Article incorrectly claims "The model for today's recession, they say, is closer to the 1981-82 slump during the Carter presidency when unemployment reached 10.4 percent"
Northeast Ohio job losses spread; experts say economy will get worse
Posted by Alison Grant and Tom Breckenridge/Plain Dealer Reporters November 17, 2008 03:24AM
Economists call it the "paradox of thrift."
As job anxiety spreads, nervous consumers are salting away money, the prudence long recommended for our credit card-crazy nation.
But what the economy really needs is people to spend. The pullback is cramping business growth and hiring, just as thousands of Northeast Ohioans are being thrown out of work.
<snip>
At Express Employment Professionals in Parma, a placement agency for office, management and light industrial workers, owner Lou Cardinale was pleasantly surprised when he checked in with clients.
"I would say 90 percent of the companies are holding their own. They're keeping their heads low and trying to get through this" without layoffs, he reported.
But new claims for unemployment benefits -- the most current snapshot of job distress -- flash more trouble ahead. They surged in the week ending Nov. 8 to 516,000 new claims across the country, up 32,000 over the previous week. The state with the most-- 3,885 -- was Ohio
Each one of those half million new claims represents a worker who has been laid off.
Many economists expect U.S. unemployment to reach about 8.5 percent by the first quarter of 2010, up from 6.5 percent today.
They say this recession will be harsher than muted recessions in 1990 and 2001 that avoided deep valleys after growth peaks. The model for today's recession, they say, is closer to the 1981-82 slump during the Carter presidency when unemployment reached 10.4 percent. Houseman wonders if we even have a valid reference point, since so much has changed in the past 25 years.
The U.S. has a mountain of debt, mostly to other countries, making it harder to see how we'll spend our way out of the recession, she said.
The nation faces competition from countries that weren't part of the trading system before -- in Eastern Europe and Asia, with Africa still to come on board.
And there's the Internet, which is sending engineering, legal and diagnostic work abroad, and remaking retail, publishing and education.
http://blog.cleveland.com/business/2008/11/northeast_ohio_job_losses_spre.html