My Prediction On The 2008 Electoral Result

[Tony_FLADEM]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/?dList=ca,co,ct,de,il,nj,ny,nc,ore,ri,la,wa,me1,me2,me0,md,va,wi,hi,ma,mn,vt,ind,nm,dc&rList=ia,nh,nv,sc,fl,al,ak,ar,wy,ga,mo,ok,pa,tn,ut,mi,az,nd,oh,tx,ms,ne0,ne1,ne2,ne3,wv,ky,id,mt,sd,ks&uList=

[napi21]

1. Way too early to tell. It's foolish to predict this electoral map

based on the results of 2004! Just how much has Shrub's poll numbers dropped since then? How many more pissed off people are there now v/s then?

[AndyTiedye]

7. It is a Map for Entering Your Own Predictions

He linked to his, or at least I got somebody's saved predictions when I clicked.
I got a different (far more optimistic) set by clicking on the link in post 2.

[dsomuah]

11. I think I agree tho

There's a conservative blogger at http://www.electionprojection.com that uses statistical analysis of polls to predict the outcome of elections. His current projection is that if the election were held today, Obama would beat McCain 279 - 259, the dems would gain 4 seats in the senate 5 seats in the house, and 1 state governorship.

I take his predictions seriously because:

1. He accurately called almost every race in the 2006 elections.
2. He is one of the only socially conservative republican's whom I haven't known to get obnoxious when talking politics.
3. He is a republican who is willing to admit that things are not looking good for the republicans in this election.

He looks at polling numbers that show Obama doing well in states like Colorado, Louisiana, Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin states which all went for Bush in 2004 but which are now currently leaning democratic.

Let's go win this thing.

[Earth Bound Misfit]

13. Welcome to DU! n/t

:hi:

[virtualobserver]

2. here is mine

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/?dList=ia,nh,nv,fl,ca,wy,co,ct,de,ga,il,mo,nj,ny,nc,ore,pa,ri,mi,wa,me1,me2,me0,md,va,wi,hi,ma,mn,oh,tx,vt,ind,nm,ks,dc&rList=sc,al,ak,ar,ok,tn,ut,la,az,nd,ms,ne0,ne1,ne2,ne3,wv,ky,id,mt,sd&uList=

[AndyTiedye]

4. Can I have Some of Whatever You Are Smoking?

I'd love to see the election turn out like that, but it's not gonna happen.
For starters, Georgia CANNOT go blue as long as Diebold counts all their votes.

[TransitJohn]

5. Haha....pass that number this way too.

Wyoming. :eyes: I like your optimism, but there ain't no way my state's gonna leave the GOP this time around.

[virtualobserver]

10. my prediction is based on where the economy will be in November

Diebold won't make any adjustments in this election

[Earth Bound Misfit]

6. TEXAS???

Anybody know the last time TEXAS voted Blue?

[virtualobserver]

9. Bush is at 39% approval and falling......the economy is crashing

it will still be close.

[Earth Bound Misfit]

12. I hope you're right!

Did a little diggin' & answered my own question--Carter '76 was last time Tex voted Democrat.
Surprisingly, HHH took Tex in '68, and naturally The Dems took Texas in '60 & '64 (LBJ).

[virtualobserver]

14. Noriega will also defeat Cornyn in the Senate race

my "analysis" is based on my belief that the economy will be in shambles by then.

[alittlelark]

3. It's not 'yours'. You may choose to embrace it....

But if you do you will be SHOCKINGLY disappointed.

[AndyTiedye]

8. I'm Pretty Sure the OP Does Not WANT to See Us Lose

Though I note that it is at least very close the way he calls it.
ANY state on that map flipping blue gives us the election.

He is more optimistic than I am. I don't see us winning NC, and I expect FL will get stolen again.
NM and CO seem like long shots against McCain, since that is his back yard.
OTOH, why would we lose MI?

I would be very happy to be proven wrong, though.

I think you, me and the OP will ALL be partying if the scenario in post #2 plays out. :party:

It might be his, you click on the map to select your predictions, and he linked to what I presume were the results.