Electoral- vote.com has obama 273, mcCain 238

[dtotire]

Discouraging projection. If we lose just one state, McCain wins.


http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Trekologer]

1. Virginia went to weak repub

But that is to be expected from the GOP convention "bounce". As long as Obama stays on message and keeps talking about the issues that matter, I strongly think we win hands down.

[dems_rightnow]

2. Keep an eye on the really close states

It's not that bad, but we do need to reverse a strong couple of weeks for McCain. Out of the close states, I'd estimate that Obama is really only "at risk" in Colorado and Nevada.

McCain is at risk in Ohio, Indiana, New Mexico and Virginia.

Florida remains a total tossup so far.

[dtotire]

3. If We Take Florida

We won't need Colorado or Nevada, or Ohio. It may take luck, and good turnout.

[Trekologer]

4. FL, OH, or VA

We take any of one those three and we win.

(edited to add the following)

If Obama wants to win Florida, he needs to start taking about closing the Medicare part D "donut hole" right now. If he does that, he can put other states in play as well.