Helen Thomas says it's a depression

[Newsjock]

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/389882_helenonline29.html

By HELEN THOMAS
HEARST NEWSPAPERS

WASHINGTON -- Few prominent economists will say it, but to me it looks and feels like we are in another Great Depression or a reasonable facsimile.

The current meltdown is dubbed a "financial crisis." But a rose by any other name would still inflict the same hardship and suffering on most people and businesses.

Clearly, the lessons have not been learned from the Herbert Hoover era. Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, a columnist for The New York Times, says the current banking crisis is "functionally similar to that of the Great Depression."

"Many of the symptoms" are the same, including the impotence of monetary policy -- like cuts in interest rates -- that has not halted the economic downturn.

[Warpy]

1. Yes, but it's not quite a depression yet.

A deep recession is when a lot of people don't have the money to buy anything.

A depression is when there is no longer any place to buy it.

[xchrom]

2. helen is old enough to actually experience the descriptives -- i'll take her word for it. nt

[cali]

7. don't. she's just wrong on this.

it may turn into a depression, but it's not now.

[onenote]

12. so is my dad, and he doesn't think this is comparable, yet.

My dad was born in 1914. During the depression, he and my uncle (his younger brother) had to share one pair of "nice" shoes. And they were actually pretty well off, all things considered (both were in school and my dad even had a part time job while he was in college in NYC in the early 30s).

Now, that's not to say that people aren't suffering greatly today. They are. They are losing their jobs and their homes. But it is not yet widespread enough to warrant the description "Depression", imo.

[xchrom]

13. my mother is older than your dad -- and she thinks it does. nt

[Horse with no Name]

3. What's that old saying?

A recession is where your neighbor doesn't have any money, a depression is when you don't.
I think at this point everyone is parsing words but the truth is, we are in a world of hurt.
People that I work with are fearful.
Many aren't doing big Christmases this year--and they are ones that celebrate to the max.
That makes me kind of happy because I can't afford all the work gifts either.

[SammyWinstonJack]

15. A recession is when your neighbor doesn't have a job, a depression is when you lose yours.

Or something like that.

[Javaman]

9. That's a depression by 1929 terms...]

the various panics of yester year all had different reasons for occuring.

The current situation is nothing like the depression of 1929, it's more like the panic of 1873.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873

[Warpy]

11. I think you're entirely right about that

and that's why I made the distinction I did between Recession/Depression.

The Depression happened because there were 3 1/2 years left of a conservative administration that had absolutely no idea what to do about a major bust. It was simply allowed to play out.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

4. I don't know a single person who has lost their job.

I'm thinking I would if it was a depression

[riverdale]

5. Firemen don't lose their jobs

I lost two jobs in 2008 due to this economy.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

14. Sorry to hear that.

I've heard of several big cities laying firefighters off I just don't know any personally. I wasn't just speaking of firefighters though.

David

[riverdale]

18. Some states are in a depression already

In Michigan, everyone knows someone who has lost a job, or expects to soon.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

19. I could see that.

[Javaman]

10. Probably because the ripple is only now hitting the average people

and not just the financial industry...

Malls, hotels next victims in new mortgage crisis

http://www.examiner.com/a-1714615~Malls__hotels_next_victims_in_new_mortgage_crisis.html

WASHINGTON (Map, News) - The full scope of the housing meltdown isn't clear and already there are ominous signs of a new crisis - one that could turn out the lights on malls, hotels and storefronts nationwide.

Even as the holiday shopping season begins in full swing, the same events poisoning the housing market are now at work on commercial properties, and the bad news is trickling in. Malls from Michigan to Georgia are entering foreclosure.

Hotels in Tucson, Ariz., and Hilton Head, S.C., also are about to default on their mortgages.

That pace is expected to quicken. The number of late payments and defaults will double, if not triple, by the end of next year, according to analysts from Fitch Ratings Ltd., which evaluates companies' credit.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

16. Only reinforcing that we aren't in a depression.

[Javaman]

17. um, okay, so you need a marker huh?

well perhaps if you stop trying to equate our current situation with the 1929 depression and look at the 1873 panic you will see that we are far closer and probably are in a depression, than you may realize, but then again, that would require one to look beyond the tip of ones nose.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

20. Um okay so you think condescension is a good way to make a point huh?

There are markers for a depression, I do believe we are close to a depression. I do believe that some areas of the country are experiencing a depression and have been for some time. I just don't believe we are in a nationwide depression yet. Not when people are trampling workers to death to go shopping.

David

[Javaman]

22. Keep dancing...

I made my point.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

31. Based on your response clearly I made mine as well.

[Javaman]

40. oh man you told me...

you are now blocked. :)

have a nice day!

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

42. I love the smell of napalm in the morning it smells like VICTORY.

Seriously that's weak, sent to ignore for this exchange. You really need to get a thinker skin and definitely should avoid the gungeon.

David

[Samantha]

28. That is what I think - certain parts of this Country are certainly in a

depression. Other parts are experiencing a recession. I don't know of any part of the Country that is doing well, but if there are any out there, I would love to hear about them.

I do think things overall will get worse. The only hope this Country has is that Obama and some very smart people are about to take over. I am not sure this can be turned around quickly, but I do think it can improve for those who manage to hold on.

Sam

PS I responded to your post because I too do not think it is helpful for others to be condescending when disagreeing. I am with you on that.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

32. I agree I don't think it can be turned around quickly.

I fear it may turn into a nationwide depression, the price of oil continuing to drop may help stave that off though. Thanks for the constuctive input.

