November Predictions?

[DangerDave921]

Personally, I think that very little can be made of polls five months in advance. I can envision McCain winning IF: a) he energizes his base more; and b) whites are reluctant to vote for Obama. I can envision Obama winning IF: a) McCain doesn't inspire the base; and b) a lot of independents move his way.

My biggest concern is race -- how many white folks will be reluctant to vote for a black man?

[slackmaster]

1. I predict that whoever loses will whine endlessly about how the winner "stole" the election

:D

My biggest concern is race -- how many white folks will be reluctant to vote for a black man?

No problem here. I already voted for him once.

[tekisui]

2. Obama needs a GE commercial that says, "If you can't vote for a Black man,

vote for the white half of me."

[VWolf]

3. Ditto.

I'm white last I checked and I voted for him. I think those that won't vote for him wouldn't vote for Clinton, Kerry (04) or any other Dem for that matter.

[TheWatcher]

21. Those of us who "whined" about 2000 and 2004

Were right.

[Mountainman]

4. Just who is McCain's base. I don't think he has one.

The only base I hear he has are some independents and Hillary supporters who would vote for him to spite their noses.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

5. Sure he does. He has Base three, we have Base 10.

his numbers just look bigger than they are

[harun]

6. I think people will start to think McCain is just too old for the job (n/t)

[Night_Nurse]

7. I am embarrased to say...

that my own mother and sister (Hillary supporters both) are planning to vote for McSame if Obama is the candidate, because they are "afraid of blacks taking over the world" (they bought into the whole MSM uproar over Rev. Wright - hook, line, and sinker). OMG, I can't believe that I'm even related to them! Needless to say, there have been some heated arguments in the family. My sister won't even try to listen to me (to reason), she says, "I don't care what you tell me, I'm not going to change my mind." This, from a mother of five, whose husband is working two jobs to make ends meet. I just don't get it.

:banghead:

[JeanGrey]

8. I feel for you. This kind of stubborn racism probably can never

change. I'm white and I voted for him too! My husband's neighbor is having a hissy fit over it.

[Night_Nurse]

9. I know..

it's so utterly frustrating. My mother, I can kind of understand - she's 84, set in her ways, was married to an Archie Bunker for 35 years, and is very easily led by the MSM/negative ads. My sister, I don't understand. We both grew up with "Archie", but while I rejected his bigotry, she believed it to be the truth. Still, she is 40 years old and should know better... one would think.

[cynatnite]

10. I refuse to make predictions...

I did that in 2004 and got a kick to the gut over that. Won't do it again.

[Phoonzang]

11. I made a bet with my Republican friend in 2004

sometime in May, that John Kerry would lose. He was utterly convinced that Kerry was going to beat Bush (and he voted against Bush). I won the bet. I recently made a bet with him that Obama would beat McCain. He think McCain is going to pull off a win. Hopefully my one prediction winning streak will continue.

I have to admit, things look bad for Obama and he's the underdog right now. But it's 6 months until the election.

[LanternWaste]

12. Either way, Democrats take back the White House

Barack or Hillary-- either way, Democrats take back the White House. Popular vote will be a wipe out-- 60%-67% of popular vote goes to Dem nominee. Electoral college will be closer, but still Dem's pull out victory with a comfortable 10-15% margin lead.

We'll pick up even more seats in the House. Senate worries me, but not too much. We'll keep our edge there too, but nothing to the degree where we have any real or total control over the calendar.

McCain will turn off the independents or his base-- it's an either-or choice for him. And since he can't win unless he has the support of both, he simply won't win.

Race? Not concerned about it at all vis-a-vis the election. To Progressives and Independents, it's a non-factor. It's only a factor to those whites who wouldn't dream of voting for a Democratic nominee regardless of his/her race.

[Zynx]

14. If we win 60% of the popular vote, which is about as high as anyone has done, we get 400+ EVs

easily. More likely we get close to 500.

[DangerDave921]

16. what are you smoking?

60%-67% popular vote??? When in the hell has that taken place in recent history?

I think Obama has some big negatives in a general election. Young, inexperienced on the national level, black, and some baggage of his prior associates. So I would be highly surprised if he had a huge win as you predict.

I also disagree with your assessment on race. I think there are plenty of Dems out there who may vote for a white Dem, but may hesitate to vote for a black Dem. Very hard to predict this number though.

[LanternWaste]

17. I'm smoking hope and optimism, chief-- what's your deal...?

"When in the hell has that taken place in recent history?"

History's about to change. McCain has effectively split his base into two factions and he can't get both on his side, therefore only one portion of the base will vote for him while the portion simply sits this election out.

(Don't get too frustrated by my opnions though-- no need to infer that I smoke simply because my predictions are different than yours, otherwise, I suppose you must have to accuse a lot of people of smoking...)


I suppose we disagree-- I don't foresee any Dems discounting a nominee simply due to race or sex, maybe you do.

[CTyankee]

18. I have aproblem with your assertion that there are plenty of Dems who won't vote for a black.

Historically, the Dem Party lost their majority status in this country when they "lost" the south, due to LBJ's civil rights legislation. The repubs, to their great disgrace, welcomed the bigots in the south. I do not see a mass exodus of such racists back into the Dem party and I don't know where you see it either.

If anything, we Dems over the past 40 years or so have turned off the racist voters. They hate us. Conversely, we have gotten most of our new converts from the Independents and more center-left repubs.

Please tell me where you get this "information" about Dem racist voters. You really need something to back up your assertion...

[postulater]

13. Huge voter turnout. Only a few votes counted correctly.

[Rosemary2205]

15. Hillary will beat Grandpa by 4%.

LOL -- well you asked. :)

[BlackmanX]

19. Obama wins with western support

I think that Obama will win Iowa, Colarado, New Mexico, and Nevada plus keep everything Kerry won except New Hampshire. The bush association will hurt mccain in the long run and we'll see that at their convention. Obama will win the election because mccain's age will hurt him more than the race issue.

[Bozita]

20. The "October Surprise" backfires. GOP loses 45 House seats, 11 in Senate.