Whats up with the 3 remaining senate races

[Juche]

My understanding is Begich is still ahead by 1022 and the rest are in large cities and Begich favored territories. This is similiar to what happened in Oregon where they were still counting but the remaining votes were in dem favored territory. So if we get Begich that is 58.

Franken is still behind about 220 votes, but on 538 they talk about how 0.25-0.9% of ballots will probably be reclassified (errors made on the ballot that the computers didn't count as votes but a hand count will catch as an intentional vote for Franken or Coleman) during the recount, so about 7500-25000 senate votes added. He also claims that voters more likely to prefer Franken (younger, first time, lower income) may be more likely to make mistakes on the ballots that will be caught in the recount, so reclassifications may slightly benefit Franken (assume 51/49 rather than a 50/50 split as Franken's voters may be more likely to make mistakes that get caught in the hand recount).

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/frankens-odds-of-winning-recount-may-be.html

They claim if 0.75% of ballots are reclassifed and classified to prefer Franken to Coleman 51/49 then Franken has a 86% of winning.

Does the dem have a chance in Georgia? I'm assuming the votes that went to the libertarian candidate will go to Chambliss this time. Does martin have a chance there?

Also I think O'reilly threatened to move to Ireland if Franken won (this was before the race got as close as it is now). Any word on that?

[Idealism]

1. If 538 believes it, I'm on board

They did a fabolous job during the election, kudos to Nate Silver and the gang :)
Chambliss most likely will win the run off, but Mr. Clinton is being dispatched down to Georgia along with the GOTV ground game that helped Obama win the presidency, so I am optimistic. Begich wins, Franken may pick it up, but 60 doesn't look so good. Good thing that several GOP senators are in heavy blue states (the Maine delegation) and they are up for reelction next term.

Edit: Also, if Obama appoints a GOP senator to his cabinet, like he says he will, the governor (usually-some states vary) get to appoint a replacement. If he for instance picks McCain for a position, Janet Napolitano(D) can choose who replaces him, brining us closer to 60.

[rocktivity]

2. Yes, 538 certainly showed up the MSM veteran campaign "experts."

And I still haven't figured out who died and left Politico in charge.

:headbang:
rocknation

[MiniMe]

4. Sometimes they have rules to follow about which political party the replacement comes from

However, I would think that Napolitano would pick the most liberal republican she could find if she had to choose a republican.

[MindMatter]

5. It seems to me that state rules also vary re: special elections

I'm not positive about that, but it seems some states allow the Gov to appoint somebody to serve out the term whereas other states require a special election at the earliest practical date.

[krispos42]

3. Franken officially down by 206

I read in the paper it was 5,881 Norm votes for every 5,880 Al votes, so that's a pretty damn tight race. A one-vote difference every 11,761 votes? That's nothing.

Compared to the Presidential race, where it was 7.87 Obama votes to 6.87 McCain votes. Or 8:7 if you want to round things.


The race is going into automatic recount.