8/22 Election Model (TIA): OBAMA AT 335EV. But that's before ELECTION FRAUD - x

[tiptoe]

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: August 22

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

Chart   Battleground-State Polls

Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

8/22/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
ELECTORAL VOTE

Obama
McCain
 45.45 (51.29) 
 43.16 (48.71) 
 45.00 (51.37) 
 42.60 (48.63) 
52.28
47.72
52.44
47.56
335
203

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre   Undecided-Voter Allocation 
5-Poll Mov Avg             2-Party          

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

Trend
                            
Rasmussen
Gallup
FOX
CBS/NYT
NBC/WSJ

Bloomberg
Quinnipiac
Zogby
Gallup
Pew

IBD/TIPP
CBS
Time
AP/Ipsos
CNN

Date
            
8/20
8/20
8/20
8/19
8/18

8/18
8/17
8/16
8/10
8/10

8/10
8/05
8/04
8/04
7/29

Size
            
3000LV
2658LV
900RV
869RV
1005RV

1248RV
1547LV
1089LV
903RV
2414RV

925RV
906RV
808RV
1002RV
914RV

MoE
            
1.8%
1.9%
3.3%
3.3%
3.1%

2.8%
2.5%
3.0%
3.3%
2.0%

3.2%
3.3%
3.4%
3.1%
3.2%

Obama
            
48
45
42
45
45

45
47
41
45
46

43
45
46
48
51

McCain
            
46
44
39
42
42

43
42
46
38
43

38
39
41
42
44

Diff
            
2
1
3
3
3

2
5
(5)
7
3

5
6
5
6
7

 

Obama
            
45.0
44.4
44.8
44.6
44.6

44.8
44.4
44.0
45.0
45.6

46.6
47.0
48.0
47.0
46.8

McCain
            
42.6
42.0
41.6
43.0
42.2

42.4
41.4
40.8
39.8
40.6

40.8
43.0
44.2
44.0
43.8

|

Obama
            
51.4
51.4
51.9
50.9
51.4

51.4
51.7
51.9
53.1
52.9

53.3
52.2
52.1
51.6
51.7

Win Prob
               
93.3
92.4
86.7
70.5
81.0

83.5
91.5
89.3
96.7
99.8

97.8
91.0
87.9
85.2
84.2

 

Obama
            
52.44
52.56
52.96
52.04
52.52

52.48
52.92
53.12
54.12
53.88

54.16
53.00
52.68
52.40
52.44

McCain
            
47.56
47.44
47.04
47.96
47.48

47.52
47.08
46.88
45.88
46.12

45.84
47.00
47.32
47.60
47.56

Diff
         
4.9
5.1
5.9
4.1
5.0

5.0
5.8
6.2
8.2
7.8

8.3
6.0
5.4
4.8
4.9

Win Prob
               
99.6
99.6
96.2
88.5
94.5

96.0
98.9
98.0
99.3
100.0

99.4
96.5
93.6
93.6
93.0

 

 

The pundits are saying that the race is tightening. According to Electoral-vote.com, the decline in Obama’s state polls has resulted in a 269–256 EV spread. RealClearPolitics.com shows the national polls tightening. The Zogby poll has McCain leading by 5 points. By just presenting polling data without making adjustments for the large number of undecided and newly registered voters, these and other election forecasting sites confirm the media spin that the race is close.

The Election Model calculates that Obama has a bigger lead than these sites indicate. The Monte Carlo electoral vote simulation has him leading by 335–203. He leads in the aggregate State projection model by 52.3–47.7% and in the National model by 52.2–47.8%. The calculations assume the election is held today.

Here’s why Obama is doing better:
...
But there’s another, bigger problem for Obama: Election Fraud. The media pundits want to keep it close by avoiding McCain’s gaffes, flip-flops and plagiarisms. Never mind that he supports the most unpopular president in history. In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.

NOT ONE ELECTION WEBSITE, POLLSTER OR MEDIA PUNDIT EVER MENTIONS THE FRAUD FACTOR.
...

full update here

[tiptoe]

1. typo correction

"He leads...in the National model by 52.4–47.6%."

[tiptoe]

2. VIEW ALL STATE AND 15 NATIONAL POLLS RIGHT HERE nt