Warning that Pakistan is in danger of collapse within months-173m people and 100 nuclear weapons

[seemslikeadream]

http://www.smh.com.au/world/warning-that-pakistan-is-in-danger-of-collapse-within-months-20090412-a40u.html

PAKISTAN could collapse within months, one of the more influential counter-insurgency voices in Washington says.

The warning comes as the US scrambles to redeploy its military forces and diplomats in an attempt to stem rising violence and anarchy in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

"We have to face the fact that if Pakistan collapses it will dwarf anything we have seen so far in whatever we're calling the war on terror now," said David Kilcullen, a former Australian Army officer who was a specialist adviser for the Bush administration and is now a consultant to the Obama White House.

"You just can't say that you're not going to worry about al-Qaeda taking control of Pakistan and its nukes," he said.

As the US implements a new strategy in Central Asia so comprehensive that some analysts now dub the cross-border conflict "Obama's war", Dr Kilcullen said time was running out for international efforts to pull both countries back from the brink.

[leveymg]

1. The Pakistani ISI and military are a divisive force, and themselves divided - disintegration?

The Pakistani military is an institution that's repeatedly taken power. Now, the security services are being pulled four ways: there's the pro-western faction; the Islamicist (Taliban) faction; the pro-Saudi Royal faction; the revanchist anti-India faction.

This is very dangerous. Almost too complex and explosive to predict.