It's About to Get Worse

[Stephanie]

Anecdotally this weekend I heard two stories that confirm to me that it's going to keep getting worse before it gets better. Saturday we went to Brooklyn to visit a friend with a new baby. Her husband, who works for a major bank, said he's been ordered to lay off about 1/3 of his staff next week, which means about eight people will lose their jobs. Tonight we had dinner at a friend's home, and one of the guests said that she's been ordered to cut her budget by a third, which means she's going to have to lay off about 25 people from her staff - they run a a group of websites owned by a major media company. That's 33 people who are going to be laid off next week, just among people I happened to to run into. And that's only for their groups, but it represents major layoffs at each company. There are no jobs to be found in NY and next week the market will be even more flooded.

[ShareTheWoods]

1. The entire state of NY is out of jobs?

If by chance you meant NYC then hopefully the cost of living there goes down. I don't see how anyone can survive
there without work.

[Stephanie]

2. Yes, NYC

And the cost of living keeps going up.

[Muttocracy]

3. unemployment is going up state-wide; statistics:

http://www.labor.state.ny.us/workforceindustrydata/pressreleases/pruistat.htm

[patrice]

4. KC, Mo. is getting ready to lay off a bunch of people.

[EFerrari]

5. That's what everyone I trust is saying, too.

Before this all went down, my mom and I were about to close a loan to develop our land. That was months ago. Meanwhile, this property we've been working on for years is about to go into foreclosure. Have to close the building loan now or never, I guess. This little window will slam shut soon.

[KittyWampus]

14. Good Luck!

[madrchsod]

6. my little corner of northern illinois is averaging 12% and climbing

it`s going to get worse...

[Stephanie]

8. It's the trickle down theory in action

First the bankers, then the lawyers who do deals for the bankers, now every company that relies on the bankers for advertising dollars or whatever else. It's really scary.

[smalll]

7. Oooh! Rich people at banks (or at "media companies" that "run websites") are losing their jobs!

Maybe your friends in Park Slope will have to spend less than five figures on a stroller for their newborn! Oh, the humanity! :nopity:

[Stephanie]

9. WTF is wrong with you?

You think everyone who works for a bank makes six figures? You don't think they employ secretaries and middle managers and cafeteria staff and mail room clerks? You're a major league jerk.

[smalll]

12. Yeah, the OP's banking friends are secretaries, and their "media company" friends

are cleaning ladies working the graveyard shift. :eyes:

Sorry. And I have little to no sympathy for the whinings of Park Slope. Let them eat brownstone.

[Stephanie]

13. It's my OP

And yes, some of the laid off will be administrative assistants, i.e. secretaries. My banking friend is the one who has to tell them. And we don't serve "browstone" here. Maybe where you come from.

[smalll]

15. (Sorry for the missing "n" -- thanks for catching it. n/t )

[Stephanie]

17. Then I guess I should point out the extra l.

And the missing empathy gene.

[Missy Vixen]

27. That empathy gene seems to be in short supply around here

Stephanie, I'm sorry to hear about your friends.

We've been going through it now for over five months. :scared:

[Starbucks Anarchist]

34. He's an asshole who can't see outside his tent of hate.

SOP for him.

[biopowertoday]

10. making fun of people losing their jobs makes you look look stupid.

[Bluebear]

11. You are a complete idiot.

[dixiegrrrrl]

16. Fortunately, I cannot see who you are talking to or what about.

Don'tcha love the "idiot ignore" feature?

[Stephanie]

18. Figures

I should have known he's a known offender.

[Skittles]

19. are you as stupid as I think you are?

or more stupid?

[Stephanie]

20. edit

sorry! :hi:

[Skittles]

21. you want I should kick your blooping ass, Miss Stephanie?

:hi:

[Stephanie]

22. Yes Ma'am!

We need more ass kicking around here.

[Skittles]

23. some pirate-enabling ass is the current whiff of the day

AYE MATEY!!! ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

[Stephanie]

24. Eggzackly

No translation required

http://www.fissio.com/pirate.pl

The pirate speaks,"kick their ass"

Would ye like t'try again?

