The government has got to be suppressing the real unemployment rates

[Sarah Ibarruri]

I mean, I think the govt. has always done this, play with the unemployment rates to make it seem better. But right now I'm guessing the unemployment must've already hit the same numbers as the numbers in the Great Depression. The problem is that we now live in sprawl and are not concentrated, so we don't really see the hunger, homelessness, joblessness and desperation.

The GOP finally did it this time. I'm so angry I can't even describe it. How could we let them be in control for so long, knowing that they always take measures to destroy the middle class and our country?

:cry:

[vaberella]

1. I don't know. But we can't focus on that now WE're in charge.

We need to make moves and get people back to work and fix their shit and make sure those arses never ever ever get back in power.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

5. So true. I'm one of the ones that lost her job. Did I mention I HATE Repugs? nt

[lutherj]

2. Reagan changed the way unemployment numbers were calculated.

(He also changed the way GDP and inflation are calculated.) Kevin Philips, among others, has written about this. You're right, if you calculate the unemployment by the old method, the current unemployment rate is about 14%.

Link: http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090206/REG/902069980/-1/FWDailyAlert01

In addition, many construction workers employed during the housing boom were self-employed. The self-employed don't qualify for unemployment benefits, and thus don't show up in the unemployment numbers. Also, the long term unemployed, who simply give up and drop out of the market all together, don't show up in the calculation.

It's estimated that at the worst of the Great Depression, the unemployment rate was about 25%. I don't think we're there yet, but frankly I don't see anything that will stop the current slide. It's just my opinion, but I think we could well reach an unofficial 25% in the next 12 months.

[seabeyond]

4. then bush again changed it during his term..... n/t

[Sarah Ibarruri]

6. Thanks for the link!

I think we're very close to 25 in my area of the country.

[Kip Humphrey]

12. Another good source for ground truth economic stats...

from: http://www.shadowstats.com/
Not just unemployment tracked here.

I've been visiting John William's site for years which is why we got out of the stock market in July 2007 (13,127 DOW), moved into European bonds as a play against the then declining dollar (42% return), and are now heavily invested in gemstones (+252% so far). We began preparing for the worst in 2006 (eliminating debt, reducing lifestyle needs, etc.).

[Doremus]

23. U-6 for Feb. was 14.8% (Jan. was 13.9%)

Up 1% in a month. WTH will it be by the end of the year?!

[hfojvt]

3. you are guessing and then getting angry about your guesses

I think that "don't panic" is sound advice. The country has survived four Republican Presidents even in my lifetime. We will survive a fifth.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

7. Oh I'm not complaining about Obama. I"m just hating Repukes more and more and more

I'm beyond angry at the GOP.

[defendandprotect]

8. I'm sure we're close to 25% if they resumed original ways of assessing ...

unemployment ---

They used to count all of the military -- and everyone collecting unemployment ---

but now they cut people off after a rather short period of time.

So -- those still unemployed long term and those working part time who want full

time postions aren't counted. The GOP made a lot of changes to unemployment statistics.

Also, they didn't want dots connected to the trade agreements!!!

[Sarah Ibarruri]

15. You're right. Politicians KNEW the trade agreements would KILL our jobs nt

[AdHocSolver]

9. The jobs problem will only be solved when trade and tax laws are rewritten so that it is no longer..

profitable to export jobs to Asia and other low wage countries.

The economy is just the flow of goods, services, and money. The main problem with our economy is that every time we make a purchase, the money we spend goes not to other Americans who made those goods, but to Asia after the corporations take their profits.

This economy will not recover until NAFTA, the WTO, the IMF, the World Bank, and all those other corporate cartel agreements are eliminated so that American companies who want to manufacture here in America with American labor the everyday goods that we buy will be able to do so.

Saying that the collapsing stock market or the banks lacking liquidity is causing the economic downturn is utter nonsense. The problem is the outflow of capital to Asia. This country is unemployed and running up its debt with no way to pay its bills.

The term "free trade" bandied about as an excuse for offshoring jobs is just another meaningless term for "trickle-down economics". We do NOT have free trade. Trade is tightly controlled by international corporate cartels and their practices to increase their profits are what is destroying our economy.

The bailout of the banks will NOT help the economy. The problem is NOT a lack of liquidity. The problem is that every purchase we make sends more money to China. The Chinese economy is problematic because we are running out of money to buy their goods. The Chinese like the rest of the world has been buying the bad debt created by our crooked banks to prop up our buying their goods. Now that this Ponzi scheme has been exposed, the economies are collapsing.

The stimulus will NOT help long term unless the exporting of jobs is reversed. When a majority of the goods and services Americans buy are produced by Americans so that the money we spend circulates WITHIN the U.S., then the economy will recover on its own.

[pampango]

10. Ahhh, for the good ol' days when Mao kept a billion Chinese poor and isolated.

They exported and imported practically nothing and had little effect on the US or world economy. Over the last 30 years the Chinese have begun to act more like Americans and we yearn for Mao to return. China has 4 times our population and barely exports more than we do. On a per capita basis the US is a much bigger exporter than China.

