Nasty warning from the National Weather Service

[Tab]

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF
BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

http://weather.yahoo.com/storm/USTX0499.html

[oldtime dfl_er]

1. Whoa

that's awful. Be careful people!!

[uppityperson]

2. Axe. If you stay, make sure you have an axe with you.

Remembering people who drowned in their attics after Katrina, and knowing some who chopped their way out on to their roofs.

[roamer65]

3. Sounds like it could rival the 1900 Galveston hurricane.

About 8 to 9,000 people died in that one. Please pack quickly and get out folks.

[jobycom]

16. Very different.

The 1900 hurricane wasn't that powerful, but it hit without warning. Galveston Island in 1900 was a sandbar whose highest point above sea level was 9 feet. Most of the island was well below that. The storm surge sunk the island for three hours, so there was no where to go and nothing to hold on to. After 1900, they built a 17 foot seawall, raised the level of the island to the height of the seawall (jacking up the surviving buildings to fill in under them), and then graded the land another four feet above that. Galveston has faced worse storms than the 1900 Hurricane since then, and had nowhere near the destruction.

Every hurricane is different. This one is so dangerous because of its size. So far, it's a minor Category 2 hurricane and weakening a little, and even so, it's causing tidal flooding as far away as Mississippi already. If it stays this strength, the size could create a 20 foot storm surge, and the extended amount of rain can swell rivers inland, so that coastal regions might get flooded twice--once from the coast, once from the flood runoff inland (the release in the OP warns of this). At 100 MPH, the winds are a lessor threat, except that they will be blowing twice as long as a hurricane half its size, so structures will weaken over time, and trees will face eight hours or more of gale winds as well as rains weakening their root systems. That will make the winds more dangerous than in a smaller storm.

And that's if it doesn't strengthen. If it does, things could get a lot worse.

So this storm is very dangerous, but not in the same way that the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 was. This one is dangerous more like Katrina was. Though so far, it's much weaker than Katrina.

The Saffir-Simpson Scale only measures wind speed, assuming hurricanes will be roughly the same size, and that pressure and rainfall and surge will all be proportional to the wind speed. As we saw with Katrina, that's a flawed assumption. The great size of Katrina allowed a storm surge of unprecedented height, and this hurricane is the same size. The advisory a few hours ago said that hurricane force winds extend from the eye 115 miles. Normally a hurricane is half that, and often even less. Whether the surge will be as great as Katrina is not known, but the wind speed, and thus the S-S rating, are not indicative of its real danger.

For whatever all that's worth. I guess what I'm saying is don't judge this hurricane by any past standards. Listen to the specific warnings about this one.

[axollot]

24. Very true and look at T.S. Fay ...

... I don't think we've ever had an evac here for a tropical storm. So it's not like the storms are getting 'stronger' lately as they are lasting longer - there-fore floods, roof damage, tidal surge, you name it - happens.

I live in Florida and had Fay spinning over us for several days - the kids had been out of school from Wednesday through Friday, with Fay actually leaving Sunday (but still dumped water on us on the way out!) and the schools re-opened Monday.

We do NOT live close to the beach, but not far from the St John's River which is a huge river. Our county was slammed, I don't live south of Orlando either - I'm actually not far from the GA border.

While my brother in MS emailed me minor flooding pics from IKE, we have been getting rain and squall winds from the very far outer bands from IKE in NE FL. (Katrina HIT HARD area where he's at though - it's considered 'ground zero' where Katrina hit my Mums small area a walk to Waveland MS - it was flattened completely with only foundations left, he lives in a Katrina Cottage on my mother's old foundation - she moved inland due to age + evacs)

This is Nothing to mess with that's for sure, sadly, I heard on the radio today that many Galveston residents were staying after the botched evac for Rita which never happened for their area and turned into a tailgate 'get together' since it was certainly no party on the interstate. Dunno about the island or what area she was from. She described what she saw people buying at the store and as someone who sat through several hurricanes especially in 2004 - the items purchased sounded like 'hunkering' down items.

Get Out Now Please Galveston! At best - it will be quite bad even if it shifts direction several hundred miles one direction or another - you'll still get a LOT of IKE.

Best of luck - Be safe everyone!

Cheers
Sandy

[intheflow]

27. You sure can't judge any hurricane by it's predecessors.

That was a big problem on the Mississippi Coast. Many people that stayed behind thought it certainly wouldn't be worse than Camille. How wrong they were. :(

[napi21]

4. I just heard this on KPOJ TOO! That's some really scary stuff!

I assume they're talking about Galveston. I'd say if people don't pay attention to this, they're beeing very dumb.