English-to-Pirate translator

[northernlights]

30. the "rich" people aren't the ones losing their jobs

Get a clue. The people who do the actual work, and make the least money, are the ones about to be laid off.

The managers who lay them off will still have their jobs. For the moment.

[Flying Dream Blues]

35. You are a miserable excuse for a human being. nt

[Arugula Latte]

42. Boy, are you an asshole. nt

[GoesTo11]

25. Unfortunate data but not a trend - just consistent with current statistics

Count degrees of separation, and it's clear there are many many people in the universe that you are this connected to. While each person laid off suffers, the fact that you are hearing about them isn't surprising. Here's the relationship:
You - Friend - Husband - People he is laying off
You - friend - guest - people she is laying off

If you know a lot of people in middle-management just because of being upper middle class or something, it's not surprising if you know people involved in doing the layoffs, especially being in NYC which is ground zero for the financial crisis. Finally, you personally might still be observing a lot of layoff activity right now, but since some people are getting laid off every week, every week there will be someone who knows multiple people involved in layoffs - just statistics of coincidence, and so you are the person reporting it on DU.

Although there might be some sort of systematic bias in statistics, anecdotes have their own problems. Statistics are already saying 700,000 people per month are losing jobs, 5 million plus have lost jobs, and almost everyone knows people who have lost jobs.

We don't have to add to the panic.

[DeschutesRiver]

36. It is the rapid increase in numbers - our local county unemploy just hit 21%

That is a pretty big number, and that is just a U3, not a U6 number. It hasn't been anywhere near that for years and years.

It not how many people I know that are losing jobs, it is how many more than just a few years back and how fast the numbers are increasing that I find alarming. Whether a person should panic or not, I don't know - but seeing almost 21% as the official U3 number, knowing it isn't including everyone I know who has run out of extended unemployment benefits, plus the fact that every time we speak to anyone here, there is always one more family member without a job - well, everyone is up close and personal with the fact that this doesn't bode well.

I am starting to see a completely dead downtown, and neighbors all sitting home day after day while the foreclosure notices are posted. People with illnesses without jobs and health insurance. People in their 70s who still need a job because they've lost their retirement money and are about to lose their homes. When there are a few people in that situation, it isn't good but expected. When the numbers start to explode to the point where it is involving everyone on your street, it is reasonable to be scared for the immediate future prospects of folks you know.

[GoesTo11]

38. It's bad, you got that right.

But I don't see it going out of control at an ever-accelerating pace until we're all unemployed. Basically, if we had Herbert Hoover (or probably John McCain or George Bush) talking about how critical it is right now to balance the budget, then we'd go there. But instead, we've had an unprecedented stimulus act, with more coming. The stimulus spending has hardly hit at all yet, and I think that we know how to avoid another great depression -- even if we end up with a huge debt and stagflation coming out of it (which is bad, just not as bad).

[DeschutesRiver]

40. Probably be bad enough if we hit 50% in quite a few areas

Not as a national average, of course. I don't think either that we are going to 0% employment. But I am nowhere close to being as optimistic as you are regarding our ability to avoid another great depression.

There has been a lot of talk recently about the potential for having a "jobless recovery", where we again start growing, but the excess jobs that were lost just don't come back. Which I suppose makes sense, because we overbuilt everything and over used credit like it was a second job, and once that excess is properly flushed out of the system, there is no way for jobs that were part of the excess to come back in a slower, more normal economy. But that will leave us with quite a pile of permanently unemployed people, will it not?

The stimulus is helpful, I mean, if consumers and businesses are not spending, then the only one left standing to spend to keep the economy from going completely stagnant (from it would be very hard to restart things) is the government. But I don't see the stimulus as a guarantee; .gov is just using the consumer and businesses tax money to spend the money that they are too fearful to spend, and I'd think there is a definite point at which that no longer functions as a stimulus. And I think the cutoff point may be impossible to time properly.

This is a unprecedented event for me in my lifetime, just as it is for this .gov/administration. I am desperately hoping we get the solution right the first time, but I believe we are in totally uncharted waters. There is no outcome that would surprise me, well, maybe if we had this thing solved by the end of 2010 I'd be pleasantly shocked out of my gourd.

