Eye on the Senate: Another State with Republican Woes

[existentialist]

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/05/eye-on-the-senate-another-stat.html

Eye on the Senate: Another State with Republican Woes

May 26, 2008 3:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)


Congressional Quarterly has an updated summary on Senate races today:


I wouldn't know what to cut if I were to quote it, so I'll just summarize.


Congressional Quarterly specifically discusses New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, Kansas, Alaska, New Mexico, and North Carolina.

It considers all of these races to be competitive, and the article does not rule out other races as possibly being competitive too. Interestingly, CQ's discussion of the individuals races, with supporting polls, more often than not puts the Democrat in a better position than CQ's assessment on its election maps. This is clearly true in Alaska and North Carolina, but perhaps CQ is getting ready to do a map update.


Anyway, specific polls of interest:


New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen 50 Republican incumbent John Sununu 43 2 percent "other" and 4 percent undecided, Rasmussen Reports May 21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.


Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall 47 Republican Bob Schaffer 41
Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 19. Nine percent undecided. margin of error is 4.5 percent.


Minnesota: Democrat Al Franken 44 Republican Norm Coleman 51
Minneapolis Star Tribune. May 12-15. margin of error is 3.6 percent


Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins 52 Democratic challenger Tom Allen 42. However Allen has picked up 6 points in one month.
Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 14. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.


Kansas: Republican Pat Roberts 50 Democrat Jim Slattery 42
Source and date of poll not given


Alaska: Republican Ted Stevens 45 Democrat Mark Begich 47
Rasmussen Reports. May 14. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.



New Mexico: Democrat Tom Udall 61 Republican Heather Wilson 35 or
Democrat Tom Udall 60 Republican Steve Pearce 36
SurveyUSA May 12-14. Margin of error 4.8 %



North Carolina: Republican Elizabeth Dole 48 Democrat Kay Hagan 43.
Public Policy Polling. May 8=9. Margin of error 4%

&

Republican Elizabeth Dole 48
Democrat Kay Hagan 47
Rasmussen Reports. May 25.
One month ago Rasmussen had Elizabeth Dole leading by 13%

[stevedeshazer]

1. Please add Oregon

Oregon: Republican Gordon Smith...45
Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley...42

Smith.......45
Merkley......42


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2008/05/smith_merkley_tight.html

Two polls showing Democratic challengers running close to or ahead of their Republican rivals in Mississippi and North Carolina, which were once thought to be third-tier hopes at best, could be a coincidence. Then again, a third could be a trend. And here it is: A new poll conducted for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee shows the new Democratic nominee running barely behind two-term GOP Senator Gordon Smith of Oregon.

The survey, taken by the Feldman Group for the DSCC between 5/12-16 -- that is, before the state's May 20 primary in which State House Speaker Jeff Merkley narrowly defeated Portland attorney Steve Novick -- tested 800 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 3%. Questions pitting Smith and Merkley were released to the public.

[existentialist]

2. I agree

Oregon, Colorado, and Virginia could have warranted discussion, except that just maybe, in Virginia, even though it is presently Republican, the Democrat is favored by enough that maybe its not really competitive.

However I was not writing on my own perceptions of Senate races, but rather summarizing the article I had read at Congressional Quarterly.

Interesting, although Congressional Quarterly did not discuss Oregon in the article I summarized, they do consider it a competitive race, rating it as "leaning Republican" meaning that they perceive Smith to have only a small advantage.

We are pulling for you in Oregon too.

Incidentally, I lived in Oregon for most of the year of 1998, and voted out there in the 1998 election.