It is still too early to know for sure, but what is your early prediction for Iran?

[Stinky The Clown]

Poll question: It is still too early to know for sure, but what is your early prediction for Iran?

[Occam Bandage]

1. Predictions: There will be a week or so of protests, one or two might turn violent,

there will be a crackdown, no more than 100 will die, and Iran will further restrict freedoms in the aftermath.

[MADem]

7. You are probably right. I think your scenario is likely, unless something very big and bad

happens tomorrow at the protests, or as a consequence of them. Then, there could be a "big flip." But there would have to be violence first, I think.

No one thought Shah would fall--and maybe if he hadn't been sick and so many of his best advisors had taken a powder, he might have prevailed. But it was a situation reminiscent of this one, with people in the streets and on the rooftops. The big difference is that I don't see guns in the hands of the reformers this time around. The "Powerful Iranian Government" (PIG) has all the guns.

[BlooInBloo]

2. I haven't seen enough similar situations to hazard a decent guess.

[saltpoint]

3. This and near-era future regimes will not ultimately be able to stop

modernity from reaching critical mass in Iran.

Modern Iran will rise and be formidable on the world stage in an extraordinary blend of modern sciences and arts with its glorious past as mythic Persia. It will lead forward by looking long back.

[EFerrari]

4. I can't even go there. Just worried about the real people that are living this.

My family went through this shit twice in El Salvador. It's not all flags, balloons and pancake breakfasts. I wish them all life.

[clear eye]

5. I've got two answers

In the short run, I figure it'll play out like Mexico, w/ Ahmadi-Nejad staying in office for a while. W/i the next couple of years, though, dissatisfaction will build and something will bring it to a head. Then the public will exert enough pressure on the already restive clerics that they replace him w/ a more moderate who is more acceptable to the outside world, rather than risk being overthrown themselves.

[timeforpeace]

6. Other: President Obama issues a statement

saying we do not recognize dinnerjacket as president of Iran, protests are energized and keep going for months, we then dangle an offer of "end nuke program and we'll recognize you and renew ties and the influx of foreign capital will get the people off your back." That's what used to be called statesmanship. I mean, how bad can it be to do this. What, are the mullahs gonna try to build a nuke or start sponsoring terror or something? Oh yeah, they already are.

[Stinky The Clown]

8. One problem with that ........... oil

They got it and **everyone** wants it. Our sanctions will not mean even diddly squat.

[napoleon_in_rags]

9. Other: They will remain somewhat destabilized for a time.

Then Israel will do something insane and the country will consolidate under Ahmadinejad again.

[ZombieHorde]

10. Iran unleashes a zombie plague which takes hold in every industrialized country

in the world and eventually teaches us the true meaning of Christmas. Bet on it.

[EFerrari]

13. Now you're just drumming up new work.

:)

[Baikonour]

11. I think a protest will turn extremely violent.

And then foreign intervention will follow.

After that, things could get better or worse.

[charlie]

12. Tianamen Square, Prague Spring

We'll watch with our hearts in our mouths, hoping against hope a New Day is aborning for them... then they'll get stomped flat.

[1]

14. pretty much iran being iran. this is not new. have you not been paying attention?

[Sebastian Doyle]

15. Mushroom clouds in Tehran

courtesy of that goddamned genocidal lunatic in Tel Aviv :nuke: :nuke: :evilfrown:

[Raine]

16. These protests will lead to nothing

the only way the government will change is to become more repressive and hardcore IMO. :-(

[fujiyama]

17. Something along the lines of Tienanmen

In the end I doubt we'll see major institutional changes. A few hundred dead maybe. Some tighter controls on media and communications.

One major difference between Iran and China, is the economic progress China has made. They've been able to kill dissent and political reforms because they've had tremendous economic growth. People have cell phones and ipods and other junk so they're fat and happy. It's basically the same reason we sat on our asses after the '00 and '04 elections. Now Iran isn't exactly poor, but it's economy hasn't done well under A-jad. Unemployment and inflation are high.

Iran may end up more isolated economically and politically at the end of all this. Maybe the discontent and frustration will grow further if inflation keeps at the rate it is now (it was 30%+ recently).

But if Netanyahu starts something, well we may end up seeing the similar boost in support A-jad got in the first place due to Bush. Of course if Netanyahu starts something, it could lead to a major world conflict. Hopefully they'll keep their cool.