It's official: U.S. is in recession

[Javaman]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27999557/

(I'm so glad that the behind the times news points out the obvious)

WASHINGTON - The economy fell into recession late last year, according to a panel of economists that is responsible for determining the dates of business cycles.

Monday's declaration by the panel of the National Bureau of Economic Research confirms what many private economists, lawmakers and members of the general public already have assumed and puts an official date on it: A U.S. recession began in December 2007.

That was the same month employment peaked, and the economy began shrinking in a downturn that has been exacerbated by the financial crisis that took hold of markets beginning in September.

[ColbertWatcher]

1. Kick and rec so we can discuss whose recession this is! Thank you for posting. n/t

[Kurt Remarque]

2. pretty anticlimactic

[spanone]

3. bu$h* spent the last year lying to america about our economy....'fundamentals are strong'

lying sob

[TahitiNut]

4. "Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity" (NBER)

Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity


The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November 28. The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.

Because a recession is a broad contraction of the economy, not confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity. The committee believes that domestic production and employment are the primary conceptual measures of economic activity.

The committee views the payroll employment measure, which is based on a large survey of employers, as the most reliable comprehensive estimate of employment. This series reached a peak in December 2007 and has declined every month since then.

The committee believes that the two most reliable comprehensive estimates of aggregate domestic production are normally the quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Product and the quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Income, both produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In concept, the two should be the same, because sales of products generate income for producers and workers equal to the value of the sales. However, because the measurement on the product and income sides proceeds somewhat independently, the two actual measures differ by a statistical discrepancy. The product-side estimates fell slightly in 2007Q4, rose slightly in 2008Q1, rose again in 2008Q2, and fell slightly in 2008Q3. The income-side estimates reached their peak in 2007Q3, fell slightly in 2007Q4 and 2008Q1, rose slightly in 2008Q2 to a level below its peak in 2007Q3, and fell again in 2008Q3. Thus, the currently available estimates of quarterly aggregate real domestic production do not speak clearly about the date of a peak in activity.

Other series considered by the committee—including real personal income less transfer payments, real manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade sales, industrial production, and employment estimates based on the household survey—all reached peaks between November 2007 and June 2008.

The committee determined that the decline in economic activity in 2008 met the standard for a recession, as set forth in the second paragraph of this document. All evidence other than the ambiguous movements of the quarterly product-side measure of domestic production confirmed that conclusion. Many of these indicators, including monthly data on the largest component of GDP, consumption, have declined sharply in recent months.

The committee’s primary role is to maintain a monthly chronology of the business cycle. For this purpose, the committee mainly relies on monthly indicators. It also considers quarterly indicators and maintains a quarterly chronology. In its deliberations, the committee relied on a number of monthly and quarterly economic indicators published by government agencies. The Appendix to this announcement lists these indicators and their sources. The Appendix also describes the calculations required to reproduce the series that the NBER committee examined in its deliberations.

(more)
http://wwwdev.nber.org/dec2008.html

[bdamomma]

5. they are finally catching up to what we have been saying.

and they have noticed this from Dec. 2007 are these people on the same planet.

[man4allcats]

6. Gee! Really?

I'm shocked, shocked!

[gratuitous]

7. See, the markets were reacting prospectively

The near sure ascension of Barack Obama to the presidency, discernable to the prescient consciousness of the free market as early as December 2007, caused the recession to begin at that time. Yes, it was a month before the Iowa caucuses and two months before the New Hampshire primary, but you underestimate the power of the market if you don't think they knew even then that Obama would take over the presidency in January 2009.

So, as we can all plainly see, this is the Obama Recession. Q.E.D.

I sincerely hope I don't have to post a sarcasm icon.