UCLA Anderson weighs in on the economy

[ColbertWatcher]

Poll question: UCLA Anderson weighs in on the economy

Bernanke, the GOP-installed head of the Fed, has been saying that the economy will recover within a year. I have been suspicious of his predictions believing he is part of Rush Limbaugh's army of fail fetishists.

But, lo and behold! Today's LA Times finally gives me a reason to listen to the voices in my head: economists at UCLA's Anderson School of Management have come out with their forecast for the year ahead.

And it ain't pretty.

From the Los Angeles Times
THE ECONOMY
UCLA Anderson Forecast: dark days
California's jobless rate will hit 11.9% by mid-2010, the report says, but it notes that it's challenging to make predictions amid the current volatility.
By David Pierson
March 25, 2009

(excerpt)

Early last year, UCLA said the nation would suffer from tough economic conditions but would ultimately avert a recession. Leamer said that at the time, he did not believe consumer spending could tank the way it did in the latter part of 2008.

This time, the closely watched UCLA report does not hold back.

The researchers cite the unprecedented losses to U.S. balance sheets -- $9 trillion in stocks and $5.5 trillion in home values.

The financial crisis, they say, has swelled into such a global problem that national policy may be ineffectual. The United States needs its international trading partners to reverse their slowdowns and reignite the exchange of imports and exports.

(more)

--Los Angeles Times

Anderson predicts that "... the economy will likely lose 7.5 million jobs peak to trough and unemployment will soar." (emphasis added by me, from the same link)

Now my question: am I wrong in suspecting that Bernanke is trying at the very least to make Obama look bad at the worst undermine Obama's attempts at fixing the economy screwed over by the GOP?

[Fresh_Start]

1. there was a fairly recent study by the St Louis fed

that basically said that forecasts tend to be especially inaccurate going into recession.
There is systemic errors in underestimating how badly things will deteriorate.

They don't know and their forecast methologies are biased although not intentionally biased.

[ColbertWatcher]

2. Kick? n/t