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Edited on Sat Feb-28-09 08:56 PM by JackRiddler
He'll tell you the story. He writes for Independent/Guardian and has had a great deal of in-depth stuff published in his brother's newsletter, Counterpunch.
Hostilities have subsided for three reasons:
1) Shi'ite ethnic cleansing of the Sunni has largely concluded. 1a) As you say, two to four million refugees no longer live in Iraq.
2) Iranian intervention to calm tensions between competing Shi'ite factions (Moqtada's army vs. Badr Brigades in the interior ministry). 2a) Iran is now the primary foreign political influence in the US.
3) Under pressure Sunni insurgency turned to the US for protection and accepted the real "surge" - of American cash to hire them "against" "al-Qaeda."
4) The government has signed the SoF agreement which spells the end of US occupation. Also, the Exxon-Mobil-Chevron plunder contract has been indefinitely delayed. So the Bush regime's objectives of gaining control over oil profits have failed and the Iraqis are now fairly secure that they're going to see the American invaders finally get the hell out after all.
In addition, I would guess:
"Al-Qaeda" was an intel front group to split the Iraqi resistance by setting off the senseless wave of bombings of civilian targets that invited the Shi'ite reaction, and that delivered all those who made the mistake of associating with it into the hands of the US and the Iraqi government forces.
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