Michigan and New Jersey: Are these states "in play" for the other side?

[Carrieyazel]

I notice that McCain has been campaigning in MI and NJ this week. A couple of polls have put him in a tie with Obama in these two states.

I thought these two states are basically safe for us in the general. Any chance that McCain can take one or both in the general?

[Anarchy in Detroit]

1. Michigan is full of "Confedeyankees" allow me to explain...

Michigan is quite republican. In fact, outside of Southeast Michigan with all the blacks and factory guys (like muh self) this state is knee deep in dipshits. Leave southeast Michigan and you're in weirdo religous nut land. The right wing militia guys are big out in the backwoods along with the bombs and jesus crowd and the west side of the state is home to the guys who run black water. (they're calvinists too, look that up.)

[N4457S]

4. I Could See...

...Michigan being tough for Obama, but New Jersey?

That's hard to believe.

[N4457S]

15. Saw This Today...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2a50425a-1f86-11dd-9216-000077b07658,s01=1.html?nclick_check=1

This isn't gonna happen.

We needed Gore.

[knitter4democracy]

7. We're not all crazy right wingers out here.

Remember, Kerry won two counties in the Detroit area, Ingham county, and Kalamazoo county. Kalamazoo's in SW lower MI, and we worked damn hard for that win.

I do think it's going to be hard to beat McCain here, but from the latest reports, his campaign here's practically imploding (lost Cox as state campaign manager, gave a speech in Detroit on anything but the economy, and is skipping the Mackinac conference for a fundraiser in Grand Rapids--all of which would make great ads and campaign fodder).

[David Dunham]

2. NJ will go for BHO. MI's unemployment rate means ultimately it goes for BHO

[knitter4democracy]

8. That's not definite.

A lot of people here like McCain's "straight talk," since they're tired of political BS. We're going to have to work twice as hard to overcome the primary debacle, too. Why vote for a guy who decided to throw us under the bus to try to win Iowa and New Hampshire? I know that's not how it really was, but that's how most people here are seeing it.

[grantcart]

3. They are two states that Obama hasn't really campaigned at all

i expect that they will both go Obama in the fall

[depakid]

5. New Jersey would require over a 6 point swing from 2004 to go to McCain

Less than the over 9 points that it would take for Virginia to go Democratic in the presidential race.

Pretty unlikely that either one of those is going to happen.

[KharmaTrain]

6. The GOOP Thought Jersey Was In Play in '04, Too...It Wasn't

The pollsters, pundits and corporate media have been clueless this year in understanding what is bringing people to the polls and what will bring them back in November. Gramps is not only a weak candidate, but one who has pissed off a good deal of his base. Those who are "supporting" him are nowhere near what we've seen in the past and the "base" has imploded. To win, Gramps needs the same number of votes asshat won in 2004...about 51 million...he'll be lucky to draw over 45 million. Not that all these votes will go to Democrats as much as it'll be independents and others who will stay home. The primaries already show a massive increase for Democrats and stagnation for the GOOP...with 25% of them not even sold on voting for Gramps in their own primary.

I see Obama winning both Michigan and New Jersey...as well as Colorado, Iowa and Nevada (states won by the GOOP in 2004). The key here isn't what's on the top of the ticket, but the many exciting down ticket races that will draw people to the polls. The Democrats have lined up some quality candidates for the House that should help bring many new voters to the polls.

All the metrics and funadmentals show this year being a disaster for the GOOP...my goal is to not only help it all, but dance and then piss all over their grave.

[Carrieyazel]

9. Obama will have a tough time in Nevada. Recent polls showed him behind

McCain by a significant margin there. Nevada doesn't really have kind of demos.

[annabanana]

12. Remember when Rove goofed on NJ?

[KharmaTrain]

14. Yep..."The Math"...LOL

Too bad that's not a picture of a bus the Rovemeister is being thrown under. :rofl:

Cheers...

[Alexander]

10. Remember in 2000 when the GOP thought California was up for grabs?

Didn't happen.

Remember in 2004 when New Jersey was in play?

Didn't happen.

Once Obama starts campaigning there his numbers will go up - same with every place he goes to.

[Useful Idiot]

11. Remember in 2000 when the GOP thought California was up for grabs? Didn't happen.

Its happening now! Who cares about NJ and Mich (NJ is most definitely in play this year btw) The big crisis the Dem's should be very worried about is that California is in play THIS YEAR if BHO is the nominee.

[N4457S]

16. Sure...

...except for Ohio and Pennsylvania.

[psychmommy]

13. nobody asked me.

in north jersey there are some heavily monied repub's and they drop big bucks. mccain is coming for the cash. nj is safe i think.