Latest Franken-Coleman projection: per Nate at 538.com

[hlthe2b]

not terrific, but not hopeless, either

Statistical Models Now Show Coleman as Slight Favorite

With in excess of 90 percent of Minnesota's votes now having been recounted, our statistical models now show Norm Coleman as the favorite to retain his senate seat, although with a high degree of uncertainty and without accounting the effects of potential rejected absentee ballots.


The basic process behind our projections is as follows: using precinct-level returns available from the Minnesota Secretary of State, we use regression analysis attempt to predict the number of ballots that a candidate has gained or lost in a given precinct based on the number of challenges issued by he and his opponent, and his share of the vote in the pre-recount stage of the process. Then, we set the number of challenges to zero in the regression equation, which ideally represents the state that occurs once all ballot challenges have been considered by the state's canvassing board in December.
--snip--
--snip--
In addition, the models do not consider the potential impact of rejected absentee ballots, which the Franken campaign is still attempting to get counted. If Franken is able to get such ballots counted -- and there is a strong chance that he will -- they will likely be worth a net of somewhere between 25 and 100 votes to him. In this eventuality, the race should probably be considered a toss-up.

-- Nate Silver at 12:58 PM

Read the rest: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/statistical-models-now-show-coleman-as.html

[Robbien]

1. What is he talking about. Franken is ahead by by over 4,200 votes at 93% recount

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

which looks good to me.

[hlthe2b]

4. Apples and Oranges... SOS tallies are incomplete and do not

include information that is available to both the newspaper projections, that of the campaigns, and that which Nate is using.


Unfortunately, the SOS current tallies are probably very misleading in terms of actual trends.

[snappyturtle]

6. That 93% recount is the number of precincts counted. The total

ballot count at the bottom of the page is 91. something%.

[WI_DEM]

9. those are incomplete votes--it's as if on election night and Coleman was ahead by that amount w/ 7%

still out.

[WI_DEM]

10. I fully expect Coleman to edge this one out.

[Hawkeye-X]

2. Is he guessing?

Looks like he's distracted on the today's runoff.

Apparently he didn't pay attention to the MN SoS website...

Hawkeye-X

[snappyturtle]

3. I can't believe that in such a close race absentee ballots aren't automatically counted.

Doesn't sound like MN to me. They need a run-off election.

[hlthe2b]

5. Referring to absentee ballots previously rejected...

Apparently there are about 1000 that were rejected in error (or at least a strong case can be made).

The canvassing board has refused to reconsider these.

[snappyturtle]

11. Don't know where my head is today....well, I'm listening to sirens

on fire trucks racing down the road....we're seventeen inches behind in rainfall this year and of course it's so-o dry and unfortunately very windy today! Anyway, I read that and for some reason it just didn't get into the right file folder! ha! Thanks for not calling me an idiot!

[hlthe2b]

12. I have "Monday Moments"....

Usually 7 days a week...;)

I'll wish you some prolonged, slow, drenching rains, sans lightening...

[snappyturtle]

27. Thanks for the rain 'dance'! Hopefully, we'll get some soon. The last

rain that I remember was only a half inch!

[Robbien]

7. Absentee ballots are counted. Rejected absentee ballots are not.

Right now Franken is not even allowed to see the rejected ballots and has to sue to see why they were rejected.

[sam sarrha]

8. probably rejected cause ReThuglicans counted them.. why else the secrecy/denials

[Hassin Bin Sober]

13. I don't see how one can use trends to gage the potential results of the....

.....rejected ballots.

Wouldn't you have to assume BOTH campaigns are equally treacherous?

I believe the Coleman campaign immediately began challenging obvious Franken votes in an effort to regain the upper hand in the court of public opinion and to keep the spread as high as possible.

On the other side, Franken was challenging mostly UNDER-VOTES in the beginning. In other words, not obvious Coleman votes.

While both sides have made frivolous challenges, Coleman's initial challenges affected Franken's total to a greater extent whereas Franken's challenges leaned more toward affecting the "no vote" totals. Of course, this was in the beginning and the recount has devolved in to a challenge arms race.

