Predictions 2009

[SpiralHawk]

Gerald Herbert - AP
"As a new year approaches, it is customary for journalists to make predictions about the future. This time around, CNBC.com has a collection of prognostications from CNBC bloggers on a special page: Predictions '09."

http://www.cnbc.com//id/28392900

[SpiralHawk]

1. Intuitive predictions for 2009

This is interesting...

"Massive shift. Massive changes. No road map. But there are paths. This is what they said.

"They observed that North American culture and ways of life would experience high stress in the year ahead, perhaps more stress than the country has ever been through, citing the American Revolution, the Civil War and the Great Depression.

“We have to change,” they said. “Everyone knows it, but no one yet knows what will replace it.”

(snip) http://www.chiron-communications.com/blog.html

[tekisui]

2. knr!

Acceptance of Changes. Be well, everyone.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

3. I can say with certainty that 2009 will lead to

2010. Not a doubt in my mind. :)

[Dover]

4. 10 predictions from a goldbug

Ten Predictions for 2009

I don’t have a crystal ball, but my forecasts have been fairly accurate and quite profitable over the past few years. While 2008 has been a tough year, all signs point to 2009 being much worse. Here is what I see on the horizon for the upcoming year.

1) The stock market decline will accelerate in 2009, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipping below 6,000. Extreme volatility will engulf the markets with plenty of counter-trend rallies that will be fueled by speculators “calling the bottom,” only to find a new bottom the following month.

2) Unemployment will rise dramatically as “official” statistics reach towards 10% and true unemployment rises closer to 20%.

3) Real estate prices will continue to drop as rates reset and foreclosures increase across the country. Commercial real estate will finally follow residential, as price declines accelerate due to foreclosures on shopping malls, retail outlets, office buildings, etc.

4) Bailouts will continue, with more industries lining up for government rescue packages and both the financial and auto industries returning to the trough for more of their fix. This will lead to prediction #5.

5) Deflation will subdue and the first signs of hyperinflation will appear in the back half of 2009 as the trillions in bailout dollars begin to flow into the economy. The price declines that are a result of liquidation and de-leveraging, will give way to skyrocketing prices as politicians continue trying to print and borrow our way out of bad times. This will lead to prediction #6.

6) The dollar will resume its downtrend and make new lows during the first half of 2009. This will continue throughout the year with the dollar reaching into the low 60’s as the world loses confidence in the U.S. currency and the U.S. government’s ability to repay its debt.

7) Oil will rise from current lows and find a “fair price” somewhere in the $75 - $100 range, where it will float for much of the year. This will benefit alternative energy companies, although any gains will be muted by credit contraction and the overall market decline.

8) Agriculture prices will return to an uptrend as declining investment and unpredictable weather patterns lead to supply shortages amidst an ever-expanding population and increase in inflation.

9) Gold will make a new all-time (nominal) high reaching a price of $1,400 or more during 2009. A panicked flight to safety could push gold towards $2,000, although the central banks will dump gold on the market or make other attempts at suppressing the price advance.

10) All of the above will lead to increased crime and civil unrest with protests in the streets, bank runs and an increased police and military presence trying to bring stability to cities.

I wish that my predictions were a bit more uplifting, but we are truly in dire straits with conditions only continuing to worsen. The United States is essentially bankrupt and running on borrowed money and borrowed time. Many Americans will be facing severe financial hardship for the first time in their lives.

The silver lining is that these conditions are necessary to shake our apathy, demand better from our government, our community and ourselves. It is tough medicine, but is a necessary prescription that will force the change that is needed in this country and the world. We have to hit rock bottom, feel hardship, liquidate excesses and rampant corruption from the system, restructure our government, economy and entire social system. It is not going to be a pleasant undertaking but I am optimistic that we will emerge with a much better world and way of life.

In the meantime, you should be doing everything you can to stay informed, protect your assets and prepare for the transition ahead. I caution my readers not to be suckered into so called “buying opportunities” as we are nowhere near the bottom and I don’t anticipate conditions will improve for at least another 3-5 years. If you want to know the specific investments that I am making and receive my monthly newsletter, consider the premium subscription service.

Those with metaphysical inclinations may also be interested to know that the 3-5 year time horizon forecasts that we reach a bottom somewhere around the year 2012. Dec 21st of 2012 is the end of the long count of the Mayan calendar which started 5,125 years ago and coincides with the first time in approximately 26,000 years that the Sun will rise to conjunct the intersection of the Milky Way (eye, heart, center) and the ecliptic plane. According to the ancient Maya, this date will mark the end of one world as we know it and the beginning of another. No matter your beliefs, we are in for a period of significant change that will require reflection, adjustment and adaptation to a very different world that awaits.

www.goldstockbull.com


Jason Hamlin
Gold Stock Bull

[SheilaT]

5. I'm not an expert in gold,

but I did not know that central banks owned gold. Our currency has not been backed by gold since, what, 1933? I will say that I've been reading such predictions of gold going through the roof for thirty years or more, and it makes me yawn.

