Specter will be 80 in next year's primary.

[rug]

His value is to this Congress only.

There are surely better Democratic nominees in 2010.

[Inuca]

1. He wants to run again AND

he was promised no dem challenger will get the party support.

As a side note, he seems to look better and better with each bout with cancer he goes through.

[rug]

3. Where did you read the no primary challege promise?

[SteppingRazor]

5. I can't speak to the person you're responding to, but...

I'd imagine that was a guarantee he got before switching parties, and one the Dems would be more than ready to grant him. If someone runs against Specter in a Dem. primary, it will be from outside the mainstream party -- no Ed Rendell, etc.

[LynneSin]

9. Why did Specter switch in the first place - because Republicans were running an opponent

And Specter can't win if he doesn't have Philadelphia behind him.

I heard Sestak say something like "let's see what happens" but Sestak is not as strong of a fundraiser as Specter (or Allyson Schwartz who has the Emily's List Juggernaut behind her). If anything, Sestak is doing that to help keep Specter honest - you fuck with the democrats we will back out of our promise of "no opponent"

[SteppingRazor]

14. Oh, I'm sure the DSCC won't hold up its end of a bargain that Specter breaks...

in that sense, Specter is probably more reliable than a lot of other Democratic Senators -- at least through the 2010 elections.

[LynneSin]

16. Exactly - I think that's the reason behind Sestak saying 'he won't rule it out'

What I'm reading is "If you fuck us over Specter I'll run against you in the primaries"

[Inuca]

17. Here

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/04/28/1912564.aspx Lots of details.

[cali]

2. barring a downturn in his health he'll run again

he's made that completely clear. He'll have the backing of Senate dems and the presiedent. And he's very popular with PA dems. He'll be even more popular.

[rug]

4. "very popular with PA dems" seems rather anecdotal.

There are several strong candidates within the Party, including Rendell himself.

[LynneSin]

7. Rendell probably helped broker the deal and made the promises on behalf of the Pa Dem party

they're good friends.

[LynneSin]

6. This is even BETTER than expected for the democrats

Now we pore all of our money into winning the Governor seat. For some strange reason the Governor seat in PA, since 1960, has switched parties every 8 years. The last 2 republicans were both considered moderates (Thornburgh and Ridge). If the trend continued and the republicans won Governor, you want that governor replacing Arlen Specter?

Specter is gonna play ball with the democrats - favors were probably made on both ends. But if something happens to Specter then we want a democrat in the governor seat picking Specter's replacment.

Trust me, that thought has crossed my mind many many times.

[rug]

11. Short term, there's no downside. Long term, though, someone else would be better.

Toomey may swarm Specter in a landslide in the 2010 general. He lost the 04 primary by less than half a point against a sitting incumbent.

[LynneSin]

13. Only way Toomey can win is 2 ways

One is Obama fucking things up so royally bad that there is some new "Contract 'on' America" like 1994. That's how a right-wing crazy like Santorum got in the last time. Most of the sucessful state-wide republicans were moderates - Specter and Ridge are both considered moderates.

The second way would be Philadelphia ceding from Pennsylvania and joining either Delaware or New Jersey.

The reason Toomey almost won in the primaries is that Philadelphia is a non-factor in Pennsylvania primaries. Philadelphia is Specter's hometown and Specter is very popular in the city. He might not win Philly as a republicans but he keeps the race close enough to make up the difference with the rest of the state.

[question everything]

8. But until then, he can help with our agenda

who knows what will happen after the 2010 elections? Or even before that. Grab this while we can.

[Bucky]

10. Eighty is the new 40

In fact, it's twice as good as the old 40.

[rug]

12. In the Senate, 60 is the new 50.

[tabbycat31]

15. and there are older senators