You're right. There is no "free trade" even with FTA countries. The right uses the term because they think it sounds good and will help them sell policies that benefit them. The left uses the term, because the right does, and we oppose what they are trying to do, so we go along with using the same terminology that they do, even though it is inaccurate.

Certainly there is no "free trade" with most of our trading partners including China, India, and Europe. We have tariffs against them and they have tariffs against us. The tariffs have been lowered over the years, but they are still there. We agreed to let China, India and other Third World countries to have higher tariffs than the US, Canada and Europe to spur the development of poor countries. China is not as "poor" anymore and we should renegotiate our trade terms with them.

There is no reason for countries not to trade with each other. The rules of that trade need to be established to reflect not only the economic welfare of the people in different countries (not just corporations or other elites), but human rights and environmental goals. There needs to be an international body in which negotiations can take place and which can enforce these rules once they are established.

I wonder if England and Europe cast the US as a bogeyman when we industrialized and began to compete with them in markets that they had to themselves previously. China is not doing anything that Germany (the largest exporter in the world) isn't doing. They make stuff and sell stuff. China (and the rest of Asia) is not to be feared. They are not a bogeyman that has to be somehow eliminated for us to prosper. If we had national health care, strict regulation of our financial industry and a progressive tax system, among other things, we wouldn't be in this predicament. Those policies are within our control without blaming foreigners.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

16. You need to post this as an original post - any chance you will do that?

It pretty much explains everything the way it is.

[AdHocSolver]

18. I expanded and made an original post of this reply in GD.

Here is the link:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x5206638

[Sarah Ibarruri]

19. Thank you!! nt

[onenote]

11. if the government has always done this, then what were the real numbers during the Great Depression?

and doesn't that mean we're still far short of that level?

[Sarah Ibarruri]

17. I suspect that during the Great Depression were accurate because....

During the Great Depression there was no unemployment. It was all raw unemployment, with ribs sticking out, starvation, and all that stuff Republicans love to see happen.

Nowadays, we DO have unemployment which at least allows us to buy some food, BUT the govt., once it drops people from unemployment removes them from the unemployment data without reason other than to lie to the population and tell everyone we're doing great, when in truth, the jobs are all outside of this country. I don't quite know when that began to be done. Some people say Reagan? Not sure.

All products sold here should be made in the U.S.A. Anything that isn't should have a tariff imposed on it. I fought the trade agreements, I wasn't old enough during Reagan's deregulation of everything, but no one fought that, and in general people have been not fighting anything the Republicans have chosen to do that has caused this country to be on its last breath.

[defendandprotect]

20. Yes -- and this is large part of overturning of New Deal regulations . . .programs ---

but on my estimate of 25%, I just want to make clear that that's still no where near

what happened in the Great Depression because at that time entire families depended

on one male worker. Currently, almost every member of a family may be working.

And, sometimes, more than one job!

[Sarah Ibarruri]

21. You just gave me hope and you didn't even realize it - thank you! :-) nt

[conscious evolution]

13. They are lying like motherfuckers

Automated Data Processors,a company that process payrolls for a lot of employers announced that 691,000 lost jobs in Febuary. http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/
Keep in mind that ADP is only one of many companies that deal with payroll processing.Also keep in mind that there is also a lot of companys that do payroll processing in house.

The Labor Department,however,says only 650,000 people lost jobs in Febuary.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

If ONE company is saying there are more people loosing their jobs than the 'official' tallys you have to wonder what the real total is.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

14. Can you believe it? The govt. has been lying about unemployment for a long time apparently nt

[tritsofme]

22. Learn a little more about the Current Establishment Survey

http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesfaq.htm

It might do you some good.

[conscious evolution]

24. Anything in particular?-

[tritsofme]

28. ADP payroll survey is an interesting piece of data.

And it gives a pretty good picture of the employment situation in corporate America.

However it just isn't as comprehensive or as useful as the CES.

Marginal differences between the ADP survey and the CES don't indicate anything really, let alone any foul play on the part of the BLS.

From your comment, it didn't really seem like you knew what exactly the ADP and CES surveys are and what they hope to accomplish.

And I really do think if more people understood the BLS and how and why they collect data there would be many fewer threads such as this one popping out.

[roamer65]

25. Go to shadowstats.com

http://www.shadowstats.com

[deaniac21]

26. One in four unemployed? Give me a break.

[blues90]

27. I think you're right .

I think the government has always lied to the people in everyway they can.

Yes we live in areas more spread out and each area has it's own new found issues so everything is separate.

I have noticed that somehow there seems to be a way of hiding the homeless and the vets through all the wars. I see them here but not in great numbers.

I think this is deliberate so as not to panic people and to hind the real horrors and the real truth. Some people just block it out.

Anytime I've seen a vet or homeless person I know if I were drafted in 1967 I could have been a vet and everytime I see someone living on the street I know I could be there someday too. There is no way to predict the future as scarey as it is and as real as it is. I can't recall a time in my 60 years, well the part of it that I was aware of these issues, that these things did not trouble me and haunt me and beg me to question why is it this way.