If Toomey ran against Specter in the primaries - Toomey would win but give Dems the seat

[LynneSin]

There is no way an uber-conservative republican can win a general election in Pennsylvania ESPECIALLY after the record number of new voters we picked up in 2008.

In the primaries there are enough right-wing idiots to give Toomey the win but Toomey would be lucky to get 45% in the general election (Santorum lost by 19% in his 2006 re-election bid).

Good for Specter to do this although if he's smart he should just go independant and align democrat like Jim Jeffords did. Pennsylvanian Democrats know that if Specter runs as an independant there COULD be a chance that Toomey comes out the winner (because it would truly be a 3-way tie in that race). But whether Specter is a democrat or independant, the dems won't run anyone against Specter. Better to spend our money on the Governor race just in case (and I know this is a bit morbid but Specter is aging and not in the best of health) Specter dies and needs replacing. If the governor is a republican, Pennsylvania might end up with Toomey after all.

[sandrakae]

1. You are exactly right!!!!!!!!

This is the only reason this snake in the grass is doing this. I don't however find this good news. He always comes down on the Republican side. He pretends to be a moderate but when we really need a vote from him we dont get it.

[LynneSin]

2. He's no worse than the Nelsons or Joe Lieberman

and very unlikely that any democratic challenger could actually beat Specter in a primary.

Pennsylvania has 2 major races in 2010 - Senate and Governor. With Arlen on our team, the dems can focus all their money into the govenors race. And to be honest, with Specter's health, it's even more important that we keep the governor seat as a democrat. If republicans were to win the governor seat and Specter passes away - you could still see Toomey end up in the senate.

[Patiod]

3. Excellent analysts, and right on point, LS

Your proximity to our great commonwealth has served you well!

[LynneSin]

5. I lived in the commonwealth for over 30 years

I know the state well

[Patiod]

6. Yankin' the chain, Delaware girl

Just yankin' the chain

This news is making me punchy. God, I love politics (sometimes)

[Lone_Star_Dem]

4. You've got it right

I'm not thrilled by his switch, but I get the reasoning behind it in his mind. What I do wonder though is if he's going to have to vote more along our party line (at least until his election) to secure his Democratic seat. A smart Indy could slip in and exploit any and all votes he makes between now and then.

[PRETZEL]

7. Couple of good points already made,

personally I don't mind a great deal that Specter switched. Depending on what day of the week, it could sometimes be hard to see where he stood.

Pennsylvania is too big a state to run as an independant in the general election. No money from the party would assure defeat. This was his first re-election tactic.

[LynneSin]

8. Yes but Specter isn't a 'no-name'

Most independants fail because they have no true statewide support and weak name recognition. Provided that the democrats don't activily campaign against an independant Specter, Specter could win as an independant on name recognition alone. If anything I think he might do better since some republicans might refuse to switch parties because they feel betrayed.

[PRETZEL]

9. I don't think in this case, name recognition alone

would get Specter re-elected. He would need a pure grassroots campaign where moderates from both sides would effectively have to forego contributions to the party as a whole and donate to Specter in particular. The other option would be for them to split contributions. I don't see that happening.

The switch allows Specter to piggy back Congressional and State campaigns. I suspect as the general election season starts and the end to end trekking starts, we'll see a different rhetoric coming from him.

We benefit from his name recognition in the House and at a state level.

[LynneSin]

11. He couldn't do it if he went the route of Lieberman

which is start the campaign the day after he lost the primaries.

But if he were to run today as an independant with support from the DSCC (the way Sanders and Jeffords had it) then he could win.

[PRETZEL]

14. possibly,

that's a good point.

[JVS]

10. "There is no way an uber-conservative republican can win a general election in Pennsylvania"

I disagree. We had Santorum, so a RW loony is not out of the question. I can see one way for Specter to lose to Toomey in the general. Toomey will have energized the Republican base, Specter leaves the Democratic base limp. Especially with his moves against labor and other moderate dem constituencies in PA. He's going to need to rally our base a bit in order to get voters to show up.

[LynneSin]

12. Here is where you are wrong

Santorum won in 1994 when the Republicans had a major resurgance across the country with the "Contract 'on' America" lead by Newt Gingrich. Wolford was never really a strong candidate and got a great deal of backlash for supporting Clinton's Tax plan (he was appointed into his position after the death of moderate republican John Heinz and won the special run-off election).

Santorum SHOULD have lost the 2000 election and almost did excep the democrats really fucked up that election. There were at least 8-10 democrats who ran in the primaries including I believe 3 (at least 2) from the Philly region. The Philly democrats split their region votes and a no-name candidate from a small southwestern county (not in a Pittsburgh region county) managed to win the race. Ron Klink had absolutely no money to run a statewide race so he decided he could win the senate race without campaigning in expensive Philadelphia Markets. I lived in Philly and you constantly saw commericials that made Santorum look "Warm & Fuzzy" and Klink a horrible person. There were very few ads until the very end for Ron Klink.

Klink won the Philadelphia region but with hardly enough votes to make up the rest of the state. It's not that you need to win Philadelphia to win the state - you need to pull in big numbers with a high voter turnout. The last couple of campaigns I've worked in Philly - Rendell 2002 (both Primary and General), Kerry 2004, Casey Jr 2006, Obama 2008 - The democrats pull in massive numbers of volunteers and will go out to every region of the city to ensure the voters get to the polls.

Winning Pennsylvania requires TWO things - High voter turn out in Philly and a strong Philadelphia candidate. Specter defies these rules because he too is a strong Philly candidate. He may not win the Philly counties (there are 5) but he will pull much stronger numbers than the usual republican candidate.

[Mz Pip]

13. Now the Dems get to keep the seat

and not have to spend money for primary contests.

Toomey is a RW tool and will be the nominee but will lose. Oh, well.

[LynneSin]

15. Dems can put all that money into the other major statewide race in 2010

The Governor seat is up for grabs.

Michael Steele really fucked this one up.

Do you know since 1960 the PA Gov seat has switched parties every 8 years - usually owned by the same person for 2 terms. (remember Ridge resigned so techncially he had 8 years).

Had Steele played it safe he could have keep the seat repubulican with Specter and spend the big money trying to win the Governor seat (provided it wasn't a right-wing idiot like Lynn Swann or Rick Santorum). Not only did he give the seat to the democrats but he probably will lose the governor race too.

Pennsylvania will be entirely blue!