Scientists Struggle To Understand Swine Flu Virus

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Source: Associated Press

(04-29) 16:07 PDT ATLANTA, (AP) --

Mexico's health secretary may have thought he was allaying fears about swine flu when he suggested that the nation's swine flu death rate was 6 or 7 percent. In reality, that would mean a monstrous killer virus — and no experts are close to saying that. The secretary's comment reflects how much remains unknown about the new flu virus — most notably how lethal it is and why it seems so much deadlier in Mexico than anywhere else.

American health officials believe they are getting closer to answering those questions, or, at least, to ruling out wrong-headed theories.

"We've begun to knock off hypotheses," said Dr. Scott F. Dowell, director of global disease detection with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Among the factors disease detectives have discounted are Mexico's air pollution, secondary infections and poor health care. But they still do not know why so many Mexicans have died, although it could be because many more people actually have had the virus than health officials realize.

In Mexico, the virus is suspected of killing more than 150 people and sickening more than 2,400. Recent information suggests swine flu-related hospital admissions and deaths may have peaked and are declining, but no other country has shown any numbers close to those seen in Mexico.

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