[Dover]

8. Hmmm...well it's been going up steadily for at least a decade and went to 1000 this year.

And that makes you yawn?

Okie doke... :eyes:

[SheilaT]

17. Because it has not been going up

steadily for a decade. It goes up and down. Here's a thirty year chart of the price of gold:



It looks like gold was under $400/oz in 1995, having peaked at under $700/oz in 1980 and again in 1981. At the end of the nineties it drifted around at under $300/oz and started going up in about 2002. Here's a link to five year, ten year, six month, sixty day, and thirty day gold prices.
http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html#5_year_gold_price
And yes, while gold did briefly top a thousand dollars an ounce in early '08, the real problem with it is that it's highly illiquid. For years now doom and gloom prophets have been advising everyone to buy gold, as if we are all suddenly going to revert to using only gold for cash.

For investment, I'd suggest owning gold mine stock. Many years ago I did just that and doubled my money in about six months. The amount of money wasn't much, but it was fun and profitable.

I do like gold in jewelry, and invest, er, buy as much as I can. :)

[Dover]

19. I said that at least in the last decade it's gone steadily up.

So looking from about '98 to '08, if you invested in gold you did REALLY well.
Invested, as in bought low at the nadir and sold high. A very good return I'd say.
And if one didn't sell, it's still holding its value pretty well.

Regarding this economy, we're not in Kansas anymore.
We are in completely new territory than we've been before, so old ways of thinking
about these things, and old formulas are not reliable imo.

Whether to rely on gold as currency is one of those questions that can't be answered as
we don't know what the future holds for the dollar. But if the dollar hits rock bottom
or is abandoned then it does make sense that gold might become currency at least temporarily,
as might some other commodities. But it's all guesswork unless you know something the rest of us don't. Choose your poison.

I wonder what you find more reliable in this economic environment?

[SheilaT]

22. What I find reliable is to have no debt

and to have some sort of income that can cover my expenses.

I simply don't agree with the apocalyptic scenarios of the entire economy collapsing and everyone needing to head to the hills and be totally self-sufficient. I've seen these predictions over and over again my entire life time, and I just don't find them credible.

[Dover]

23. You seem to be having some totally different conversation than I'm having

regarding gold as a safe haven (reliable investment) given the reality of this current climate over the last decade and looking forward. I don't recall mentioning doom and gloom scenarios. Only an observation that we are in unknown territory with a declining dollar. I said gold has gone steadily up over the last decade and was a VERY good investment having more than tripled its value.

You said, "... it has not been going up steadily for a decade", which your own chart does not
support. If you look at a chart for the last decade ('98 - '08) it has indeed 'gone through the roof'.

You seem stuck in 'old circular thinking' and are confusing the extremist, survivalist meme with practical, on-the-ground economic reality regarding gold. In other words, survivalist goldbugs are not the only ones who see the value in gold investments in the current economic climate.

Even traditional investment firms are recommending precious metals, and gold in particular, in all its forms as a safe haven for a larger percentage of one's portfolio than in the past. Of course there is always guess work with any investment about what the future's impact will be, however many mainstream economists are suggesting that we will see a serious decline in the value of the dollar over an indeterimant time frame. So you can believe them or not. Many of them were late to the party when it comes to gold because they were thinking inside the box, but even at this late stage it is probably not a bad investment given the prospects for the dollar in our immediate future (the next decade), imo.

Will gold continue to rise along with some other commodities? Or will the dollar rise again?
Your call. In the end we stick with whatever reality works for us.

[SpiralHawk]

6. "US is essentially bankrupt." That is the BushCo Republicon legacy

in a nutshell.

The republicons have flushed America's economy, environment, schools, military, and honor down down down their Wide-Stance Greed-Hypocrisy-Corruption-and-Incompetence Crapper.

[Kip Humphrey]

7. Excepting for one blind spot & minor differences in some numbers, these match my 2009 predictions...

IMO, Dow and Gold prices prediction are too high. I think Jason Hamlin has a potential blind-spot: Obama. Assuming Obama survives the year, his impact could well ameliorate most (if not all) of these predictions (my hope). That said, I've been preparing for these eventualities for several years now and sincerely hope they do NOT materialize.

[blue_onyx]

9. One thing is for sure, unemployment will continue to go up.

I believe unemployment will be between 10-15% nationally and at least 20-25% in some states, like Michigan.

I think we'll see a number of retailers announce closing in the first few months of 2009, as they can't survive after the poor holiday season. I could see Circuit City, Kmart, TJ Maxx, and many others going under.

The auto industry will be very different by the end of 2009. GM will sell/kill at least three brands (which they have already announced). Chrysler will probably be sold. All the auto companies, including the foreign companies, will continue to hurt throughout the year.

