SFRC hearing Thurs 2:30p on Oil, Oligarchs, and Opportunity incl. Z. Brzezinski

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I'll try to kick this tomorrow too before it starts.

usually a live feed here:
http://foreign.senate.gov/index.html

later archived with hearing summary and written statements here:
http://foreign.senate.gov/hearings/2008/hrg080612p.html

OIL, OLIGARCHS, AND OPPORTUNITY: ENERGY FROM CENTRAL ASIA TO EUROPE

Thursday, June 12, 2008
Time: 2:30 P.M.
Presiding: Senator Biden


Witnesses:

Panel 1:
Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski
Counselor and Trustee
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Washington, DC

Panel 2:
Dr. Leon Fuerth
Research Professor
The Elliot School of International Affairs
The George Washington University
Washington, DC

Ms. Zeyno Baran
Director,
Center for Eurasian Policy
Hudson Institute
Washington, DC

Mr. Roman Kupchinsky
Partner
AZEast Group
Mahwah, New Jersey

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1. 5 minute warning bump...

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2. Brzezinski speaking first (before opening statements due to 3pm floor vote)

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3. Biden ? - how does current Russian govmt view issues of greater access to non-Russian Asian oil

Brz. answer - monopolistic ambition - maximize Russia's control of oil resources in entire former Soviet Union.

And many leaders there are oil execs.

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4. discussing that U.S. and E.U. not working together on oil supply issues

and that a number of E.U. leaders are tightly connected to Russian energy initiatives.

Partly due to deterioration of U.S. - Europe relations

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5. Lugar - describing his recent trip to central Asia, impressions.

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6. Zb - exec. branch has been less interested and effective than senators, others

also U.S. sending conflicting messages to Europe.

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7. Lugar - who should be taking lead on this? ZB - president, SecOfState, multiple Depts.

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8. Nelson (FL) showing map of Russian control of petrol. in Europe

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9. ZB - Russia will be tempted to use energy as political tool. Iran will not always be hostile to us.

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10. Could Putins title change to Czar? ZB - interesting quip of titles and real power. nt

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11. Lugar - general ? and followup on Iran - need to think for broad future, not separate countries

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12. ZB - present character of Iranian regime is transitional - young people want change

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13. at one time, had a GOOD relationship with Israel. If we're intelligent about it, will in future

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14. Biden - what would be consequences of military confrontation with Iran (from U.S. or Israel)

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15. ZB - short-term would destabilize our election process - rational national choice more difficult

long-term - bogged down in conflict in Iraq, Iran, Afghan, Pakistan for many many years, "unable to exercise constructive global role", with other countries benefiting from that, adverse to our own interests.

Hopes noone seeks to exploit situation for short-term national benefits!

Biden - We should have you here more often.

Recess for voting, will resume in a bit.

[gateley]

16. Thanks for this --

Aaargh! I've got the little RealPlayer window up, it SAYS it's playing, but the pic is just a statement about what hearing is going on -- are they on a break? I have no sound, either.

EDIT -- never mind -- As I clicked to post, saw your "recessed for voting". I'll be patient and keep an eye out on this link.

You're our Public Service Announcer, JIOOU!

[mtf80123]

17. Yes

they are break for voting in the Senate. I think they said they would be back in about 10 minutes.

Brazinski's statements were truly frightening.

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18. BIG warning there - I was listening not watching but wondering about his facial expression

Thought of making an OP but probably noone cares :shrug:

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26. Thanks

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19. heard Nelson, Biden, Lugar, Hagel vote already so expect they'll be back soon - wonder if Kerry

will join them? Heard him vote too. Boxer, Feingold, Menendez would have been interesting. I love this committee!

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20. Before next panel comes up, Hudson Institute is conservative, right?

Trying to remember but it's ringing a bell - something anti-environmental.

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21. Recess over, back from vote, Biden introducing next panel, Lugar stopped by press in elevator

Biden putting his own statement in record. (So much for Joe being attention hog :P)

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22. Biden - big ? = how can we form common western reponse to power of energy exporters

and surprising it hasn't happened so far

from me - answer probably in earlier commentary on fractures between US & EU

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23. LF - was asked to provide info on Clinton-Gore admin perspective plus future

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25. post-Soviet collapse era - strong collaboration led by Gore, others

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28. warnings of geostrategic power potential of Russia and Iran back then; US lacking specialists then

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29. lots of detail on US policy on pipelines from Caspian, other regional political strategy

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24. damn I just tuned it

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27. tried to hit some highlights - they usually get video archive up next day

feel free to add notes! - I may not be able to keep up with it

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30. This is the first time I have watch on my real player and it says I can record it

I'm trying that now hopefully it works and I can put some of it up on youtube later

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31. cool, though ZB's remarks earlier on Iran -> Election were kind of important! nt

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32. LF - Future: organization behind policy determines success - Clinton-Gore one was good

flexible, adaptive, open, connected to other diplomatic and national security efforts.

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33. US govmt has lost its focus - our poltical independence depends on our econ. indep.

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34. Baran up now

Comments about former soviets -> EU blocked - related to energy politics? missed some of that.

Russia now headed by energy execs

thanked Lugar for getting new liaison?

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35. discussing maps, monopolies

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36. RK - on Russian economic schemes, organized crime

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37. Biden - how much gas to fill Nabuko (sp?) pipeline to be economically feasible?

cost of building line to Austria etc.

construction phases over time

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38. GE, Bechtel, Shell mentioned as part of consortium in past

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39. more discussion of U.S. role in politics of this under Clinton/Gore

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40. Biden - what should be next steps - if Bush epiphany or in new admin.

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41. then they say, well, let's just skip to new admin :-)

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42. Biden - poll of Americans last yr - 70% chose energy > Iraq as security issue

public ahead of both parties' political leadership.

Should be consensus among parties on this issue regardless of John or Barack in office.

As long as we fail to have coherent strategy for leaving Iraq w/o leaving chaos, and no strategy w/ Iran, can't take advantage of public will on this issue.

Our grandchildren will say our big security issue of early 21st century was energy, not Iraq. Iraq currently in way of moving ahead on everything (his familiar boulder-in-the-road analogy).

? - is our lack of flexibility and initiative on energy related to our lack of policy on Iran and lack of strategy on Iraq withdrawal

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43. more difficult now than in 90s - stronger links to even food prices

LF - "we are writing history of the future"

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44. delete

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45. Biden - what's diff between organized crime vs. Putin etc. leadership in Russia

answer: no difference!

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46. Biden - this committee will have little influence on rest of Bush admin

but maybe can have more influence on next admin with respect to global pipelines and political control of oil. "We are at an inflection point."