not so much. Missed by a long shot, but did make ASSumptions

I was giving anecdotal accounts of people where I live and somehow got accused of making assumptions about all else AND not thinking it best to appeal to the DEM base.

ANYBODY who ever read my post would score me as the old time DEM populist I am, unless they let their own assumptions blind them to what I have said over the years ;)

Actually am surprised at the poster who made assumptions and borderline accusations about what I said. Not usually that poster's MO, so I will just suggest she is WRONG and having a bad day.

[colonel odis]

8. i meant warpy's ability to read your mind and know that you're taking the dlc's position, etc.

[havocmom]

9. Yep, I know. Was trying to let Warpy off the hook for getting it so wrong

;)

[Mike Daniels]

5. You can guarantee that whoever still thinks Bush is doing a good job will go Republican

So that's about 30% in the bag for McCain right now.

The reason...anyone who still supports Bush is going to be motivated to see Bush get some sort of credit if things ever turn around in Iraq over the next 10 years of so.

The only way to guarantee that Bush's policies stay in effect is to make sure a Republican wins the presidency. Consequently, people aren't going to sit out voting on McCain if it means leaving Bush's future "legacy" or "validation" at risk.

Baring McCain "doing" a live donkey at one of the debates he'll pull a guaranteed $35% minimum. Even if he does the donkey he'll still pull about 30% under the guise that it was a just a physical demonstration of "sticking it to the Democratic party".

[Kitsune]

2. 20% will vote Rep, 20% will vote dem, 10% will be a tossup.

The other 50% generally says "fuck it" and stays home.

Which candidate would appeal to that 50%? :P

[Richard Steele]

7. One thought occurs: