OK, keystone staters, who can we run against Snarlin' in the primary?

[cali]

surely PA can do better than this creep. He ain't no Jim Jeffords, that's for sure.

[scheming daemons]

1. Arlen will win both the Dem primary and the General

Most Democrats in the state grudgingly support the guy.

If he spends the next year and a half voting for Obama's agenda, he'll win easily.

[thewiseguy]

2. Exactly.

[L. Coyote]

5. Doubtful!

[scheming daemons]

6. I'm guessing you're not a Pennsylvanian.....

You're wrong.

Specter will win PA by a larger margin as a Dem than he ever won it as a Repub.

[LynneSin]

9. Only way a Specter could lose PA is if Philadelphia drops out of PA and merges with another state

Specter is amazingly popular in Philadelphia which is normally a democrat stronghold.

[L. Coyote]

10. First he has to win the Dem closed primary, right?

That means that over 50% of Dems in the primary have to support an interloper to the party, a self-serving interloper trying to ensure the Dems do not get the seat!

[LynneSin]

19. Many of them the same dems that kept Arlen winning general elections year after year

Looking at the voter breakdown for Pennsylvania it's a near impossibilty for a republican to win statewide. And that's not just from recent with the onslaught of new voter registrations from 2008 - that's a general concept.

Arlen has always been that exception to the rule. Arlen's hometown is Philadelphia and he's very well loved in that city. He'll go to the local Philly games, call up the local Philly sports stations and involve himself in local Philly events. Everyone in Philly has an Arlen story and most of them are pretty positive. Arlen wins statewide because he was moderate enough as a republican and he can keep the Philly votes at a level that the rest of the state will make up for it and give him the win.

He'll win.

[JVS]

12. How is he going to win in the general after just shitting all over unions?

Demotivated democratic base + people in the stix and other santorumite nuts being pumped for toomey= Republican win.

[Patiod]

3. There's your answer, fishbulb

There isn't anyone with the name recognition that we can run right now that will play well on both sides of the state.

I worked on two campaigns for Joe Hoeffel, and he's a GREAT guy, but he can't win west of Reading.

Sestak cuts a nice figure, but again, lacks statewide name recognition.

[Arkana]

4. Realize this--if Arlen plays ball, whoever you run won't have a chance.

That, I bet, was part of the deal. If Arlen plays nice with the other children and gives us another sure vote on important bills (and he might, now, without the worry of having to deal with GOP leadership), we won't back a primary challenger for the Democratic nomination in PA.

[billyoc]

7. Nobody will challenge Specter in the primary.

[L. Coyote]

11. Doubtful. Have you ever heard the word Progressive? Or, do you

want two Rs in he general to choose between?

[Freddie Stubbs]

15. A more accurate answer would have been "a nobody" will challenge Specter in the primary

[Renew Deal]

18. Obama will campaign for Specter.

And no on worth anything will be able to "primary" Specter. But you all can have fun trying.

[LynneSin]

8. They won't run a soul - that's probably part of the condition

I know this doesn't make sense but the guy is very popular in Pennsylvania and ESPECIALLY in Philadelphia (his home town). That's why he wins statewide elections where other republicans who are more hardcore to the right (ie Rick Santorum and Lynn Swann) lose in serious double digits (both in the high teens).

Philadelphia has no impact on a republican primary but serious impact in the general elections. Dems know that if they don't support Specter he could run as an independant and that is probably the only way that Pat Toomey has a fighting chance to win the general election. It's better to keep Arlen than to put a Rick Santorum clone in the senate again.

PLUS, there is another major race in 2010 - the governor race. Since 1959 one party has been able to hold the Governor House for 2 terms (usually by the same guy - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania_governor). With Specter not in good health, I suspect he might not make it the entire 6 year term. Last thing we want is a republican in the governor house that could appoint Toomey into that senate seat if something happens to Specter.

If Specter switches & runs as a democrat/independant that means the PA Dems can focus all their money on keeping the Governor seat blue.

[Freddie Stubbs]

13. No credible candidate

You may get some fringe guy who runs a "grassroots" (can't raise any money) campaign. Some clown ran against Casey in the 2006 primary and got stomped into the dust.

[librechik]

14. he won't be opposed by a dem--that was the deal.

[LynneSin]

17. Oh he'll have an opponent - I wouldn't doubt that...

just not someone with any connection to the PA Dem party.

Sure Joe Sestak will make a few waves by 'mulling' a run but personally I think he's the 'threat' to keep Arlen in line.

[Renew Deal]

16. Obama is going to campaign for him.

Have fun trying.