to be determined...

[kpete]

more:
http://crooksandliars.com/node/24348

[dysfunctional press]

1. 28+ months is my guesstimation...

for no particular reason- other than there's still no light from the other end of the tunnel.

[leftofthedial]

2. given the loss of manufacturing jobs in the US,

and since we no longer have significant capability to produce actual value in our economy,

I don't think this is a "recession" at all. I think this is a permanent correction downward to where a second-rate country's economy belongs. We can no longer compete with countries that actually produce things, so we need to move our economic expectations lower.

[HereSince1628]

3. Its all guesstimation and IMHO something of a parlor game

based on rules written by economists rather than the reality lived by common people.

So here is a parlor game...

Why is the entire US today like the Great Lakes region of the 1970's?

Because in the past 15-20 years the US has been guided toward post-industrial economy. The US as a whole is now in the position the Great Lakes region was in in the mid-70s--with insufficient manufacturing jobs to maintain itself. The "rust-belt" never really came out of the mid-70's recession.

I expect the rest of the world will recover faster from this recession than the US because a recovery is going to be built on job growth that is going to be associated with low-overhead manufacturing aimed at meeting the post-recession increase in demand. The center of global consumption is probably going to shift to those parts of the world where the jobs are providing incomes. Just like we saw in the US "The South" blossomed with factories moving to it in the 1970's, we will see the same thing in Asia.

[lpbk2713]

4. Given that Shit-for-Brains took a record budget surplus and turned it in to a record deficit ...

... when I consider how far the Asshole put us in debt, I really hate to think about it.