David

[nadinbrzezinski]

30. Even some Fire Departments are letting go of personnel

and it has to do with... drum roll, a decreasing tax base

That said, she is wrong on this, for very technical reasons

Yes, look at the northeast for this... to be specific Trenton NJ, which has also let go of Police

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

33. Yes, I heard that Atlanta, Idianapolis and Nashville were all laying of firefighters.

I don't know if it actually happened or not. Like I said I just don't know any personally. My area didn't suffer the big decreases in housing prices though, they just dropped like 5%.


David

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. Consider yourself lucky

but this is the history of the depression as well.

Some areas of the country were really, REALLY badly hit, while a few were barely touched...

That said she is wrong for very technical reasons... the question will be for how long?

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

37. I do, of course I considered the economy when I moved here.

I also considered the stablity of the profession when I chose it and to help with that stability I went to Paramedic school on my own time.

David

[nadinbrzezinski]

38. Ah.... I did that for ten years as a volunteer... in Tijuana

but a few incidents convinced me that staying away from patient care in the US (or at least California) was a good idea. Yep, the ever so-popular ambulance chasing lawyers... thankfully that leech is no longer practicing law either.

The joys of living in the most litigious states in the Union... and the ignorance of things like oh Jurisdiction...

These days I couldn't do it... for health reasons, so my best advise... watch the back. Long story.. but patient made it

:-)

Still proud that I helped to establish a top notch program where getting equipment and meds was a pain, to put it mildly.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

41. That's tough, you should be proud.

We don't transport so we deal with lawyers a whole lot less than most. Sorry about your back.

David

[Xipe Totec]

6. When economists admit we're in a recession, then we're in a depression n/t

[FreakinDJ]

8. So did I ..........about 6 months ago

thanx George

[Silent3]

21. In the Great Depression unemployment hit 25%

Perhaps we're headed there, but we aren't there yet, and hopefully we'll find a way to stabilize well before sinking that low.

There aren't any hard and fast definitions of recession vs. depression, but I think this one is useful (from http://economics.about.com/cs/businesscycles/a/depressions_2.htm):

So how can we tell the difference between a recession and a depression? A good rule of thumb for determining the difference between a recession and a depression is to look at the changes in GNP. A depression is any economic downturn where real GDP declines by more than 10 percent. A recession is an economic downturn that is less severe.

By this yardstick, the last depression in the United States was from May 1937 to June 1938, where real GDP declined by 18.2 percent. If we use this method then the Great Depression of the 1930s can be seen as two separate events: an incredibly severe depression lasting from August 1929 to March 1933 where real GDP declined by almost 33 percent, a period of recovery, then another less severe depression of 1937-38. The United States hasn’t had anything even close to a depression in the post-war period. The worst recession in the last 60 years was from November 1973 to March 1975, where real GDP fell by 4.9 percent. Countries such as Finland and Indonesia have suffered depressions in recent memory using this definition.

Not to deny the any of the difficulties we're currently in, but we're still thankfully a long way from the 1929-1933 period of the Great Depression, or even from the 1937-1938.

[mainer]

23. She's not the only one. Bankers are saying it too.

Had a private chat with an international banker, who specializes in eastern Europe. He says it's going to be far worse than the great depression, and the pain will be much worse next year. But he also said it'll be a great time to scoop up bargains.

[LaPera]

24. It'll get much worse, wait until Obama takes office....

and sees the real truth of what Bush is hiding and is leaving behind for Obama & the democrats to deal with....much the same as the lies, misrepresenting the facts & seriousness of our economy when President Clinton's administration took over for Bush Sr.

The Clinton administration was blown away how much worse things were than they were told, and the then Bush administration stated publicly.

Republicans always do what they can get away with again & again, the republicans have no honor or scruples, they just blame someone else for their sick corporate policies, agenda's & ideology for the rich....Without a doubt little Bushie will leave even a much greater economic mess for Obama than BushCo is letting on publicly, (even though we think they told us the worst) they are just leaving the worst for Obama and laughing out it and trying to take as little blame as possible....blame it on the democrats!!

Be prepared for the worse, stay out & get out of debt and learn to live with less.

[Kansas Wyatt]

27. All Bush has done for the last 8 years is hide his destruction of the middle class.

It must be very bad if he cannot hide it anymore, because he wanted to go out with his FALSE legacy in place, so they could blame the next guy.

[Nederland]

25. Is Helen Thomas an economist? (nt)

[LaPera]

26. One must be an economist to see what incredibly bad shape this country is in? Just start

at our 10 trillion dollar plus national deficit and work your way down to everything the republicans have stolen and on to the deregulation bailouts for starters...and it's far worse than we the public are led to believe, as it ALWAYS is....you don't just pop out of this one in a year or two and say, all is great now, that wasn't so bad....it hasn't even nowhere near hit bottom....no matter how afraid, optimistic or obstinate one might be....just look at the conditions..... and then we'll find out much more, how much worse it really is, when Obama & the Dems takes office - for sure Bushco won't be leaving an unexpected rosier picture for the hated democrats.

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. You are wrong helen, but once we cross into one

that is technically correct, will be hard to deny

By the way... we just may if GNP continues to go down... but a recession and a depression are very technical, not just a gut feeling

That said, some areas of the country are closer to one than others

[GreenPartyVoter]

35. All I know is what I can see around me. Hubby is self-employed and calls

for computer repair jobs have dropped off for longer than I have ever seen during a dry spell. To me that says people are holding onto their money rather than hiring him. And of course, that winds up putting us in a bad way too.

[fascisthunter]

36. gotta love conservative economics...

they sure know an economy inside out, enough so they can screw for the rest of us, while making their pig friends happy.

[natrat]

39. recession,depression then die off-hopefully we stop short of the latter

[rucky]

43. Semantics.

If you're suffering, it's a depression. Lots of people are suffering.