By the end of 2009, the GOP will start their narrative that Obama made the recession worse and he is incompetent since he hasn't fixed the economy yet.

These things aren't so much predictions but things that will obviously happen. I'm already not looking forward to 2009.

[SpiralHawk]

10. Food prices are going up, too

The price hikes are in the pipeline -- despite the recent drop in oil prices -- and they will be coming soon to a shopping cart near you. All this another ugly consequence of Republiconomics.

[bigtree]

11. Predictions: Viagra

- Pentagon will be outed for enticing recruits with Viagra

- Big scandal surrounding clean-up of Cheney's undisclosed location (dead hookers and huge stash of Viagra and assault rifles)

- All new Viagra will be discovered to be a placebo; actually bull urine.

[SpiralHawk]

12. Meanwhile the petrochemical-mutant GMO diet is causing penis shrinkage and sperm decline

in mammals of all persuasions -- including human beings. The chemical corp response: more chemicals (viagra, cialis).

What's wrong with this picture?

[roamer65]

13. Worldwide hyperinflationary depression, all thanks to the Moron.

Competitive currency devaluations, massive currency creation and deficit spending will take us right into a hyperinflationary depression by years end 2009.

[SpiralHawk]

14. ...thanks to the AWOL Moron Preppy & his fatcat republicon cronies

...who no doubt, since they consider themselves the republicon 'elite' have Swiss Bank Accounts to play with while they watch the citizens of the USA struggle against the economic SHIT STORM republicon 'conservative' policies & corrupt practices have caused...

[book_worm]

15. Prediction: Obama approval rating drops below 50% by end of year

not because he isn't being a good president but because things are going to get worse before they get better and people will always blame the president in office rather than go back and blame the president (Bush) who brought us to this place.

[blue_onyx]

16. I think this is likely too

In Michigan, our economy went down several years before our current Governor took office. The previous Republican Governor and congressional Republicans who controlled both parts of our state Congress for over a decade, made such a mess, that our state still hasn't recovered. And yet, our current Governor gets a lot of blame because she hasn't cleaned up their mess quickly enough. I could see a similar situation going on with Obama.

[Fire1]

18. So True! Jenny has caught the brunt of our downward spiral.

[unblock]

20. simple prediction: the s&p500 will end HIGHER than it began 2009.

the ride will not be pretty, not for the faint of heart, but buy and hold will work in 2009.
predicting where things will be 6 months from now is anyone's guess, and lower is as good a guess as any. but a full year from now it seems a no-brainer that it will be higher. we're already in one of the longest contractions on record, and unless we somehow pull out of it by april (not!) it will be the longest since 1929-1933.

remember that the market tends to start booming 6 months BEFORE the the end of a recession, so if a stock market boom hasn't begun by late 2009, this will be an EXTREMELY long recession. not that that's out of the question, but given the TRILLIONS the federal government has thrown at the problem, it seems rather improbable.

[Festivito]

21. Caught between being helpful in case of worst, or not.

Extra bailout will not happen. 350B$
...good!
..under McCain bailout happens, depression continues for until '10
A lot on information will be missing or will continue to be hidden from US.
..yawn.
under McCain: ignored.
Iraq war will end sooner while suggestions of longer fill the airwaves.
...good.
war dwindles, presence remains, costs continue, deaths continue
Debt will rise steadily for one to three years. Then tail slowly, even, then lowering.
...need a stiff upper lip.
Debt rises, although there is some talk.
Republicans will say that they would have done it better and sooner. No one believes them but they keep talking.
...aaaargh!
Republicans do it badly, take longer, tell us they did it well.

Economy for working people will rebound by Mar '09. Statistics will continue to look bad as money from Cayman Islands continues to enter our economy playing havoc with our currency on the world market. Many stores will close. No applications being taken signs will leave windows by summer.
...mixed emotions
Bad level stabilizes, we get used to closings and no jobs.

Attempt to curtail influx of money from Caymans will fail in Congress because of campaign run by conservative thieves claiming Dems are Communists.
...I'm not fooled, too many are.
Economy fluctuates, credit taken at every rise, nothing printed at every fall.
Influx of money will cause markets to fluctuate like a runaway roller-coaster. Health care will be threatened by the market rises and falls. It will pass in the end but with lots of anger and too many compromises.
...at least it passes.
Millions lose health care. Only certain areas retain good hospitals. Fewer doctors. More cuts.

Dollar drops. Retirees have trouble. Need to up Social Security. Arguments of no money. Obama prevails, but not with a lot.
...good enough.
SS is upped enough to say they raised it. People die en masse during winters. No reports reach media.

All in all, I'm guessing it will look bad and not be too awful compared to what it would have been under McCain.
We will become adjusted to the dying and the lack of caring.


Highlight the above to see predictions with McCain.