538's take on NY20

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

Because, when it comes to reading numbers and understanding trends, forget beltway hacks like Broder, Morris and Novak. Nate Silver is the most astute political mind out there:

"What this very narrow fragment of evidence suggests -- it may be dangerous to overgeneralize -- is that not much has changed since last November. The PVI of NY-20 based on the 2000 and 2004 elections is R+3; based on the 2004 and 2008 elections, it's more like R+2. That is, NY-20 is between two and three points more Republican than the average Congressional District."

...

"The status quo, in other words, was more or less preserved. But the status quo, of course, is a much happier place if you're a Democrat than if you're a Republican..."

more:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/what-ny-20-tie-means.html