Are we really willing to risk a war with North Korea?

[Hugabear]

Even if they're lying about the upcoming satellite launch and are preparing to test a long-range missile, is it really worth risking a WAR over? I know all about North Korea's financial woes, how their military is antiquated, etc etc etc. But the fact remains that they still have a HUGE military massed on the border with South Korea, within artillery range of Seoul, and their leadership isn't exactly the most sane. Yes, I'm confident that the US, along with South Korea and Japan, would eventually triumph - but at what cost. The casualties from a new war with North Korea would make the past several years in Iraq and Afghanistan look like a walk in the park by comparison.


Chances are, we could shoot down their missile and they would just scream bloody murder, but do nothing about it. But there's also the slight chance that they could decide to fight back. If Kim Jung Il knows that he won't be around much longer, who knows if he might decide to go out with a bang, so to speak. After all, his father is revered for his role in the Korean War, he may decide he needs to at least try to live up to his father's legacy.

This whole thing has me scared.

[Javaman]

1. Haven't you noticed a pattern yet?

they do this every spring.

they need food.

They have very hard winters with little farm land.

They feel, rather than being rational human beings, that they must try and blackmail the world into giving them wheat.

They will scream and threaten. They will get their wheat. They will shut up.

rince and repeat.

[PVnRT]

2. If North Korea (or Iran, for that matter) try and nuke anyone, they're done

Which is precisely why pre-emptive action isn't needed, and only makes things worse. Lil' Kim may be batfuck crazy, but his military isn't. They know exactly what will happen if they let fly with the nukes to Seoul and Tokyo.

[NeedleCast]

3. Relax, it's just sabre rattling

North Korea has a long history of this shit. They know better than to re-start a shooting war, because while they talk tough they know they would lose, and lose huge.

They'll launch their "satellite" and we'll impose new sanctions (probably). The North will get desperate for whatever it is we take away from them and the bully-state games will start all over again.

[Juche]

4. Teh oil revenues will pay for it

You forgot their special forces units. The ability to attack Seoul with artillery is a huge problem, but they also have a special forces unit with something like 100,000 soldiers who are trained to go to nearby countries and commit terrorism, assassinations, kidnappings, sabotage, etc. So you'd see some pretty bad effects from them too, esp if they were given suitcases full of chemical weapons to deploy in populated areas.

I really have no idea what to do about N. Korea. I feel bad for the people who live there, but I don't know what to do. Its like everyone who lives there is screwed anyway. The mismanagement, famine and brutality has left the entire country full of physical and mental illnesses so even if they had a new government they wouldn't be able to run it well. In S. Korea they are finding that many of the N. Korean refugees who moved there tend to be so sick with physical and mental illnesses, so emotionally traumatized, socially and educationally stunted that they really can't make it in S. Korea and risk being a permanent underclass.

Its almost like even if N. Korea did reform itself, it'd take 30 years for it to start being a normal country because you'd need an entire generation that was not brutalized and starved.


With regards to the missile launch, I honestly will not be surprised if the missile ends up blowing up on the launchpad or halfway up into the atmosphere. Happened with a missile test they did back in the late 90s (I think) and the nuclear weapon they tested back in 2006 was reported to have been a dud since it was less than 1 kiloton.