How To: Measure North Korea’s Nuclear Blast

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North Korea’s official mouthpieces are crowing about a successful nuclear weapons test. But how do we know what really happened? By checking the seismic data, scouring the satellite images — and sending in the “Constant Phoenix.”

Measurement and signature intelligence — a.k.a. MASINT — is one of the key disciplines for detecting a nuclear event. It starts with seismic data. The U.S. Geological Survey yesterday reported an earthquake in North Korea that measured 4.7 on the Richter scale. That’s more powerful than the tremors that resulted from North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006 – which the U.S. Geological Survey estimated at 4.2 (the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization gave it 4.0; The South Koreans put it between 3.58 and 3.7).

Richter scale measurements, however, don’t provide a direct calculation of yield. As our own Jeffrey Lewis commented after the first North Korean nuclear test, “estimating the yield is tricky business, because it depends on the geology of the test site.” Helpfully, though, the event took place near Poongkye-ri in North Hamkyong Province, which, as China’s Xinhua news agency notes, is the same area where the North Koreans conducted the first nuclear test on Oct. 9, 2006. So in terms of geography, we may have something of an apples-to-apples comparison. Figuring out if a seismic event is an earthquake or a bomb blast is relatively easy.

Scientists do more than look at the strength of seismic impact. They also examine the wave patterns from seismic sensors, to spot the difference between nuke-inspired tremors and earthquakes. “In highly simplified terms, in an earthquake, the ground starts shaking slowly as plates slide against each other, and then the seismic activity slow picks up as the ground really starts to move. In an explosion scenario, the initial blast is extremely power­ful, and the subsequent shaking of the ground grows progressively less severe,” How Stuff Works explains.

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/05/how-to-measure-north-koreas-nuclear-blast/

Now I know.