Getting a pretty good shower near Mobile.

[trof]

First little band of Gustav coming through.
Shouldn't last long.

[trof]

1. Just lost dish signal for a minute.

Back now.
Going down the street to play cards this evening and watch the storm progress.

[Vincardog]

3. Good luck

[ronnykmarshall]

2. Hang tight baby!

and please be safe.

[TahitiNut]

4. "HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT"

O.CON.KMOB.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
219 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA COAST. HURRICANE
GUSTAV REMAINS A CATEGORY THREE STORM. GUSTAV IS MOVING QUICKLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FOR 50 MILES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FOR 200 MILES. SHOULD THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WOULD AFFECT COASTAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR EXPECTED
HEAVY RAINS.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 100 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...GUSTAV SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE TO DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV REMAINS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL
LANDFALL.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 RECENTLY
REPORTED 8-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 60 MPH...WITH A GUST TO 78 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...ALONG TIDAL FLOOD AREAS...AND ACROSS THE SPECIFIED
MARINE WATERS...USUALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. PERSONS SHOULD COMPLETE
THEIR PREPARATIONS AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE TODAY FOR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS THAT ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TAKE ACTION NOW TO
SECURE PROPERTY...ESPECIALLY AT BEACH FRONT HOMES AND WITH BOATS.

PEOPLE RESIDING IN FEMA TRAILERS NEED TO EVACUATE THEM AND SEEK
SAFER SHELTER. MOBILE COUNTY HAS ORDERED MANDATORY EVACUATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF 1-10...INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS FOWL
RIVER...CODEN...BAYOU LA BATRE AND DAUPHIN ISLAND. BALDWIN COUNTY HAS
ORDERED MANDATORY EVACUATIONS OF THE ENTIRE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA...ALL
AREAS SOUTH OF FORT MORGAN ROAD IN THE CITY OF GULF SHORES...PLASH
ISLAND AND OTHER LOW LYING...SURGE AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

RELATIVES OR NEIGHBORS OF ELDERLY OR HANDICAPPED RESIDENTS IN
MANDATORY EVACUATION AREAS OR OTHER FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS SHOULD
ENSURE THAT THEY ARE MOVED TO A SAFE REFUGE. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO
COMPLETE THESE EVACUATIONS BY LATE TODAY. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO
AND TELEVISION FOR DETAILS FOR THE LATEST EVACUATION INFORMATION.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
ON MONDAY MORNING. STARTING MONDAY MORNING...THE MAXIMUM TOTAL STORM
TIDE COULD REACH 6 TO 8 FEET ALONG SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY FROM CEDAR
POINT WESTWARD ACROSS PORTERSVILLE BAY...CODEN AND BAYOU LA BATRE.
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF MOBILE BAY...TOTAL STORM TIDE FROM THE
FOWL RIVER AREA NORTH ACROSS THE THEODORE INDUSTRIAL CANAL...DOG
RIVER...TO THE ALABAMA STATE DOCKS AND PORT OF MOBILE COULD REACH 4
TO 6 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF MOBILE BAY
AND SOUTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY...TOTAL STORM TIDE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 4 TO 6 FEET. WE ARE ENTERING INTO A NEAP TIDE CYCLE AS GUSTAV
MAKES LANDFALL...SO THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE
IN THE OVERALL STORM TIDE HEIGHT.

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY DUE TO HIGH WINDS
AND EXTREMELY LARGE BREAKING WAVES. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE
THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF...DO NOT ENTER THE WATER
UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

MAJOR TO EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA STATE LINE.
MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA STATE LINE EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA.

...WINDS...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE ALABAMA COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH HIGHER HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAIN BANDS MOVING IN OFF THE GULF ON THE EAST SIDE OF GUSTAV BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ISOLATED AMOUNTS FROM 8
TO 10 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE CASE THAT RAIN BANDS
SET UP AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT. THESE AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...TORNADOES...

THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
ARE MORE LIKELY TO CONTAIN TORNADOES.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE AROUND 500 PM CDT.

[trof]

5. Thanks. Been watching this for 5 days.

It would have to make a drastic shift eastward to even come close to us.
And there's nothing out there, weather wise, to cause it to shift.
I'm predicting landfall just a little south of Houma, LA.
If you can call that swampy muck and mire 'land'.

The only ones leaving this area are the Labor Day vacationers on the beach.
Steady stream of traffic headed north since this a.m.

[TahitiNut]

11. I lived off Moffet Road in NW Mobile and my stepmother's family was in Foley and Fairhope.

I know the area pretty well. I used to water ski in the Mobile Bay bayous, eat red snapper on the causeway, swim off Gulf Shores, fish off Dauphin Island, and go to college at Spring Hill College.

STAY SAFE. (I'm wishing you well.)

[misanthrope]

6. After Danny dumped more than 30 inches...

...in one 24-hour period a decade ago, nothing seems excessive.

[trof]

7. Barometer's steady at 29.82. 100.9 milibars.

Been there for the last 2 days.
Just thumped it and the needle went to 29.80.
So far, so good, but the NOLA folks are in for some bad stuff.

[trof]

8. See some heavy rain bands on radar 100 miles south of Pensacola.

Gonna be a rainy night.
We're about 35 miles west of P'cola, 45 miles east of Mobile.

[Nikki Stone1]

9. Good luck, trof

Be safe, ok?

[trof]

10. Thanks. We'll be fine.

I'll give a blow-by-blow (pun intended) tomorrow.
;-)

[Beausoir]

12. Thanks, Trof. I have a dear friend in Foley, AL. She is boarded up on the S side

of the house....just in case.

She get nervous about these and I certainly don't blame her.


You and MizT stay safe and sound!