If Obama takes a big enough bite out of red states, but not enough to take those states...

[ourbluenation]

could we be looking at him winning the popular by the 100,000's, but not winning the electoral college?

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/06/some_thoughts_on_a_hypothetica.php

[Zynx]

1. States don't vote in isolation. The odds are if he is performing better in red states

he will end up carrying blue states by larger margins and flip a number of purple states.

[ourbluenation]

2. carrying blue states is a given. which states are the purple states?

[Zynx]

8. The big ones I am watching are Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, and Colorado.

[ginchinchili]

6. This isn't necessarily true.

Because of the black turnout in traditionally red states Obama is expected to do better, particularly in the south, but it's unlikely he will do good enough to win in these states, just make it closer. On the other hand, there are a lot of voters in blue states, particularly older white voters (and this is a voting block that votes in high percentages) that don't like Obama because of his reference to them during the runup to the Pennsylvania primary, and his lack of experience, something most older voters naturally consider to be very important. To many of these voters McCain will appear to be a viable alternative because of his experience, his military service, and his track record of taking difficult, independent positions on many issues. Whether it's enough to make a difference in the election remains to be seen. I think Obama is a better campaigner than McCain and, therefore, should be able to win enough of these voters over in order to win the election. His desire to win is stronger than any ill-will he may feel toward that voting block, so he'll say what he has to in order to win them over. He's good at that.

[Zynx]

7. These patterns take hold across state lines.

As I said, states don't vote in isolation. They aren't 50 little sealed off contests and the demographics in one state cut across, more often than not, its neighbors as well as beyond. Some states may change, but the odds are they will be offset by changes elsewhere in terms of their margins relative to the national margins.

[justinsb]

3. Barr is going to help us in the South

Dem. turnout will be up in the South with students and black voters out in record numbers at the same time Barr is going to be leaching off evangelicals and Republicans who don't like McCain. It should, at the very very least, give us Georgia (Barr's home state).

[Gman]

4. And I am not completely certain that

it is not Barr's intent to do so.

[FARAFIELD]

5. No More Like Millions

What happens is that Boosting his red state numbers means his overall majority goes up. A 3 millions vote win (roughly 51-48) will help him govern more effectively. He WONT win by 100K. any DEM that wins a popular vote margain like that is 99% likely to lose the EV, if you look at the history of it. Kennedy would be the anomaly but because he had a conservative taking votes in the south.