[Tab]

9. I didn't quote the whole thing, but yes

Follow the link for the whole NWS Severe Weather Alert, but yes - they're referring to Galveston and Galveston Island, and anything close. Even Houston, which is further away, is going to get nailed with winds and broken windows and would be quite a mess in and of itself. The National Weather Service is usually pretty reserved, although they figure it's better to err on the side of caution and tell people to stay inside (in case of a bad snowstorm, say) and not drive. If they say you're facing certain death, not just "risking" death, but facing certain death, I'd be paying attention and getting my ass out of there PDQ.

[uppityperson]

5. rec

[texastoast]

6. Where are those Rethuglicans?

Surely they are concerned. :sarcasm:

This is going to be one badass storm unless things change quickly.

[RB TexLa]

7. That isn't really their job. People have a right to stay if they wish.

If elected officials wish to chastise the decisions of people fine but the weather service tells us about the weather. This is about as stupid as the fact that they have me in Plano, TX under a tropical storm watch.

[napi21]

11. Yep. People have the right to die too, I guess. n/t

[Fran Kubelik]

12. Say what? I do believe that it is their job.

Weather warnings are definitely the purview of the NWS.

[RB TexLa]

15. That is not a weather warning. That goes well past a weather warning

a weather warning tells people what the weather is expected to do.

[ArbustoBuster]

22. If the weather is expected to kill people in one or two story homes...

...then that's what it's expected to do. A storm surge that is 20 feet tall (which is what the entire weather warning calls for in the Galveston Bay area) will, indeed, kill anyone inside a two story home on the shoreline.

[RB TexLa]

25. Here this will make you feel better.

Pretend some of the people that are standing are in front of you. Now tilt your head back so you can look right down your nose toward them, hold that for probably 60 to 45 seconds. At some point say "see I'm looking down my nose at you because I am so smart and you are so stupid. You should do as I would do because I am smart and you are stupid, stupid, stupid. Can't you understand how smart I am, oh you can't because you are so stupid. So I will just keep staring down my nose at you to let you know how stupid you are and how smart I am."

There actually is a DUer staying and has a thread going you could post on there and tell them how stupid they are for not doing what you want them to do. That will also make you feel even more superior and better about yourself.

[ArbustoBuster]

32. Is there something creating this chip on your shoulder?

No, seriously. Who pissed in your Wheaties today?

[realisticphish]

8. holy crap

i think they're trying to keep a repeat of katrina from happening as much as possible

[magellan]

29. That's what I think too -- wording can't be mistaken here

They actually gave a very good warning about what to expect from Katrina the night before, but for some reason the advisory wasn't given much attention. That allowed BushCo and friends to blame them for "not giving enough warning". This one, the wording is so shocking it WILL be heard.

[HeeBGBz]

10. Get out of Galveston and the low places!

Don't fuck with a surge.

[Cassandra]

13. I have a friend in Galveston.

I hope she's ok.

[texastoast]

31. She must leave

Mandatory evac, but that won't stop some surfers.

[Cassandra]

33. She and her husband are in their 60s.

I'm sure they've gone but I expect them to be worried about the expected damage to their house.

[Catherine Vincent]

14. I know this is a bad storm but why do I get the feeling they are exaggerating?

[jobycom]

17. Not exactly exaggerating. They are giving the worst case model.

Maybe it won't be that bad, but you can't up the warning once the hurricane hits and houses start flooding.

[pokercat999]

18. Lets say I live in Galvaston I could take a three day trip to

NM or hang around and risk death for no good reason. Yep no brainer, I'd stay and die......not.

[lastliberalintexas]

19. I think there are several factors causing concern

Ike is expected to hit at high tide, which could add several feet to the storm surge. Our local guys are now saying that Port Arthur's seawall will be breached by Ike, even though it wasn't during Rita. If that really does happen, the warnings were necessary to get people to safe places.

[pacalo]

20. It's actually a crapshoot. Gustav was called the "Storm of the Century"

with expected "20-foot high" water surges. "If you stay, I hope you have an ax...because you're going to have to chop your way onto the roof," is what Ray Nagin said on tv.

If we had stayed, nothing worse than 3 or 4 hours without electricity would have happened to us.

On the other hand, as I write this, there are some really gusty winds going on & Ike happens to be around 250 miles away from Louisiana in the Gulf. Ike seems to be the real deal & my thoughts are with those who will be affected.

[realisticphish]

23. after katrina

exaggeration might be a good thing.

[intheflow]

28. When Katrina warnings came out,

they said there would suffering of Biblical proportions for the people who didn't evacuate. And they were right. :(

[undeterred]

21. And Crawford?

[texastoast]

30. Will get wet

And that is about it.

[glinda]

26. Minnesota House for Sale

On high ground, dry, view of the River, affordable.
Geeeeze. Awful situation.