North Dakota, Byron Dorgan, and Hard Right Voters

[Stinky The Clown]

Let me start by saying that I don't know anything about North Dakota politics.

Dorgan, who is a good liberal senator, has been sent back to the Senate more than once by North Dakota's voters. If it is as hard right a state as the "pundits" are telling us, how was that possible? Did he have a great press secretary who was able to spin his liberal votes as something else for the crowd back home? Were all the supposed hard right voters paid not to show up? Did Diebold work this state opposite all the others it fucked with?

Here's what I think, just based on some simple reasoning: North Dakota isn't all that hard right. And if Byron Dorgan can get reelected more than once, a Democrat can succeed him. Look at North Dakota's neighbors. There are some elected Democrats there - more than a few, actually - and the numbers are trending our way.

I wish we had a media that would report things in depth and not simply spout what serves their own purposes.

If someone has a better understanding of North Dakota politics or sees things differently than I, please weigh in.

[existentialist]

1. I know one factor.

The Republican Governor who was weighing a run against him, is very popular. Popular enough that some North Dakota political observers stated that his popularity in running for reelection as governor in 2008, had a reverse coattail effect in helping McCain carry the state which would otherwise have been very close.

I'm from South Dakota, but at the time of the 2008 election I was commuting across the state line to work in North Dakota. That's close enough to pick up some North Dakota perspective.

[Stinky The Clown]

2. Thanks, that's helpful

Is it fair to say that party matters less than policy there? Or am I giving too much credit?

[existentialist]

3. I don't know.

[Stinky The Clown]

4. What about in South Dakota?

I can't believe there's all that much difference between the two populations. Neither state strikes me as hard right.

[existentialist]

5. Well, traditionally South Dakota has been closer to the right

than North Dakota.

Both states went for McCain in 2008, but by less than 10%. The fact that South Dakota was actually a bit closer than North Dakota is one factor supporting the reverse coattails effect mentioned a couple of posts up thread.

That stated, both have some history of moderation, and have elected a large number of Democrats to their House and Senate seats probably in large part because the local Republicans have repeatedly nominated candidates who were more to the right than the populations of the two states as a whole.

If a moderate Democrat of some standing has run against a wing nut Republican in North or South Dakota in the last half century,generally speaking the Democrat has at least made things close, and has often won.

Democrats from South Dakota include:

McGovern, Daschle, Abourezck, Johnson, Herseth-Sandlin.

OK, some of these Democrats are a lot less Democratic than some of us might like, but they have won here precisely because they looked like (and largely were, Republican caricatures of them notwithstanding) pretty much moderate voices. OK, maybe McGovern was not always a moderate, but he pretty much was when first elected.

Many registered Republicans (like my father and recently deceased mother) are so registered only because until just recently, one could only vote in the primary of the party in which one was registered, and usually the Republican primary mattered more.

That has just changed in the past year. Now only Republicans can vote in the Republican primary, but both independents and Democrats will be able to vote in the Democratic primaries starting this year. I think this change will help Democrats because a voter who has voted for a candidate in a primary is probably more likely to vote for the same candidate again in the general election if the chance occurs.

[Odin2005]

6. Eastern ND is moderate to Liberal. Western ND is hyper-Libertarian.

It is generally social issues and the Libertarianism of the western part of the state that makes it generally red. Appeal to left-libertarian anti-corporate themes and we can win.