Republican Congresspeople who might be vulnerable in 2010

[hfojvt]

I have been hearing on the news that Congressional Republicans are all from safe districts and so they can feel safe in opposing Obama. That didn't ring true to me, so I did some checking to see who might be vulnerable and how vulnerable they are. Of course, there are also Congressional Democrats with the same levels of vulnerability, but the Republicans can figure out who they are themselves.

Level 1 most vulnerable, less than 5% victory margin

Ca 04 - 50-50
Ca 44 - 52-48
La 02 - 49-47
La 04 - 48-48
Mn 06 - 46-44
Mo 09 - 50-47
Ne 02 - 52-48
Pa 06 - 52-48
SC 01 - 52-48
Wa 08 - 52-48

There's 10 who should be most vulnerable and most amenable to working with Obama and Democrats. However, it should go without saying, that I have not lived in most of those districts and so the numbers may not be a true measure of actual vulnerability. Mn 06 for example, was supposed to be a cakewalk until Bachmann got on Hardball and made an a$$ of herself. Will that still be remembered in 2010? Feel free to tell me about the districts you have inside knowledge of.

level 2 slightly less vulnerable, less than 10% victory margin

Al 03 - 53-47
AK 01 - 50-45
Ca 02 - 52-43
Ca 03 - 50-44
Ca 50 - 50-45
Fl 25 - 53-47
IL 10 - 55-45
IL 13 - 53-44
Ks 02 - 51-46 *
Ky 02 - 53-47
La 06 - 48-40
Mi 11 - 51-45
Mn 03 - 48-41
Oh 02 - 45-37
SC 02 - 54-46

* denotes a Democratic incumbent defeated unfortunately in my own district. Still there are 15 more who are fairly vulnerable.

Level 3 - a long shot, but still doable in theory, less than 20% victory margin

Az 03 - 54-42
Ca 24 - 58-42
Ca 25 - 58-42
Ca 26 - 53-40
Ca 45 - 57-43
Ca 46 - 53-43
Ca 48 - 56-40
Fl 12 - 58-42
Fl 13 - 55-38
Fl 15 - 53-42
Fl 18 - 58-42
Fl 21 - 58-42
IL 06 - 58-42
In 03 - 55-40
Mi 08 - 57-40
Mn 02 - 57-43
Nv 02 - 52-41
NJ 05 - 56-42
NJ 07 - 51-41
NY 26 - 55-40
NC 05 - 58-42
NC 10 - 58-42
Oh 07 - 58-42
Oh 12 - 55-42
Pa 15 - 59-41
Pa 16 - 56-39
Tx 07 - 56-42
Tx 10 - 54-43
Tx 22 - 53-45 *
Tx 24 - 56-41
Tx 32 - 57-41

There's 32 more with at least some vulnerability. That's a total of 57 out of 178 who should be hearing from the Democrats in their district.

[williesgirl]

1. We need to get Cantor the hell out of VA. Thanks for the work on this. rec'd

[hfojvt]

11. Thanks. It did take a little time

but I was curious, and it is nice to see a fair amount of vulnerability, or possibility of actual democracy. Unlike Arkansas, where all four of their Congresspeople ran unopposed. That was true in about a dozen districts, many of them held by Democrats. Not to mention districts like Pelosi's where she won about 72-10.

[Blue_In_AK]

2. Don Young from Alaska is very vulnerable,

if he even makes it to 2010. I'm sure he feels the investigatory noose tightening.

[hfojvt]

4. I thought that was noteworthy

even with Palin on the ticket, which should have helped (sorta), he still only managed 50% of the vote. Still, the missing 5% probably went to a 3 party that's further to the right. If Young gets beaten in a primary, or indicted, would that Republican be vulnerable? In Kansas, we sorta had bad luck in that the incumbent Republican lost a primary by a nose. If only he had won, we might still have a Democrat in that seat. Maybe not though, because McCain took our district pretty handily.

[Blue_In_AK]

9. I honestly don't know which Republicans are interested in his seat.

No one has run against him in the Republican primary for a long time.

Here's how that race broke down here:

US REPRESENTATIVE
Total Votes 316978
Berkowitz, Ethan A. DEM 142560 44.97%
Wright, Don R. AI 14274 4.50%
Young, Don E. REP 158939 50.14%
Write-in Votes 1205 0.38%

So as you suspected, it was the Alaska Independence party guy who made the difference -- although I will say that I and several people I know were in the write-in category because we were less than impressed with Ethan Berkowitz.

As for whether another Republican would be vulnerable, of course, it would depend on who it is, but they don't seem to have any stand-out leaders here in the state at the present time - excluding Governor Snowflake, of course, but she's got her eyes on bigger things.

[tcfrogs]

3. Steve King in Iowa needs to go

Although it is more likely in 2012 after re-districting (Iowa will lose one congressional seat).

[hfojvt]

6. Where is King? (although I could look it up)

I used to live in Iowa. I thought it was a bummer that Gore won our county about 60-40, but at the same time Nussle also won it 60-40.

[tcfrogs]

7. 5th District, Western Iowa n/t

[bain_sidhe]

5. MI-11 Thad McCotter

Oh, hell yeah. His opponent got NO support from either the state or national party, never advertised, only sent out one piece of literature. We coulda taken McCotter THIS time, with just a little help. Made me mad, it did, to be so ignored for a couple of much less likely contests.

*edited to add:

I couldn't even remember the guy's name, till I looked it up on my bookmarks. Larkin.

[hfojvt]

8. that happened here in 2002

I called the Democratic candidate "the invisible man". Some of that, though, comes from the candidate's own ability to raise money, unfortunately. That's why people got motivated about Boyda, she was able to raise more money and to bring staff to my area and thus organize more volunteers such as myself (even though we still lost about 56-40 in 2004)

[LibDemAlways]

10. In CA 24 vile repuke Elton Gallegly's

margins of victory have been falling, but he's still well over 50% and many of the morons here in Ventura County apparently voted for the change that Obama represented, and then turned around and voted to return the corrupt old windbag to Congress. Obama took the county 55 to 42, so there was no excuse for the Gallegly win other than that the Dems can't seem to find and get behind a strong Congressional candidate. It's a damn shame.

[hfojvt]

12. that's a district where we should use some coattails in 2010

and there must be others. If Obama is popular in 2010, he and Biden should be campaigning in districts like that. Lord knows, Bush and Cheney used Airforce1 and airforce2 as personal campaign jets. Of course, I think that may have backfired some when Cheney visited my district in 2006 at the nadir of his popularity. Their five term incumbent lost.