[SmileyRose]

26. I feel doubly bad for the college people

I'm not being sarcastic. Me and mine grew up with knowing we are merely peons easily expendable, quickly outsourced to protect the profits of the few at the top. We yelled and screamed and picketed as our factories were closed, wages were forced down and jobs were shipped off to whatever cheaper place the powers that be could find.


Me and mine have spent generations building an almost genetic mindset of being prepared for the next time we get drop kicked by those in charge. The hardships are immeasurable. But in all honestly, I think it's probably harder on the college folks.

[Liberal_in_LA]

28. wow.

[TheWatcher]

29. But....But.....The Stock Market is above 8000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111

Banks are having record profits because they "say so", so I fail to see the relevancy of "lagging indicators" like layoffs, especially in this small amount. Pfft. Merely a flesh wound.

The Greatest Recovery of All Time is happening before our eyes (based on nothing tangible in reality, but stop looking over there. LOOK AT THAT STOCK MARKET CHART! WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111111111) and all you want to do is be a "Debbie Downer".

Everything is Puppies and Rainbows and you just want to blow our high.

Just wait, six weeks from now, your friends will each have a pony in their yard and you'll look so stupid for posting this "feel bad" stuff.

:sarcasm:

Now, back in the world of REALITY, you are unfortunately correct. Things are about to get A LOT worse.

I feel for your friends, and I hope they make it through all of this. Yours is just one story of an unfortunate many. :(

People are about to find out that the only "recovery" that is happening is that the Criminals are going to "recover" their ability to keep their Ponzi Schemes going, at the expense of the rest of us, who will get to pay for it, and munch on cake.

And you can take THAT to the "Bank."

The Greatest Transfer Of Wealth of all time is happening, from the hands of the many, to the hands of the few.

That's not a recovery, that is a Robbery.

[northernlights]

31. What I don't get

(or maybe I do) is how on Sunday am pundit teevee, the pundits were saying unemployment will continue at current pace, possibly worsen. And *if* we reach double-digit unemployment next year, then we'll be in trouble. IF?!?!?

I mean, what freakin' universe do they live in?

"Official" unemployment is closing in on 9%.

Layoffs are at over 600,000/month...and worst case, accelerating; best case holding steady.

At this pace, more than 6,000,000 will be added to the rolls by next year.

What makes them think double-digit unemployment by next year is an *IF*?!?!

Are they really and truly that math-challenged? Never mind...probably just answered my own question.

[DFW]

32. My daughter is about to be laid off in Manhattan

She doesn't work for anything like the financial sector, but just got the word that
she, and 80% of the company she works for, is going be laid off in May. She had just
graduated number ONE in her class at her college in New York City, and in two weeks,
a whole new class graduates and will be looking for work in her field, or related ones.

This thing is affecting people in all sorts of fields, not just banks, and certainly
not just the six-figures-and-up crowd.

[Stephanie]

33. A friend of mine was just laid off as mgr of a chocolate shop in Soho

It's everywhere, everybody's affected. Trickle down.

What does your daughter do?

[leftchick]

37. here in NC it sucks big time

every week I hear of more and more layoffs. It is just shocking and to know we have no safety net if my husband is next is frightening.

[DemReadingDU]

39. sucks in Ohio too, n/t

[Blackhatjack]

41. Official Unemployment Numbers are a Joke --- It Is Much Worse Than That....

NC reports unemployment at or near 10%, but you can double that if you count those who quit lookiing for a job, used up all their unemployment benefits, are temps or contract workers at 10-15 hrs/wk, etc.

Just look at the job fairs, the numbers are huge --and oncampus recruiting is down in some cases more than 50%. Worst job market for graduating business finance majors in 70 years. Not only are the traditional employers not hiring, but the few jobs available these new job seekers have to compete with all the laid off finance workers who have years of experience.

When it comes to the State Govt hiring .... we already instituted a hiring freeze as we try to come to grips with a $2billion budget deficit.

Add to that devaluation of home prices, foreclosures flooding the market, and consumer credit lines cancelled and credit card rates raised to as much as 29%.

I just keep hoping we will see the bottom soon ....