[hlthe2b]

14. That's why there is so much uncertainty in the mathematical

models... Hey, I think it is truly a toss-up, with a bit of a cynical nod to Coleman, only because I don't doubt there have been some "lost ballots" that would have favored Franken.

But, Franken has a pitbull of a lawyer, so if he fights hard enough (especially for those improperly excluded absentee ballots), it may well reveal Franken absolutely did win... Sort of ironic, really, given how much Al Franken dismissed all issues related to integrity of the vote and potential fraud in previous elections.


As an update, they are reporting just what I was about to post-- some small community has just now come up with 200 UNCOUNTED votes.... hmmmm

[Hassin Bin Sober]

19. Franken picks up 37 from those "found" votes.

I thought I read somewhere the Franken campaign thought they were down by only 73? according to third party analysis of the contested ballots.

This is huge.

[hlthe2b]

22. Actually, earlier today the campaign said they were down by 50

THis would put them at a 13 vote difference!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HUGE, indeed!

[Hassin Bin Sober]

28. I know I'm a petty person but I SO want to see O'Lielly's head explode.

[hlthe2b]

29. Heh, heh... I'd pay to see that...

I wonder if Al would needle O'Rielly just a bit in his victory speech...:rofl:

[MiniMe]

15. Looks like they are reviewing the absentee ballots

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4573936&mesg_id=4573936

Huge implications

[hlthe2b]

16. Good that they are reviewing, but it is not clear they will count

them... Who decides about pile #5. It doesn't seem clear to me..

[MiniMe]

18. Sounds like they have set rules for the review.

They have 4 reasons for the ballot to be rejected. If it isn't one of those reasons, it will be counted. At least that is how I read it. At least it has progressed from "they won't consider them"

[Hassin Bin Sober]

25. The court will decide.

The canvasing board deliberately kicked that ball down the field as they didn't feel it was within their authority to demand the ballots be un-rejected. I never saw that as a set-back.

I can't see how the court can refuse counting illegally rejected ballots. If they do, then I would support the Senate intervening with an ultimatum - "Either you count them or we will."

[SidDithers]

17. 200 Uncounted Ballots Suddenly Found - Franken Race...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x406591
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/12/new_signs_that_recount_momentu.php

And an added bonus: Ramsey County officials say they've found about 200 ballots in the town of Maplewood, which Franken carried, that weren't counted at all up to now due to a machine breakdown, and were just discovered. Franken could conceivably get a net gain of one or two-dozen votes from these ballots. Franken's lead recount lawyer Marc Elias wasn't even aware of this going into the call -- he was informed of it by a local reporter seeking comment.

Fat lady ain't singing yet!

Sid

[MiniMe]

20. I hate to say it, but I don't trust ballots that are found this late

The election was 4 weeks ago, where have they been all this time? If they are legitimate ballots they should be counted, but I would label it as suspicious this long after the election.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

23. The Franken campaign KNEW there were uncounted/missing ballots....

....stuck in machines yet the county officials refused to look for them or open sealed machines. In one case, they could see a ballot jammed in the machine but the officials refused to unlock it. The Secretary of State issued an order for the local officials to investigate missing ballots.

I just wish the election officials would treat these ballots like they were $20 dollar bills.

[MiniMe]

24. OK, that is a bit different.

If they were ballots stuck in machines, I take my discomfort back. It's the ones that have been totally missing and they just showed up that I worry about.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

26. in this particular case, it appears the ballots were run through the machine but never...

....registered as the machine was malfunctioning. The ballots were always secured with the other ballots but never registered.

The election officials neglected to pull the ballots out and re-run them. The "hand" recount is working.

It's not like they were found in the trunk of a car - like all the right-wing whiners will scream bloody murder about - referring to the now discredited story of votes traveling around unsecured in a trunk.

[MiniMe]

30. As long as the history is known, they are good in my book

Thanks for the info. I really wasn't try to pin my suspicions on anybody, although Normie would do anything to win, but knowing where they came from makes all the difference in the world. :hi:

[Hassin Bin Sober]

21. The Star Trib says he nets 37 from 171 missing/found votes.

Subtract that from the 73 the campaign estimates they are down by a third party analysis of the frivolous challenge pile and we should be in business.