Wow! MS-01 had a 33 point swing from the '04 election

[KelleyKramer]

Seeing all these threads about the Repubs being scared about the loss in MS01 that I started pondering how red a district it is (or WAS).

In 2004 the voters in that district went for Bush 62% - 37% ... a 25 point landslide.

On tuesday, the voters in that district went for the Democrat 54% - 46%... an 8 point victory.

Thats a 33 point swing in less than 4 years. Amazing!

And that last result wasnt from a lack of trying on the Repubs part, they brought in every heavy hitter GOPer in the state to campaign, they even got a visit by Darth Vader himself, and all told they poured over $2 million in campaign cash into it.

Even with all that .... a full one third of the entire electorate went from the Repubs to the Dems.

That is just an incredible shift in voting...

I think people are finally waking up!

[RB TexLa]

1. What was the swing from the house race in that year?

in 2004 the presidential election in Mississippi was not a closely contested race. And there is a difference in voting in house races and presidential races.

Louisiana in '88 the 8th district went something like 52% for Dukakis and 54% or so for Clyde Holloway. I'm not certain of the exact numbers but they are close to that, regardless Dukakis won and Holloway a conservative Republican won from the same people.

[KelleyKramer]

2. Well its safe to say ...

after 4 years of Bush, anyone who would still vote for him would vote for pretty much anybody with a R next to their name.

For the 04 congress race there was a ten year incumbent Repub running, so for comparing party leanings, this open seat race is a lot closer when comparing it to Bush in 04 for the same voters.

Its not exact, but a 33% point swing is a huge factor by any measure.