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InternalDialogue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-08 08:07 PM
Original message
The Detroit Outsider
The writer here is someone I know, and his info about how the foreign transplants don't want any of the Big 3 to fail was the first I'd heard the comment specifically. I know the states who host transplant operations seem to be forcing a harder line on the bailout, but if their efforts to bolster their home-state industries result in a national dive because of supplier problems, they're shooting themselves in the foot.


To follow my arguments, you’ll need to understand, or at least entertain, the following predicates.

A. There are no good options.

If you keep thinking of this as a question of saving a company or two, or even of saving some jobs, you’re missing the whole point. On their merits, GM and Chrysler might not be worth saving, and Ford is only a step or two behind. They need taxpayer money because they can’t get private capital. Frozen credit plays a part, but the main problem is they’re just a bad investment in their current state and the state of our economy. As for the jobs argument, people will lose jobs, bankruptcy or not. The difference is how many, how quickly, under what circumstances and what the consequences will be. To understand our predicament, you must accept that, economically, we’re fucked. But that doesn’t mean we should throw our hands up and look the other way. We can still influence how fucked we are, and how we are fucked. Take politics for example. If you believe politicians are all crooks, The Detroit Outsider might not argue, but some are still better than others.

B. GM and Chrysler failure is imminent and would devastate the economy

The nightmare scenarios aren’t hyperbole. The supplier base will fall, affecting all auto manufacturing in the States, including foreign transplants. Scores of people will be out of work, possibly sans severance. Money will stop flowing. We lost more than a half million jobs in November, and already people and companies are hoarding cash, concerned that they’ll be next or, as someone recently told me, because it would feel wrong spending money when so many others can’t. You see how this can get out of control? We’ve proven that we can spend our way into trouble, but we can also cause problems through not spending. The D.O. isn’t an economist, but he knows GM’s presence across the country—locally, regionally and nationally—as well as globally. More than anything, I was convinced of the direness of circumstances when people from foreign transplant car companies intimated that they don’t want to see the domestics fail and bring down the supplier base. All it takes is one major part or subsystem to disappear and the lines grind to a halt. Where the transplants have been in this plea is a good question. They officially have no opinion on the matter, and for competitive reasons that makes some sense. Their shareholders probably don't want them standing up for the competition, for example. But it speaks volumes that the companies best positioned to benefit from their competitors’ fall don’t want to see it happen.

http://detroitoutsider.blogspot.com/2008/12/detroit-outsider-didnt-want-to-do-this.html


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DJ13 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-08 08:10 PM
Response to Original message
1. When the Senate voted down the loans last night
the Asian automakers were in the midst of their Friday trading in Japan and Shanghi.

Their stocks immediately fell by 10% to 12% in minutes.

Imagine what would happen to them if the Big3 went bankrupt?
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ben_meyers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-08 09:01 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. What would happen if they did go bankrupt?
If The big 3 were to file chapt. 11 and reorganize under court order they might emerge as more competitive businesses. They would shed their union contracts and legacy costs and where would that leave the foreign car makers?

Look at Toyota and GM's 2007 numbers for example. They both sold about 9.5 million vehicles, but while GM lost 38 billion dollars, Toyota showed a profit of 18 billion.

If I was Toyota, Honda or Nissan I would be worried too. The American car makers are not going to disappear and they may come back stronger than ever after 40 years of decline.
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BeatleBoot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-08 08:13 PM
Response to Original message
2. The Detroit Insider
Edited on Fri Dec-12-08 08:19 PM by BeatleBoot
Your friend hit the nail on the head.

Every supplier out there has a sales mix between Domestic and Foreign auto makers.

Toyotas and Hondas rely on those suppliers as much as the Big Three.

If you are a Toyota and your trimplate supplier is dependent on GM (ie the suppliers biggest contract), then if that supplier goes out of business, then Toyota is out of a supplier as well.

And its not like suppliers are inter-changeable. Each make niche products.

To adapt and change in this industry costs millions of dollars. It is capital intensive requiring money up front to tool up with revenue stream down the road of the product life cycle when product is sold.

In other words, payback on the supplier investment takes years.

The supplier-OEM/OEM- supplier relationship is symbiotic and southern Republicans don't want to understand (i.e. they are fucking retards).






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